4HANDED. PARTY20. 57TP . - Page 2

flawless_victory · #11 10-10-2005, 06:00 PM

he aint gettin 5, but i might if the river comes 9 and this idiot checkcalls.
muchmuch more important is metagame. punish them for getting out of line against you... i dont want ppl putting me to the test all the time... i also am a serial turn raiser in SH games... so when i do have "it" im looking to inflict maximum pain.

Jeff W · #12 10-10-2005, 06:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
he aint gettin 5, but i might if the river comes 9 and this idiot checkcalls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if he doesn't get 5, you open yourself up to some river bluffs(ex: he has KQ and decides to bluff the river A).

wheelz · #13 10-10-2005, 06:05 PM

so you're saying if he bets the river and you don't improve you're folding??

flawless_victory · #14 10-10-2005, 06:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
so you're saying if he bets the river and you don't improve you're folding??

[/ QUOTE ]depends on timing/card... i dont decide this stuff in advance, generally.

baronzeus · #15 10-10-2005, 06:10 PM

i think you'll see an overpair at least 75% of the time after he 3bets it but I think a cap is standard.

Subfallen · #16 10-10-2005, 06:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i think you'll see an overpair at least 75% of the time after he 3bets it but I think a cap is standard.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes absolutely no sense. You think that 75% of the time you're drawing to 2 outs yet it's standard to put in 2 more BB's? The pot is 9BB, and the 25% of the time he doesn't have an overpair he likely has 10 outs. So the EV of capping, assuming we can magically fold to the river bet when he has an overpair or when he improves, is:

(.75)((.077)(11BB) + (.923)(-2BB)) + (.25)((.227)(-2BB) + (.772)(10BB)) = +1.07BB

Compare to calling, given the same assumption of perfect river play:

(.75)((.077)(10BB) + (.923)(-1BB)) + (.25)((.227)(-1BB) + (.772)(9BB)) = +1.53BB

Equals a .46BB mistake. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

IMO this hand's correctness is a function of flawless's table image.

baronzeus · #17 10-10-2005, 06:43 PM

you're missing the fact that he rarely bets an overpair on the river after you cap the turn

(yes i take the free showdown when he checks to me)

Subfallen · #18 10-10-2005, 06:48 PM

That does not change my EV calculation because I assumed you put in no more bets on the river when behind.

But, intuitively, don't you see putting in extra bets while 75% likely to be a 2-out dog must be wrong?

baronzeus · #19 10-10-2005, 06:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That does not change my EV calculation because I assumed you put in no more bets on the river when behind.

But, intuitively, don't you see putting in extra bets while 75% likely to be a 2-out dog must be wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, i do. but we are seeing a showdown. and id rather put in bets on the turn when i have at least 2 outs than on the river when i am drawing dead.

so the question is, is that last bet coming in on the turn or the river? i think putting it in on the turn is far better, especially because we can bet the river if we spike a 5

Also your calculations are weird because we are putting in 2bets regardless of whether we cap or call (we are calling the river because he is betting the river)

Subfallen · #20 10-10-2005, 06:57 PM

I see your perspective better now, but I still disagree because I think we can correctly fold on some river cards such as A's and 3's. In fact I think it's very unlikely he bluffs a worse hand unimproved on the river, so we should be seeing a lot of free showdowns against his AK/AQ whatever when he has it. No need to put in the 4th bet on the turn.