semi-weird 200/400 bellagio hand - Page 3

ggbman · #21 12-02-2005, 02:28 PM

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Some interesting analysis from very good posters, but I think it's a little more straightforward than some are making it out to be:

1. Solid SB raises several limpers preflop. Range: Big pair, AK-AJs, some suited connectors or big suited one-gappers.

2. Solid SB calls a flop 3 bet. Range: We can eliminate the suiteds unless they're spades. So now we've got AK, KQs-KJs, or two spades.

3. We still have girl to worry about.

So, when the third spade hits the board it seems exceedingly unlikely that you're ahead of SB, with a good chance that you're drawing dead. Seems like a pretty clear check to me, and possibly a river fold for even just one more bet if it comes from the SB.

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Everyone should read this, because this an EXCELLENT analysis IMO.

Furthermore, some hands that have you beat still might check this river in fear that the lady missed her CR giving you a freeshown. it's not likely, but if it happens 10% of the time it's worth considering.

There are not too many non-spade draw hands that are peeling here, so giving free cards shouldn't be a concern here because more often you are getting check-raised by better hands, or at least called down whereas you could have saved a bet by checking.

andyfox · #22 12-02-2005, 05:45 PM

Plus nobody's folding a better hand or a hand with a draw. And they're good enough to check-raise either.

I swung back and forth between betting and checking as I read each response. Tough spot, as K-To often is.

limon · #23 12-02-2005, 06:26 PM

you...get beat in 2 places. take a free one and fold.

J.A.Sucker · #24 12-02-2005, 07:43 PM

Hi BK,

Check. You are in deep kimchee.

#25 12-03-2005, 12:20 AM

fold preflop. given that, though, i check behind. this is a WAWB situation and I am really concerned about the multiway action.

DeeJ · #26 12-03-2005, 01:13 PM

no message apart from

what happened next?

MattiasL · #27 12-03-2005, 01:52 PM

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fold preflop. given that, though, i check behind. this is a WAWB situation and I am really concerned about the multiway action.

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This is most definitely not a WAWB situation. There are a lot of probable draws out there. Especially the spades.

DcifrThs · #28 12-03-2005, 02:05 PM

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Hi BK,

Check. You are in deep kimchee.

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mmmmmm

bet b/c i like kimchee [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Barron

Baulucky · #29 12-07-2005, 08:27 PM

How much did you lose in this hand?.

jetsonsdogcanfly · #30 12-07-2005, 10:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's a little more straightforward than some are making it out to be:

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My version of straightforward: This pot is huge, there are probably around 18 cards that beat you if you are ahead.

I think the sb is getting odds to call lots of hand on the flop, getting 8.5 to 1. He may fold no spade hands or lone weak spades to the turn bet.

I for some reason just don't see a c/r from that many hands that beat you, unless these are players that hate to donk. I'd almost expect a c/r to be more likely to be a bluff. Come to think of it, I just wouldn't really expect a c/r.