Folding AKs pre-flop

[KenProspero]

I think this is right, but would love comments.

Three left -- Blinds are 150/300 ante 50.

Hero +/- 2300
SB 650
BB +/- 12000

Hero (with the button) dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero raises 300 (to put SB all in if he calls)
SB folds
BB raises 1500 (to 2100)

Hero folds.

The question -- given relative chip stack, is the fold correct. My thought at the time, was that given my stack size, even doubling up doesn't give me enough of a chance at first to compensate for the possibility of finishing third rather than second.

Is my logic correct?

[rbear]

I'm going for first here... i call

[Shilly]

I would push preflop to avoid something like this happening, and I might be wrong, but I still think that I'm pushing against his raise preflop.

[splashpot]

I probably would have pushed preflop. But given your situation, I'm pretty sure this is a fold since the SB has less than 2 BB after folding.

[jeffraider]

1. Push preflop for christ!
2. I hate the fold. The difference between second and third prizes is small and doubling through gets you sitting at around 4500 chips and will drop the chip leader down to 10000ish, giving you a much better shot at first. I'd get it all in here every time, but I'd much prefer to have the folding equity to go along with my pot equity.

[rbear]

meant push... as for SB busting soon, that's exactly the reason why i take possible coinflip... possibly dominating.. I think this is a clear example of 1st or 3rd.. which is more valuable to me than 2nd

[splashpot]

It's not just 1st or 3rd. Even if you do double up, you're still out stacked 2-1. Lets say you make it HU with a 2-1 disadvantage. You'll get first 1/3rd of the time and second 2/3rds of the time.

50*1/3 = 16.66
30*2/3 = 20

So $36.66 equity assuming you double up and shortie busts. So your actual equity is lower than that since you'll lose this all in a good chunk of the time. I'd rather take the very likely guaranteed $30 with a distant shot at $50.

[lastchance]

This fold is terrible. There is very little difference between 2nd and 3rd place in terms of payout, as the difference between first and second is 2 times greater.

Oh, and push preflop.

[splashpot]

I really disagree with all you guys here. Put the villian on a range. Run it through PokerStove. Get your equity for if you win or lose the all-in. Then determine the equity you'd have heads up. I thought this is a clear fold.

BTW, I think a reasonable range is 99+ AT+ KJ+. With this range, you're 62% to win.

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
I really disagree with all you guys here. Put the villian on a range. Run it through PokerStove. Get your equity for if you win or lose the all-in. Then determine the equity you'd have heads up. I thought this is a clear fold.

BTW, I think a reasonable range is 99+ AT+ KJ+. With this range, you're 62% to win.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, maybe you're right. I don't really care, as I push preflop, which allows me to stop being restolen from, and also makes my decision easy.

Really, just push it.