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  #21  
Old 11-02-2005, 03:05 AM
MrWookie47 MrWookie47 is offline
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Default Re: A couple of hands I played tonight

One other thing. How often are hands like QJ and T9 actually calling on this board for a single bet? If those are the hands we most want to fold, they'd have to be a lot more than your garden variety donks to call a single bet. I don't want to invest two if they're gone anyway.
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  #22  
Old 11-02-2005, 12:22 PM
MrWookie47 MrWookie47 is offline
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Default Re: A couple of hands I played tonight

I'm going to bump this. There's good stuff here, and I'm not convinced OP made good plays, particularly in the 2nd hand.
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  #23  
Old 11-02-2005, 12:28 PM
car ramrod car ramrod is offline
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Default Re: A couple of hands I played tonight

I also like a check behind on the river in hand 1.

Hand 2 I like.
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  #24  
Old 11-02-2005, 12:46 PM
McGahee McGahee is offline
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Default Re: A couple of hands I played tonight

[ QUOTE ]
OK, I see three people saying that this is the best thing since sliced bread. You're going to have to help me out on this one. I'm clearly too stupid.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm with you on both hands.
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  #25  
Old 11-02-2005, 01:07 PM
gharp gharp is offline
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Default Re: A couple of hands I played tonight

Hand 1 I'm not betting the river. I probably would bet the turn, but I'd like a better read on the guy (is he a chronic flop-peeler, like so many 50 VPIP's are?)

Hand 2 I'm not calling preflop. Since you did, I'm down with the flop check-raise.
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  #26  
Old 11-02-2005, 01:13 PM
McGahee McGahee is offline
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Default Re: A couple of hands I played tonight

[ QUOTE ]

Hand 2 I'm not calling preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I forgot that. Fold PF.
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  #27  
Old 11-02-2005, 03:32 PM
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Default Re: A couple of hands I played tonight

Hand 2, I don't understand the call in the SB with this hand. You need more limpers.

And I don't raise this flop. Call. You don't want to get 3-bet by a guy who just hit his ace.
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  #28  
Old 11-02-2005, 10:57 PM
Redd Redd is offline
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Default Re: A couple of hands I played tonight

I made a mental note to bump this for the evening crowd this afternoon, since I think hand 2 is especially unsettled. I think this is also a really important concept.

I'm inclined to agree with Wooks' math here; sure, we gain 1SB when both opponents fold, but this doesn't consider:

1) reverse implied odds, even if we fold the other two guys, that aren't accounted for in the equity
2) the chance that they'll fold a hand we want to fold for one bet anyways
3) the chance that the won't fold a hand we want them to fold for two bets
4) the chance that the aggressor will 3-bet us regardless of what happens

I think that the possible outcomes fan out so quickly here that a brute mathematical analysis isn't possible without some problem-trivializing assumptions. But it seems intuitive to me that the chance of everything succeeding and us actually getting that extra sklansky SB is pretty small compared to all the other outcomes, most of which cost us a fair fraction a bet.

I'm curious to hear more from everone else why they feel/don't feel that the chance we'll make 1SB is worth the risk that all of the above four things won't happen.

(BTW, I don't mind betting or checking the turn in hand 1 but either way I'm not value-betting the river).
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  #29  
Old 11-02-2005, 11:46 PM
McGahee McGahee is offline
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Default Re: A couple of hands I played tonight

What am I missing with this hand and why is it even close? If a newb posts this line he gets scorched.
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  #30  
Old 11-03-2005, 06:55 PM
mmbt0ne mmbt0ne is offline
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Default Re: A couple of hands I played tonight

Ok, let me try to give you some of my thoughts on the second hand.

[ QUOTE ]
1) reverse implied odds, even if we fold the other two guys, that aren't accounted for in the equity

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a lot of money in the pot. We don't really need to make more money from him when we're ahead, we need to scoop ASAP.

[ QUOTE ]
2) the chance that they'll fold a hand we want to fold for one bet anyways

[/ QUOTE ]

I never trust people to fold for 1 bet when I want them to and have the chance to make their call a mistake by raising.

[ QUOTE ]
3) the chance that the won't fold a hand we want them to fold for two bets

[/ QUOTE ]

If they call after the raise, considering the pot size, it's almost surely a mistake given the hand ranges they should put button and hero on.

[ QUOTE ]
4) the chance that the aggressor will 3-bet us regardless of what happens

[/ QUOTE ]

This would be bad, but if/when it happens we can adjust our gameplan for that.

Basically, if this situation my main goal is to get this hand HU if at all possible, and try to win the pot. If there was only one other opponent, I could see calling more, but with 2 people left to act, I really don't want to let them both get such good odds to call a bet, even on such a raggedy board. Also, this board makes it easier to lay down a hand when we get 3 bet on the flop, and whiff the turn.

Also, the reason I said a check-raise was even better now than when I though the flop was A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is because obviously the play there would've been to bet out, and hope to trap callers when the pfr hopefully raises.
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