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#1
11-17-2005, 11:14 PM
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Colts 16-0?
Will the Colts go 16-0 in the regular season?
On Pinnacle: Yes +518 No -568 Am I the only one that thinks "No" is a very good bet? 
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#2
11-17-2005, 11:23 PM
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Re: Colts 16-0?
How did you figure that the "no" was a very good bet? The best thing to do is figure out the % chance they have of winning each of their matchups and then multiplying them all together.
craig p.s. Of course, you might have already done this.
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#3
11-17-2005, 11:31 PM
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Re: Colts 16-0?
Hmm, this must be new - I was looking for this bet on pinnacle a couple weeks back. Going to put money on 'yes'.
Looks like i'll be at the xmas eve game - Indy at Seattle. Woot woot!
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#4
11-17-2005, 11:36 PM
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Re: Colts 16-0?
they arent going undefeated
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#5
11-17-2005, 11:43 PM
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Re: Colts 16-0?
[ QUOTE ]
they arent going undefeated [/ QUOTE ] Probably not, but one of the things I'd like to see in my lifetime is those damned 72 dolphins stop toasting champagne every time the last undefeated team loses. So I'm jumping on the colts bandwagon.
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#6
11-17-2005, 11:54 PM
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Re: Colts 16-0?
If you put the odds of the Colts chance of winning against these 5 teams: the Bengals, Pittsburgh (they'll have Ben back), San Diego, Seattle, Jacksonville at 70% (which is insanely high IMHO), that alone gives you a 83% chance of the Colts losing a game.
Give the Colts 90% vs. Tennesee and Arizona, and that's about all you need to bet no. Plus, Tony Dungy might want to rest his starters once the Colts have home field locked up, and that chance doesn't need to be more than 10% to fade the Colts. I think this is one of the most lopsided bets all year. Take no, and earn lots of money. I would also make sure to take this bet before the Cincinatti game.
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#7
11-17-2005, 11:55 PM
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Re: Colts 16-0?
before placing the bet, id look at the futures lines at all of your different books for all of their remaining games to see if theres better value betting it that way (or perhaps theres an arb in there somewhere).
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#8
11-18-2005, 10:34 AM
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Re: Colts 16-0?
[ QUOTE ]
Plus, Tony Dungy might want to rest his starters once the Colts have home field locked up, and that chance doesn't need to be more than 10% to fade the Colts. [/ QUOTE ] This is an interesting point. Let's say the Colts are 15-0 and have home field locked up. Does Dungy rest his starters or go for win #16?
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#9
11-18-2005, 11:36 AM
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Re: Colts 16-0?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Plus, Tony Dungy might want to rest his starters once the Colts have home field locked up, and that chance doesn't need to be more than 10% to fade the Colts. [/ QUOTE ] This is an interesting point. Let's say the Colts are 15-0 and have home field locked up. Does Dungy rest his starters or go for win #16? [/ QUOTE ] Goes for the win, absolutely. I can't see being that close to accomplishing a perfect season, and opting to rest starters.
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#10
11-20-2005, 07:24 AM
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Re: Colts 16-0?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Plus, Tony Dungy might want to rest his starters once the Colts have home field locked up, and that chance doesn't need to be more than 10% to fade the Colts. [/ QUOTE ] This is an interesting point. Let's say the Colts are 15-0 and have home field locked up. Does Dungy rest his starters or go for win #16? [/ QUOTE ] Goes for the win, absolutely. I can't see being that close to accomplishing a perfect season, and opting to rest starters. [/ QUOTE ] I actually think you are wrong. He will care about winning a Super Bowl and from their super easy schedule this season, it is far from guaranteed they will get there. It is just like Manning taking a knee at the end of week 17? when he could have broken the record.
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