"Yuck" (aka a badly played straight flush?)

[ QUOTE ]
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s 3c 6c 5d - 8d 7d 9d - ad kd 5c / ts 2c 9h 4d 6s
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6c 3c 5d 131742 26.35 368133 73.63 125 0.03 0.264
9d 8d 7d 214579 42.92 285304 57.06 117 0.02 0.429 <<<
5c Ad Kd 153534 30.71 346418 69.28 48 0.01 0.307

since your ev > 33.3% no problems betting/raising here.

4th street (4.5sb)
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s 3c 6c 5d tc - 8d 7d 9d 8s - ad kd 5c 6h / ts 2c 9h 4d 6s
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc 6c 3c 5d 131905 26.38 368028 73.61 67 0.01 0.264
8s 9d 8d 7d 276965 55.39 223020 44.60 15 0.00 0.554 <<<
5c Ad Kd 6h 91049 18.21 408871 81.77 80 0.02 0.182

still no problem betting/raising

5th street (3.25bb)
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s 3c 6c 5d tc th - 8d 7d 9d 8s 6d / ts 2c 9h 4d 6s ad kd 5c 6h
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc 6c 3c 5d Th 212807 42.56 287193 57.44 0 0.00 0.426
8s 9d 8d 7d 6d 287193 57.44 212807 42.56 0 0.00 0.574 <<<

still ahead

6th street (5.25bb)
pokenum -7s 3c 6c 5d tc th 2d - 8d 7d 9d 8s 6d 4h / ts 2c 9h 4d 6s ad kd 5c 6h
7-card Stud Hi: 930 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc 6c 3c 5d 2d Th 554 59.57 376 40.43 0 0.00 0.596
8s 9d 8d 7d 6d 4h 376 40.43 554 59.57 0 0.00 0.404

prebet equity: .404*5.25=2.1BB
after 1 bet: .404*7.25= 2.929BB .829 increment / bet

check / call time? your equity decreases with each bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

blah blah blah ...

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


prebet equity: .404*5.25=2.1BB
after 1 bet: .404*7.25= 2.929BB .829 increment / bet

check / call time? your equity decreases with each bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cheers for the stats Garlington, just a Q.

You say the equity decreases with each bet, but that's only on the river right? It doesn't % increase each street slightly? (sorry - bad with numbers)

Cheers,
SDM

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that last bit had me confused too. I don’t think I’ve ever seen the term “prebet equity”.

I think I understand what he means though. It’s quite simple:
On every street until 6th you have an equity edge. On 4th street, you have an equity edge because you have more than 33% equity with two opponents; on 5th, you have an equity edge because you have more than 50% equity with one opponent. On 6th street though, you have LESS than 50% equity. So you lose money with every bet you put in. That doesn’t mean that you’re pot equity somehow mysteriously is decreased. Pot equity has nothing to do with bets, only with your cards.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s 3c 6c 5d - 8d 7d 9d - ad kd 5c / ts 2c 9h 4d 6s
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6c 3c 5d 131742 26.35 368133 73.63 125 0.03 0.264
9d 8d 7d 214579 42.92 285304 57.06 117 0.02 0.429 <<<
5c Ad Kd 153534 30.71 346418 69.28 48 0.01 0.307

since your ev > 33.3% no problems betting/raising here.

4th street (4.5sb)
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s 3c 6c 5d tc - 8d 7d 9d 8s - ad kd 5c 6h / ts 2c 9h 4d 6s
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc 6c 3c 5d 131905 26.38 368028 73.61 67 0.01 0.264
8s 9d 8d 7d 276965 55.39 223020 44.60 15 0.00 0.554 <<<
5c Ad Kd 6h 91049 18.21 408871 81.77 80 0.02 0.182

still no problem betting/raising

5th street (3.25bb)
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s 3c 6c 5d tc th - 8d 7d 9d 8s 6d / ts 2c 9h 4d 6s ad kd 5c 6h
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc 6c 3c 5d Th 212807 42.56 287193 57.44 0 0.00 0.426
8s 9d 8d 7d 6d 287193 57.44 212807 42.56 0 0.00 0.574 <<<

still ahead

6th street (5.25bb)
pokenum -7s 3c 6c 5d tc th 2d - 8d 7d 9d 8s 6d 4h / ts 2c 9h 4d 6s ad kd 5c 6h
7-card Stud Hi: 930 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc 6c 3c 5d 2d Th 554 59.57 376 40.43 0 0.00 0.596
8s 9d 8d 7d 6d 4h 376 40.43 554 59.57 0 0.00 0.404

prebet equity: .404*5.25=2.1BB
after 1 bet: .404*7.25= 2.929BB .829 increment / bet

check / call time? your equity decreases with each bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

blah blah blah ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice post. I hope it’s your last one.

[sexdrugsmoney]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />


prebet equity: .404*5.25=2.1BB
after 1 bet: .404*7.25= 2.929BB .829 increment / bet

check / call time? your equity decreases with each bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cheers for the stats Garlington, just a Q.

You say the equity decreases with each bet, but that's only on the river right? It doesn't % increase each street slightly? (sorry - bad with numbers)

Cheers,
SDM

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that last bit had me confused too. I don’t think I’ve ever seen the term “prebet equity”.

I think I understand what he means though. It’s quite simple:
On every street until 6th you have an equity edge. On 4th street, you have an equity edge because you have more than 33% equity with two opponents; on 5th, you have an equity edge because you have more than 50% equity with one opponent. On 6th street though, you have LESS than 50% equity. So you lose money with every bet you put in. That doesn’t mean that you’re pot equity somehow mysteriously is decreased. Pot equity has nothing to do with bets, only with your cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cheers Roland, but I'm still confused.

Obviously a straight flush is a monster and if you have negative pot equity on the river with a straight flush, wouldn't it stand to reason that with every hand on the river you have negative pot equity?

Cheers,
SDM

[greenage]

Roland,

I'm not sure I understand the bolded sentence.

[ QUOTE ]
On 6th street though, you have LESS than 50% equity. So you lose money with every bet you put in. That doesn’t mean that you’re pot equity somehow mysteriously is decreased. Pot equity has nothing to do with bets, only with your cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fifth street pot = $13.

Hero: EV = 0.574, pot equity = $7.46

Sixth street pot = $21.

Hero: EV = 0.404, pot equity = $8.48

So, even though Hero’s EV has decreased, his pot equity has actually increased. Is this what you meant?

[RayGarlington]

Let me clarify what I'm saying about sixth street:

6th street (5.25bb) ++++++
pokenum -7s 3c 6c 5d tc th 2d - 8d 7d 9d 8s 6d 4h / ts 2c 9h 4d 6s ad kd 5c 6h
7-card Stud Hi: 930 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc 6c 3c 5d 2d Th 554 59.57 376 40.43 0 0.00 0.596
8s 9d 8d 7d 6d 4h 376 40.43 554 59.57 0 0.00 0.404 &lt;&lt;&lt;

Before anyone puts in a bet on 6th street, your equity is .404*5.25=2.1BB

after you and your opponent put in 1 bet your equity is .404*7.25= 2.929BB

your starting equity for this round was 2.1 BB and you just added one bet which totals 3.1BB; however, your pot equity is only 2.929BB. So, you put in a BB but your equity only went up .829BB.

In general, (assuming nobody folds) the relationship for your change in equity per bet is:
let p = # players in the betting round
let e = your equity (per the sim)

equity change per bet = p - 1/e

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
Roland,

I'm not sure I understand the bolded sentence.

[ QUOTE ]
On 6th street though, you have LESS than 50% equity. So you lose money with every bet you put in. That doesn’t mean that you’re pot equity somehow mysteriously is decreased. Pot equity has nothing to do with bets, only with your cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fifth street pot = $13.

Hero: EV = 0.574, pot equity = $7.46

Sixth street pot = $21.

Hero: EV = 0.404, pot equity = $8.48

So, even though Hero’s EV has decreased, his pot equity has actually increased. Is this what you meant?

[/ QUOTE ]


I didn’t mean that it hasn’t decreased between 5th and 6th street. It obviously has.
I don’t know if I understand Ray correctly, but he seems to be saying that there SDMs pot equity would decrease if he bet 6th. That isn’t the case though; he does, however, lose $$$ if he bets.
The reason this is so confusing - I think - is that when I talk of pot equity, I’m thinking about percentages but Ray is thinking of $$$. Although it really doesn’t matter - it’s really the same, % or $, who cares, it can be misleading.
I’m pretty tired though, so maybe I’m missing something.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously a straight flush is a monster and if you have negative pot equity on the river with a straight flush, wouldn't it stand to reason that with every hand on the river you have negative pot equity?


[/ QUOTE ]

a) There is no such thing as negative pot equity.
b) On the river, you either have 100% or 0% pot equity.

I’m tired, so hopefully someone else can explain pot equity to you. If not, I will later.

[ QUOTE ]
Nice post. I hope it’s your last one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not trying to be rude, just trying to express my feelings toward that kind of approach. Maybe I'm just old school, but it's my opinion that that mumbo jumbo ain't gonna do you much good in most situations. If I knew what my % EV and "prebet equiity" was for every single situation I ever played in, that would be a great thing, but there are so many unique situations (especially in games like stud) that statistics are often useless for a given situation. The human mind simply can't maintain all of that information and make use of it in every situation. If it were two computers playing eachother, that would be a different story. I like to use my skills as a human being to get the best edge. I'm all about pot odds, but you've gotta draw the line somwhere. There comes a point where good old fashioned intuition is far better than all those numbers.

Just a difference in philosophy, sir. I apologize if I offended.

[bygmesterf]

[ QUOTE ]
Just a difference in philosophy, sir. I apologize if I offended.

[/ QUOTE ]

Acutlly I agree with this, I'm not interested inpussing situations where I have to use Poker Probe to know if I did right.

Personally I think that even for this pretty SF draw too many cards are dead, so I would play it as cheaply as possible, and would probably pass it in a tight game like Party 5/10+