A Pure Math Situation

[gaming_mouse]

Brad,

Thanks for that excellent analysis.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]

So when a very good player raises the flop, I start worrying that he has AA or KK and don't really fear QQ down. Then to mix it up he should also raise big flush draws (say AQs and AJs). So in that case you will be somewhere in the range of a 9:1 dog and you are getting 9.7:1 to call the turn. You can see why this would put you in a quagmire.

[/ QUOTE ]

One thing though. How did you come up with 9:1 dog. There are 2 big flush draw combos, and 6 ways to make either AA or KK. So we are a 6:2 or 3:1 dog, no? And now calling down seems much more attractive versus a good player. What am I missing?

[Shillx]

AJ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] just passed us on the turn. AQ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] has 12 outs against us and another 5 outs to chop.


3,960 games 0.005 secs 792,000 games/sec

Board: 7d 6d 7h Js
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 10.0379 % 09.47% 00.57% { AKo }
Hand 2: 89.9621 % 89.39% 00.57% { KK+, AdQd, AdJd }

Now for a river blank...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

90 games 0.005 secs 18,000 games/sec

Board: 7d 6d 7h Js 2c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 10.0000 % 10.00% 00.00% { AKo }
Hand 2: 90.0000 % 90.00% 00.00% { KK+, AdQd, AdJd }

So against this range we either have to fold the turn or calldown. Notice how the equity doesn't change when the river bricks.

[gaming_mouse]

Oh, thank you. I really wasn't thinking.

[BWebb]

In your math, isn't it incorrect to include bets you put in on later streets? Calling down from the turn you against AK it is (9/24)*(4.3) since you are making the decision on the turn. Same with QQ, (6/24)((6/44*8.7)+(38/44*-2) and so on. It still is a calldown, but I'm getting about +0.82 in my calculations.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
In your math, isn't it incorrect to include bets you put in on later streets? Calling down from the turn you against AK it is (9/24)*(4.3) since you are making the decision on the turn. Same with QQ, (6/24)((6/44*8.7)+(38/44*-2) and so on. It still is a calldown, but I'm getting about +0.82 in my calculations.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand what you are doing. In my calculation, the 5.3 is half of what you will win if you call down and split the pot. It includes the two additional bets your opponent puts in.

[SackUp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Where is the option for peel the turn and fold the river UI?

I think a lot of players will raise AK on the flop and continue through on the turn, but then check behind on the river.

I don't think a TAG is betting AK on the river UI too often, so we can safely fold for that bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is interesting. However, think of it from his POV. After peeling the turn, we have an AK sticker on our forehead. If he has AK too, folding our AK is a pretty nice proposition, especially since a raise is unlikely and he could safely fold to one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, though this is assuming a lot of things.

1) that he knows we are also a TAG.
2) He is a smart TAG and can pick up on this.
3) He is willing to bluff 3 streets in a row.

I'm not saying this is not possible, but I don't see this too often in the 2/4 games I'm playing. Heck I don't see this in many upper limit games either.

So I don't think many TAGs are making this move too often. And even if they did sometimes, I think the times they don't far outway the times they do.

Otherwise if we are just calling down anyhow, then the river should be a b/f line so we have the chance to fold his AK or AQ.

[BWebb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In your math, isn't it incorrect to include bets you put in on later streets? Calling down from the turn you against AK it is (9/24)*(4.3) since you are making the decision on the turn. Same with QQ, (6/24)((6/44*8.7)+(38/44*-2) and so on. It still is a calldown, but I'm getting about +0.82 in my calculations.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand what you are doing. In my calculation, the 5.3 is half of what you will win if you call down and split the pot. It includes the two additional bets your opponent puts in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a moron, I misread and got that there was 7.7 in the pot pre-bet.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In your math, isn't it incorrect to include bets you put in on later streets? Calling down from the turn you against AK it is (9/24)*(4.3) since you are making the decision on the turn. Same with QQ, (6/24)((6/44*8.7)+(38/44*-2) and so on. It still is a calldown, but I'm getting about +0.82 in my calculations.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand what you are doing. In my calculation, the 5.3 is half of what you will win if you call down and split the pot. It includes the two additional bets your opponent puts in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a moron, I misread and got that there was 7.7 in the pot pre-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

When we're locked into a split on the turn, our share of the pot is 4.35 BBs (minus rake). We have no share of any turn or river bets our opponent makes, but we have to match those bets to claim our half of the 8.7 BB pot that existed when the turn betting began.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]

Otherwise if we are just calling down anyhow, then the river should be a b/f line so we have the chance to fold his AK or AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a really good point, especially against this player, who will almost never bluff raise the river. The choice should have been between fold, or c/call followed by bet/fold on the river.

I still don't like c/call and fold UI. Even ignoring the chance that we fold a chopping hand on the river (and it is nonzero, though you make a good case for its being unlikely), we are not getting the odds we need because our hand will be good less than 50% of the time even when we hit.