Did I just miss a lot of value here?

[Kirkrrr]

Stars 10+R, 45K guaranteed. Villain is a total donk. When I first saw the flop I said "I'm going broke with this hand." When he insta-called my raise on the turn I changed my mind.
The table has been very aggressive, btw, and playing pretty fast for the most part. My image is aggressive and good as I haven't lost a single showdown yet since I sat down at the table.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) converter

MP3 (t9700)
CO (t8140)
Hero (t10895)
SB (t12785)
BB (t11295)
UTG (t7185)
UTG+1 (t8200)
MP1 (Villain) (t7575)
MP2 (t4775)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">(Villain) raises to t300</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls t300, Hero calls t300, SB calls t225, BB calls t150.

Flop: (t1500) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Villain bets t600</font>, CO folds, Hero calls t600, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: (t2700) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Villain bets t600</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t2000</font>, Villain calls t1400.

River: (t6700) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Villain checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: t6700

Did I screw it up by not betting the river?

Thanks,
Kirk

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
Did I screw it up by not betting the river?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

Why would he call the turn raise and then check the river with a hand that beats yours? You'll get a call from AA/KK/Qx/JJ about a zillion times more than you'll get cr'ed by a straight, boat or bigger trips.

Later,
Che

[Kirkrrr]

Yeah, I knew it as soon as I checked behind. Thanks, Che.

Kirk

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is a total donk.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When I first saw the flop I said "I'm going broke with this hand." When he insta-called my raise on the turn I changed my mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you know what you did wrong, but this is a great illustration of why you should trust your reads in a situation. You think villain is a *total* donk-- so he sure as hell will be willing to call your turn raise with less than trip 9s, right? So why look for a monster in the closet that isn't there?

[Che]

Another thing I forgot to mention the first time is that the stack sizes in this hand should relieve you of any shred of fear you might have about betting the river.

Your stack is roughly equal to the size of the pot so you cannot be bluffed out of the hand (if you bet less than all-in, you will always call the cr) and you cannot take a big hit (like you could if you were cr'ed betting at a 3K pot with 40K behind).

Later,
Che

A question I like to ask myself in these spots is whether I would bluff here. I'm assuming you don't think it's very likely he's got a hand that beats you, but you aren't sure whether he'll call the river if he doesn't. Well, if you wouldn't bluff him, then you must think he's going to call the river with a lot less than trips, so a value bet is in order.

Bad calls is what makes donks so much fun to play with. We know not to get fancy and try to move them off of hands, but if we don't value bet to take advantage of their looseness, then the donks win!

[ QUOTE ]
Did I screw it up by not betting the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Geez, am I the only one to say probably not, that you probably made the right play?

In reality it depends.

What kind of read did you have on your opponent? What kind of hand did you put him on? Is that hand good enough for him to call?

What kinds of hands could you get really hurt with? What are the chances that your opponent has one of those hands?

How smart is your opponent? You say he is a "total donk" but even a completely fool can put you on a 9 here.

It all goes back to Sklansky and page 188-89 of ToP. You bet for value on the end, when you are sure to win the bet (and here's the key part) "when you are called."

So let's say it's safe to assume that your opponent is "total donk" but ably capable of putting you on a 9. In this case, if you are sure that your opponent thinks you have a 9, then your check is absolutely the right play.

More than likely, your opponent being who you think he is, if he thinks he can beat 999, he is going to bet out for value on his own right. If he is sure that he can't beat 999, then he is almost surely going to check and fold. In this situation, your bet has absolutely no value.

The only way you can bet for value, is if your opponent has a hand that he isn't sure is the best, and has a reasonable probability of winning if he makes the call.

What are the hands that can really hurt you? QQ, Q9, TT, 33 and KJ. What are the chances that 1) your opponent has one of those and 2) is tricky enough to play the hand the way he did? If he is not tricky and his play is not sophisticated, then he probably has none of those holdings.

So what are the hands that he might be likely to call with? AA, KK and AQ and that's probably about it. Can't really see him calling with AK, AJ, AT or JJ, or for sure anything less than that. So what are the chances that he has one of the calling hands?

Here's another question that you have to consider. What are you going to do if the opponent fires back all-in on you? He is a "total donk" as you say, but even these players are occasionally capable of a check-raise or a bluff. So what would you do? If you can't immediately say call or reraise, then your check was almost surely the proper play.

So in summary, the decision to bet for value on the river, has a heckuva lot more to consider than just whether or not you have the best hand.

[Kirkrrr]

The thing about total donks is that they don't just call a lot of things they shouldn't, they also check a lot of things they shouldn't be checking... like boats and quads on dangerous boards, thinking how cool they would look if only they were on TV. So in a way - and there's a possibility I might have this backwards - I'm more likely to make a value bet here against a good player, but I'm more cautious with bad players that have a tendency to get tricky in horrible spots, and unstack unwitting "good" players.

There have been several posts on this subject here in the past just recently.

Kirk

[Kirkrrr]

He's calling a moderate bet with any Queen - AQ, KQ, QJ, and AA/KK. Since there was a pre-flop raise, AQ and KQ are very, very likely here.

Kirk

[ QUOTE ]
The thing about total donks is that they don't just call a lot of things they shouldn't, they also check a lot of things they shouldn't be checking... like boats and quads on dangerous boards, thinking how cool they would look if only they were on TV.


[/ QUOTE ]

That really hasn't been my experience. I feel like inducing a bluff requires thinking at a deeper level than Joe Schmoe Poker. Absent a read to the contrary, I assume donks don't check monsters on the river. In Donk Psychology, the thinking is, "I have a big hand, I deserve to win a big pot, time for a big bet!". On the flop and turn, they are capable of slow-playing (often when they shouldn't), but not because they are inducing a bluff- they are giving you a chance to catch up so you'll call a bigger bet later. They do not want to risk missing out on the big bet they 'deserve' if you check behind, and will bet the river.

On a related note, I also don't believe that donks nut peddle. VERY occasionally, you'll see the min bet with a monster, because the Donk just can't stand to see his Baby get checked, but much more often is the check-check-pot size (or more) bet on river. Why? Because a big hand deserves a big pot, and they just can't stand to make a smaller bet, even if it's more likely to get called.

This is all dependent on the validity of your read of Villain as a donk, of course. And no doubt there are exceptions and yada yada yada, but until Villain tells me otherwise, and especially if I haven't seen anything to suggest he's a thinking player, I assume he doesn't check monsters on the river and value bet accordingly.