When the turn card doesn't change anything heads up

[cartman]

I open-raise from any non-blind position and get called only by the big blind who will defend with virtually any two and doesn't like to fold postflop.

I have a hand with very little showdown value, like Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. The flop is all low, 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for instance. He checks, I autobet, he calls. The turn card is 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

In a situation like this the turn card has likely done very little to change my opponent's opinion of his hand for the worse, hasn't it? Basically whatever reason he found to justify the flop call can still be used to justify a turn call, right?

Same thing if the turn was 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], right?

Should I just be checking the turn in spots like this, or do you guys think that I have some folding equity?

One last question. What if the turn is 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? Now do I have some folding equity or is this even worse?

Thanks,
Cartman

[aslowjoe]

[ QUOTE ]
virtually any two and doesn't like to fold postflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well he could be peeling with a wide variety of cards here. At least 30% of the time you are still in front. Coupled with a folding equity of at least (insert any number greater then zero) you are getting 3.5-1 on your bet.

[wowacedude]

Good question, this is something i have thought about.
I also have another question.
What if we hold something with showdown value, lets say a medium A-hi. I check behind here sometimes because of the reasons you speak about. Now this opponent often leads the river.
How do you react if the river brings a K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], what if it brings 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

Thanks,
Per

[aslowjoe]

[ QUOTE ]
Now this opponent often leads the river

[/ QUOTE ]

Another reason to bet the turn.

Think of the bet in a vacum. I am getting 3.5-1 for the chance he will either fold or I am ahead or I will improve on the river.

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]

What if we hold something with showdown value, lets say a medium A-hi.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting the turn and checking behind on the river unimproved should be your standard line with Ace high. Unlike my example, you are ahead of every unpaired hand. Against an extremely aggressive opponent who loves to checkraise the turn with a wide variety of better and worse hands than ours and will routinely bet the river if we check the turn, checking behind on the turn and usually calling a river bet may be a good idea.

Cartman

[stigmata]

I generally keep firing in situations like this. However, it is opponents specific.

Against a known flop peeler, it is an easy bet. If they call the turn, you know you are beaten. If they fold, you may have just folded better overcards than your own, which is allways nice [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Against aggressive players, we would have expected a flop check-raise if they had a piece. So a bet again looks good -- they are probably peeling with a weak draw or weak overcards, or are trapping. Again this situation looks like a turn bet is also profitable, and certainly the easiest way to play the hand.

The least clear cut situation is postflop tight-passive players who simply call down with any piece and let you hang yourself. In this situation, I think checking the flop and folding to a river bet (which is unlikely to be a bluff) is sometimes a good plan. Things like whether to fire at a good bluff card (A/K) etc on the turn or river are really context dependent and I really can't say.

In general, with a low, drawless flop, many players will simply peel. Your fold equity goes way up on the turn, so I think as a general rule betting here is a good idea.

[cartman]

How does the scenario change if it all for you guys when a 3rd heart hits the turn?

Does it make you more or less inclined to fire again?

Thanks,
Cartman

[Jeff W]

I definitely check these turns a lot unless I have reason to believe my opponent will fold.

Treat it like a semi-bluff and calculate the break-even percent to see if betting is good or bad. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Btw, me and Justin A worked on the turn semi-bluff raise problem and I think both of our methods are wrong.

[redbeard]

hey jeff --
in this situation you have advocated a check behind on the turn and i assume you are folding to a river bet. while i think this to be the correct play, if you start to do this too frequently when you are running cold don't you wind up having opponents start to run over you. i guess what i'm asking is are you willing to make this play a couple of times and then you predetermine the next time that you either must fire again or call the river bet if you check behind.

[beachbum]

Knowing your opponent's folding equity here is huge. I think the biggest factor in this situation is your table image. Have you had similar situations previously at this table where you bet every street, he c/c'd every street, only for you to showdown an overpair or a set and he's crushed. Sometimes it only takes a couple hands like this for him to give up on the turn next time. Focus on the metagame/table image issues to figure out whether he's scared of your turn bet.

As a default against an opponent who you mentioned "doesn't like to fold postflop" I check behind this turn in this situation. No reason to get a big bet in the pot drawing thin. Take the 'free card'.