Deep $100 max hand

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If he's bluffing, what's the point of raising?

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Because it's possible he calls with a worse hand. There is always that possibility, I just don't think it's likely he has anything to call with. The way the hand played I don't think he calls anything but I also don't like showing how I play my hands either.

[dtbog]

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Oh dear. If he's bluffing, whats the point in NOT raising.

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This is fundamentally wrong.


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Raising here is a virtual "can't lose" move...you have to raise. Cold-calling is useless here.

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I maintain that if you raise, you will only get called by a straight flush.

Note that I am not saying that I think or "know" that the villain has a straight flush. I expect that Hero will win this hand.

However, Hero has the deck crippled, and I really don't think anyone's calling in this spot without the goods.

With my assumption that no other hand calls, Hero is basically sticking out $x expecting either to lose (-$EV) or get a fold ($0EV, since he's obviously not folding out a better hand)

[dtbog]

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If he's bluffing, what's the point of raising?

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Because it's possible he calls with a worse hand.

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It is possible, but it seems very unlikely.

If the villain is a fish and doesn't try to put his opponents on hands, then all of my advice in this thread is bad, and Hero should raise.

However, if villain is a thinking player, he simply cannot call a reraise on the river with a flush lower than J high. As I said, this makes the raise -EV.

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OP says that no one's been looking this guy up with his overbets. Hero decides to raise.

If this doesn't look like a big flush, I don't know what does.

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I'm just not giving the guy credit for a SF after the hand plays itself.

[dtbog]

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I'm just not giving the guy credit for a SF after the hand plays itself.

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I didn't say that the guy does have a straight flush, I said that the unlikely time that the guy does have a straight flush is the only time he doesn't fold to the raise.

Silly example:

You have KK.

Board = A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Your opponent bets. You turn your cards face up and raise.

What calls?

Obviously he doesn't have a royal flush very often, but your opponent folds the 2^n times that he doesn't have it and stacks you the one time he does.

-EV raise.

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However, if villain is a thinking player, he simply cannot call a reraise on the river with a flush lower than J high. As I said, this makes the raise -EV.

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I can envision any flush calling a raise here. Its possible. It may not happen all the time, but it can and will happen. In addition, raising could make him fold and second-guess his play.

J7h is the only hand you're beaten to...villain raised in EP, so how can you give him any credit for this hand?

I maintain here, correct play is to min-raise.

If we're talkin about pushing, then I agree with you...pushing is basically -EV or even. But if its a min-raise, I believe firmly that it is +EV.

[arod15]

I cant think of one reason why you shouldnt push all in. Do it. If he has J7 than thats bad luck but if your really afraid of that this isnt the game for you.

[Rockatansky]

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or has the straight himself and doesn't see the flush out there, so I push.

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You don't think he's going to look at the board before he calls a push on the river?

I think Hero has the deck crippled against all but the hand that beats him.

If OP said the villain was a bad player, this would be a different story -- but he said villain was tricky.

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Given Wayfare's read, it seems to me the overwhelming likelihood is that Villain puts Wayfare on a one-pair type hand and decides to bluff at a scary board.

While I agree that the likelihood that Villain holds a straight and is basically ignoring the three-flush board is a remote one, it seems, at least to me, to be the next most likely holding for Villain here. Given that Villain 1) raised UTG, and 2) never bet in this hand until the river, I find it hard to put him on J-8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I just think that the times that Villain makes a somewhat donkish call on the river (and the resulting huge pot that Wayfare drags) with a baby flush or a straight outweighs the minute chance that he actually has the straight flush.

Plus, Villain may be tricky, but I also think he'd bet out here with the straight flush, because 1) given Villain's image, he will get looked up by non-flush non-straight hands; and 2) it gives anyone holding a flush an opportunity to raise Villain's river bet, getting more money into the pot.

[dtbog]

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I cant think of one reason why you shouldnt push all in. Do it. If he has J7 than thats bad luck but if your really afraid of that this isnt the game for you.

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My reason is simply that no other hand calls the push.

disagree if you want... but I'm not flat calling because i'm afraid of the straight flush, I'm flat calling because I think it's the only hand that would call a raise.

[swolfe]

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all in

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yep. i don't expect a call very often, and maybe once in a very long while you'll get called by J8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], but a lot of times you'll get callled by a set or straight that doesn't believe you.