Isolating @ the bubble

[bmxreed36]

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It'd be terrible if he called with Q9. 88 doesn't fare that well against four overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]you're over 50% to double through to ~4500. even if shortie survives you have command.

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Not if the button calls, then you're more like 35% to double through.

If the button calls you with overcards it's very very bad for you. You're so unbelievably wrong on this point it's not even funny.

The only reason I can think to push here is if the button will interpret that as AA/KK and lay down anything he has. But then that makes UTG's equity shoot through the roof if he has two overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]the short stacks cards don't matter. if the button willingly puts in money as a dog, that is good for you.

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I know this is simplifying things, but if you use SNG Power Tools, put yourself as pushing in the SB with 88 and the BB's calling range at exactly Q9o, it's always gonna be a +EV push. The interesting thing is that the EV/no call is always greater than EV/call even if you mess around with the stack sizes a little and size of the blinds meaning that although it's not bad if he calls, it's actually a little better if he doesn't.

[Simplistic]

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It'd be terrible if he called with Q9. 88 doesn't fare that well against four overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]you're over 50% to double through to ~4500. even if shortie survives you have command.

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Not if the button calls, then you're more like 35% to double through.

If the button calls you with overcards it's very very bad for you. You're so unbelievably wrong on this point it's not even funny.

The only reason I can think to push here is if the button will interpret that as AA/KK and lay down anything he has. But then that makes UTG's equity shoot through the roof if he has two overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]the short stacks cards don't matter. if the button willingly puts in money as a dog, that is good for you.

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I know this is simplifying things, but if you use SNG Power Tools, put yourself as pushing in the SB with 88 and the BB's calling range at exactly Q9o, it's always gonna be a +EV push. The interesting thing is that the EV/no call is always greater than EV/call even if you mess around with the stack sizes a little and size of the blinds meaning that although it's not bad if he calls, it's actually a little better if he doesn't.

[/ QUOTE ]a little better if button doesn't call? or if hero doesn't call?

and this is my way of playing things, you STTers obviously have a different way [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] i can agree to disagree and continue pushing my 88

[pergesu]

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i can agree to disagree and continue pushing my 88

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Not profitably those times Button shows his Q9s and says he's calling any push

[Simplistic]

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i can agree to disagree and continue pushing my 88

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Not profitably those times Button shows his Q9s and says he's calling any push

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how is that not profitable?

[bmxreed36]

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i can agree to disagree and continue pushing my 88

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Not profitably those times Button shows his Q9s and says he's calling any push

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how is that not profitable?

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Maybe you're both right? Villian calling IS profitable, but villian folding is even more profitable [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Jason Strasser]

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I'd just call for several reasons:


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Ok...

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(1) You aren't definitely ITM just yet. I'd like to lock up my final three spot.

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This is not a reason to call and not raise.

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(2) How much equity in the pot are you actually protecting here? I doubt you grab more than about 35% equity in the pot by knocking out button and BB here. About 350 chips, which doesn't seem worth the risk of button or BB waking up with a monster and nailing you.

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In my experience here the Button has a hand here that can call this raise like 0-1% of the time. I hardly ever see this type of call-call with stack sizes that look like this. If you are playing some .01 cent sng and people really call-call with Q9 here.... Then I don't know what to say. But, I think for the most part the thing worrying about is the chance the BB wakes up with a hand... That's going to burn you way more than the button going call-call here. Generally people give respect to people sticking their chips in a dry side pot.

But, the thing I really wanted to point out is that in my opinion the 350 or so chips you gain in equity is way worth it when you weigh it against the risks. It will take some sort of perfect storm here for you to get burned and I think its much more +EV to play the hand like the hero has.

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(3) You're quite often going to flop a set or overpair.

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No, you're not. And, when you do, you can still lose. I mean... while we are on the topic of perfect storms...

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(4) Like Tigerite said, you want zero chance of the button calling with some awful hand like K9 or even AJ. A three-way like UTG - K9, you - 88, button - AJ is a horrible situation.

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Again, this is the perfect storm. And, even with the perfect storm, you are still the favorite in the three-way pot and aren't at all in a 'terrible' situation. Plus, when you figure you find yourself here less than 5% of the time (closer to 1% IMO) its almost not worrying about at all.

Anyway. Your points seem very poorly argued and I think that raising is the play here.

-Jason

[ChrisV]

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(1) You aren't definitely ITM just yet. I'd like to lock up my final three spot.

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This is not a reason to call and not raise.

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Eh? How do you figure?

I think I know what your arguments are, but I'd rather you elaborate before I reply to them.

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(3) You're quite often going to flop a set or overpair.

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No, you're not. And, when you do, you can still lose. I mean... while we are on the topic of perfect storms...

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Perhaps "often" wasn't the right word. I meant "often enough so that it's a consideration". I don't see how the possibility of losing is relevant. Ignoring the overpair question for a second, if your opponent makes such a strong hand that a set of eights is no good, the chance of UTG defeating him is next to nothing. One of the major problems I have with stacking off preflop is the possibility of the button calling you with something like AJ or 99 and beating you but losing to UTG.

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In my experience here the Button has a hand here that can call this raise like 0-1% of the time. I hardly ever see this type of call-call with stack sizes that look like this. If you are playing some .01 cent sng and people really call-call with Q9 here.... Then I don't know what to say. But, I think for the most part the thing worrying about is the chance the BB wakes up with a hand... That's going to burn you way more than the button going call-call here. Generally people give respect to people sticking their chips in a dry side pot... It will take some sort of perfect storm here for you to get burned and I think its much more +EV to play the hand like the hero has.

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By "perfect storm" you mean button calling, since it's extremely unlikely that he's calling with a hand you want him to call with.

Him calling with AA or KK is bad, but at least he'll probably beat UTG. The real disaster is him calling with AJ or 99 or something (and don't tell me you can't imagine this happening).

Against a tight button, go ahead and shove. Usually I'm 8-tabling and not paying a hell of a lot of attention to the other players. I'm not willing to bet my tourney that the button understands that my hand is usually very good here. Not for 350 chips with the added drawback of increasing shorty's survival chances.

[Jason Strasser]

ChrisV,

I actually want to post more but am busy with school work for the second. The thing is I think you seem to concerned with finishing ITM and that even if, god forbid, you make a big pot here once in a while you are still going to be a favorite and the chips you win put you in a position to get first more often.

For every time button calls with 99+ (which most are going to isolate with), he'll call with 55.

Also, why are you so concerned with eliminating the small stack? If he's around you'll be able to steal the guy to your left's BB liberally and apply pressure on the other big stack.

Every one of your arguments for calling seem to have counterarguments and in the end you are just passing on those 350 chips you alluded to over the long run.

-Jason