Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?

[cartman]

When an overcard hits, yes I think QQ and KK are very similar to JJ because it takes a big card to be an overcard to them. I think the situation would change some when our preflop and flop actions were the same and I held 77 on a 6 high flop and then a 9 hit the turn. I am not as concerned about the overcard on the turn in this example because a 9 is not particularly likely holding for him. In light of this I would usually bet the turn and call down if raised except against passive opponents, against whom I would still bet and fold to a raise.

Cartman

[deception5]

Good points, thanks for the response! Guess it doesn't really matter which of the 3 hands you have, just fewer overcards to worry about with QQ/KK.

[dumb ox]

One problem with using aggression factor to determine our action in this hand is that the turn bluff checkraises often come from people with below average to average aggression. It seems like this sort of turn is going to attract people who are selectively agressive.

Of course, there's probably no better way of doing it than how you just outlined it. I hate turn checkraises!

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
One problem with using aggression factor ...

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree and sense I don't have a very good handle on the interplay between VPIP and AF, I only use it in a very broad sense until I can get a handle on the player through observation. When I was referring to various levels of aggression above I wasn't talking about AF but instead a subjective estimate on my part of how likely the opponent is to raise the turn with a hand worse than mine.

Cartman

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
I have thought quite a bit about this hand and the more I do so the less I like bet fold whether the turn card is an A, a K, or a Q.

[/ QUOTE ]

A K or Q turn is much different from an Ace on the turn... two big reasons are

1. people are more likely to raise an underpair when the board is a K than when it is an Ace and

2. people are more likely to have improved with an Ace on the turn than with a K/Q--A2, A3, A4, A5 and AT are all likely hands, while Ks and Qs with a 2/4 kicker are way less likely

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
A K or Q turn is much different from an Ace on the turn... two big reasons are

1. people are more likely to raise an underpair when the board is a K than when it is an Ace and

2. people are more likely to have improved with an Ace on the turn than with a K/Q--A2, A3, A4, A5 and AT are all likely hands, while Ks and Qs with a 2/4 kicker are way less likely

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Jeff,

Am I correct to gather from this that against an opponent with average or above average aggression that you would typically bet and call down if raised when a K or Q hits but bet-fold when an Ace hits?

If not, what would your typical approach be against these types?

Thanks,
Cartman

[tansoku]

Normally I'd think the bet here is also good because it might get overcards that could river you to fold. But here any overcards just picked up a gutshot.

What about checking with the intent of chk-raising and folding to a 3bet?

Assuming he will 3bet an Ace, almost always, and very rarely bluff 3bet the turn means that he either folds or calls when you are ahead (assumes he would raise the flop with KK/QQ/AA). Costs the same and chk-calling down, and if he checks behind you at least feel good about betting a non-threatening river.

Hate to give a free card to something like KQ, but you do hold 2 of the gutshot outs.

Hmm, against an unknown a turn raise needs to be respected, so bet fold looks like the way to go..

NH.

[cartman]

Would this situation change for you guys if the flop had two flush cards or if the turn put a second flush card on the board. In other words would the increased likelihood of a semibluff turn raise with a flush draw make you more likely to bet and call down rather than bet-fold or check-call?

What would your default line be then for A, K, and Q?

Thanks,
Cartman

[wheelz]

against a total unknown it doesnt matter whether it's a flush card or not, i think i'm going with bet-fold an ace, bet-call down k or q.

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
i think i'm going with bet-fold an ace, bet-call down k or q.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, Wheelz. Is that what you think Jeff W was advocating above also?

Cartman