A Pure Math Situation

gaming_mouse · #1 12-02-2005, 04:35 PM

Villain is a TAG on the less agressive side. After the flop action, we can safely put him on the typical PF capping range, excluding TT.

I'll put my analysis in a separate post, so people can vote first without being influenced.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG calls, Hero caps, Button calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (13.40 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, Button raises, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.70 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets

gaming_mouse · #2 12-02-2005, 04:37 PM

I thought this situation was interesting because the correct play was precisely calculable, although it also depends also on our read of villains agression.

AK - 9
AA - 3
KK - 3
QQ - 6
JJ - 3

Giving all hands equal weight, we have clear calldown:

(9/24)*5.3 + (6/24)( (6/44)*10.7 + (38/44)*-2) + (9/24)(-2) = 1.17

But it might be more realistic to discount AK and QQ about 50%, in which case it becomes much closer:

(4/17)*5.3 + (3/17)( (6/44)*10.7 + (38/44)*-2) + (9/17)(-2) = .14

And one could argue that, given my description of villain, we should discount AK even further, and that would swing our decision to a fold.

On a related note, does anyone have any tricks that would allow one to make EV calculations like these in your head anywhere close to possible?

Nick C · #3 12-02-2005, 04:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I thought this situation was interesting because the correct play was precisely calculable, although it also depends also on our read of villains agression.

AK - 9
AA - 3
KK - 3
QQ - 6
JJ - 3

Giving all hands equal weight, we have clear calldown:

(9/24)*5.3 + (6/24)( (6/44)*10.7 + (38/44)*-2) + (9/24)(-2) = 1.17

[/ QUOTE ]

I was glad to read this, because based on the premises as I understood them, the calldown seemed easy to me, even without taking into account our chances of improving on the river to overtake KK/QQ.

[ QUOTE ]
But it might be more realistic to discount AK and QQ about 50%, in which case it becomes much closer:

(4/17)*5.3 + (3/17)( (6/44)*10.7 + (38/44)*-2) + (9/17)(-2) = .14

And one could argue that, given my description of villain, we should discount AK even further, and that would swing our decision to a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, if our read regarding how Villain will play his various possible holdings isn't so certain (and, at the table, it usually isn't), then the decisions become more complicated.

gaming_mouse · #4 12-02-2005, 05:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Yeah, if our read regarding how Villain will play his various possible holdings isn't so certain (and, at the table, it usually isn't), then the decisions become more complicated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, in the heat of battle I could not do the calculation, and I folded. But I actually think that now, even having done it, I would still fold. It seems to me that players like the one I described will not raise the flop here with AK nearly as much as 50% of the time.

SackUp · #5 12-02-2005, 05:18 PM

Where is the option for peel the turn and fold the river UI?

I think a lot of players will raise AK on the flop and continue through on the turn, but then check behind on the river.

I don't think a TAG is betting AK on the river UI too often, so we can safely fold for that bet.

SackUp · #6 12-02-2005, 05:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
we can safely put him on the typical PF capping range, excluding TT

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if I agree with this. I think 99 and 1010 are playing this flop and turn the exact same way.

Shillx · #7 12-02-2005, 05:49 PM

Sorry if this post is super confusing.

I don't know what a typical hand range is here, but this is what I'm thinking when he raises the flop.

AA - KK > AQ - Ax [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (dunno what x is) > QQ > JJ >> AK and TT

So if TT isn't an option for his range here, I don't really think that AK should be included either. I don't really like just calling the turn and folding the river UI because we will sometimes be folding the best hand. If he can have JJ+/AQ-AT [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], we are making a mistake should we fold it on a brick.

A good player should be playing this hand really carefully with soemthing like JJ or TT imo. If he has JJ, he is behind when you have a better overpair and he has the 3rd player drawing really thin when you have overcards. If JJ is actually the best hand on this board, it does him no good to knock out any potential losses in the deck (namely aces through queens) that the 3rd player might hold since you are holding them too when the jacks are good. Let the guy put bets in with KT when he is drawing to running tens or a running 9+8.

So when a very good player raises the flop, I start worrying that he has AA or KK and don't really fear QQ down. Then to mix it up he should also raise big flush draws (say AQs and AJs). So in that case you will be somewhere in the range of a 9:1 dog and you are getting 9.7:1 to call the turn. You can see why this would put you in a quagmire.

Against someone who plays a bit worse I would probably calldown because you will see lower overpairs more. And if I don't outdraw them, I'm getting such a good price to call the river and hope that they are on a flush draw or AK. I'm sure it will win $$$ net but if he can't have TT (and therefore can't have AK) when he raises the flop (but can have JJ) I would fold the turn.

Brad

#8 12-02-2005, 05:52 PM

I lay this down. You're not getting the odds to call to more bets to win >11 (minus whatever they would rake from there).

Seperately, do you guys cap this preflop? Esp given the read, I think just calling the 3 bet is okay, though with UTG in there to pad the pot I'm not saying it's a mistake or anything to cap. HU I just call down the 3 bet for sure given your read. (Comments despite my low post count?)

gaming_mouse · #9 12-02-2005, 05:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Where is the option for peel the turn and fold the river UI?

I think a lot of players will raise AK on the flop and continue through on the turn, but then check behind on the river.

I don't think a TAG is betting AK on the river UI too often, so we can safely fold for that bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is interesting. However, think of it from his POV. After peeling the turn, we have an AK sticker on our forehead. If he has AK too, folding our AK is a pretty nice proposition, especially since a raise is unlikely and he could safely fold to one.

gaming_mouse · #10 12-02-2005, 05:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
we can safely put him on the typical PF capping range, excluding TT

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if I agree with this. I think 99 and 1010 are playing this flop and turn the exact same way.

[/ QUOTE ]

He was on the timid side of TAG, so I didn't that he would. You are right that these a possibilities though, and a more thorough analysis would include them, discounted appropriately.

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