It's too quiet in here....

[Entity]

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I'm not sure about the rest but I'm sure my hand is strong enough to check raise the river with. What exactly do I have to be afraid of? A badly played flush is it as far as I can see. (Outside chance of a 2 pair including the 7 both because I have one and also because the flush might protect me from being 3-bet anyway)

Krishan

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Most of the time, given how he's played the hand, I don't see him calling the c/r but I can see him calling a normal bet a lot. When he calls the c/r I don't know that your hand will be good > 50% of the time. Given how weakly he has played the hand I don't think he'll bluff or value bet the river nearly as often as he'll call.

Rob

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Okay, what hands beat me? Both you and TStone said this and it didn't occur to me. Can you spell it out for me? I figured I was ahead by a huge amount.

Krishan

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I think you are ahead by a huge amount. But I think there are a ton of hands that will check behind when you check, few hands that will bluff given how passively he has played the hand so far, and if you get 2 bets in on the river, I don't think your hand is going to be good very often. Does that make more sense? I think you've got the best hand a fair % of the time here when you bet and are called, but when you c/r and are called, I think that # goes down significantly. I just don't see Q5o betting this river and paying a c/r off very often at all.

Rob

[krishanleong]

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I think you are ahead by a huge amount. But I think there are a ton of hands that will check behind when you check, few hands that will bluff given how passively he has played the hand so far, and if you get 2 bets in on the river, I don't think your hand is going to be good very often. Does that make more sense? I think you've got the best hand a fair % of the time here when you bet and are called, but when you c/r and are called, I think that # goes down significantly. I just don't see Q5o betting this river and paying a c/r off very often at all.

Rob

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Okay, I understand that you don't think my check raise will be called very often. But that doesn't mean I won't be good very often when it is called necessarily. I just can't read this guy into a flush and the only 2 pair combination I'll can see is Q7.

Krishan

[Entity]

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I think you are ahead by a huge amount. But I think there are a ton of hands that will check behind when you check, few hands that will bluff given how passively he has played the hand so far, and if you get 2 bets in on the river, I don't think your hand is going to be good very often. Does that make more sense? I think you've got the best hand a fair % of the time here when you bet and are called, but when you c/r and are called, I think that # goes down significantly. I just don't see Q5o betting this river and paying a c/r off very often at all.

Rob

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Okay, I understand that you don't think my check raise will be called very often. But that doesn't mean I won't be good very often when it is called necessarily. I just can't read this guy into a flush and the only 2 pair combination I'll can see is Q7.

Krishan

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What hands do you think he'd play this way that he'd call with your c/r with that your hand is good against? Do you think they're 2x as likely as hands that he'd call a bet with?

It's pretty hard to put him on a hand since he played it so passively, but I def. def. think a bet is better than a c/r (and I normally [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] river c/r's).

Rob

[baronzeus]

I like it if you are check-raising the river and folding to a 3bet.


Edit: Check-raising is clearly better than betting. He will call your check-raise with any A or Q probably, and busted draws that try to bluff will pay 1 bet rather than 0.

[Entity]

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I like it if you are check-raising the river and folding to a 3bet.


Edit: Check-raising is clearly better than betting. He will call your check-raise with any A or Q probably, and busted draws that try to bluff will pay 1 bet rather than 0.

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There aren't that many busted draws, and IMO you've been running v. v. hot if you've been getting a river c/r paid off with Qx by a TAG after you raised preflop, bet flop and turn on an AQ9x board, and checkraised the river when the flush draw arrived. Given how passively the TAG has played so far -- especially given krishan's insistence that he's a "good" TAG -- there's no way checkraising is "obviously" better than betting. I agree that Ax pays off but I don't think he has Ax here very often at all given how the hand played out.

Rob

[Surfbullet]

I agree with others, this river is going to get checked through alot when villain should be calling a bet because even TAGs don't fold a medium pair despite the board getting dangerous.

The c/r is sweet when it happens but i don't think he'll bet-call often enough. If you are bet-calling a Q or weak ace here I think that's a leak IMO.

Surf

[sthief09]

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I like it if you are check-raising the river and folding to a 3bet.


Edit: Check-raising is clearly better than betting. He will call your check-raise with any A or Q probably, and busted draws that try to bluff will pay 1 bet rather than 0.

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busted draws are likely to have semi-bluffed. if you call you will get paid by a pair. if you c/r, a pair might not bet and unless we're beat a c/r isn't getting paid off. c/r'ing seems pretty bad to me

[baronzeus]

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unless we're beat a c/r isn't getting paid off.

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Maybe I'm wrong about this one. But I feel like the statement above isn't true--any A or Q will pay me off (usually) because they have no idea what's going on.

[sthief09]

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unless we're beat a c/r isn't getting paid off.

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Maybe I'm wrong about this one. But I feel like the statement above isn't true--any A or Q will pay me off (usually) because they have no idea what's going on.

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i think its rare that someone flops top pair headsup and doesnt raise the flop or turn. i dont think a Q pays off very often at all

[baronzeus]

Yeah, and after reading all of Krishan's insistances that villain is a good TAG I think he will bet here but not call a c/r often, unless Krishan is wrong.