AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday

[runout_mick]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Mike, calling versus a JJ here is a terrible move. Still very early in the tourney, why would you want to take a coinflip? Theres only five hundred in there as dead money anyways. This is an easy fold, the only hands you'd want to call against are AJ or AQ. Stop thinking of it as a money game, the goal isnt to get in there with some tiny edge.

[/ QUOTE ]yes it is

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you guys say this is a terrible move? I really can't see AA or KK doing this. Anything else, and you're money ahead....

Please elabourate.

[kuro]

These situations give me fits as well. I know that it's probably +ev to call but the edge is so thin that I usually pass on it.

[TomHimself]

i think its good push, my YES IT IS was response saying you shouldnt take small edges and i thnk you should

I can't be the only one who wouldnt take a coinflip for their whole stack very early in a multitable. Every book out there on NL tourneys says to aviod this. Im not a straight-by-the-book player, but this should be pretty sensible advice. I don't think I'm out on a limb here either, as I've made 10 final tables and won 6 tournies.

You bust out so often on the cointosses, when people will hand you chips later on by pulling this move when you have aces or kings (or against this guy, probably queens as well). If you dont trust that your skill can earn you better than a 50/50 chance versus a bad player like this, then you have no business playing in tourneys.

[TomHimself]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't be the only one who wouldnt take a coinflip for their whole stack very early in a multitable. Every book out there on NL tourneys says to aviod this. Im not a straight-by-the-book player, but this should be pretty sensible advice. I don't think I'm out on a limb here either, as I've made 10 final tables and won 6 tournies.

You bust out so often on the cointosses, when people will hand you chips later on by pulling this move when you have aces or kings (or against this guy, probably queens as well). If you dont trust that your skill can earn you better than a 50/50 chance versus a bad player like this, then you have no business playing in tourneys.

[/ QUOTE ] LOL, please dont talk

[AlphaWice]

why? I think he raises a good point.

The edge is so thin, and the blinds are relatively low. Why not wait for a better spot? If he really is a donk, you will be way over 50/50 elsewhere.

[TomHimself]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

595,881,792 games 1.187 secs 502,006,564 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 58.6619 % 53.17% 05.49% { AKs }
Hand 2: 41.3381 % 35.85% 05.49% { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo }

[stevepa]

[ QUOTE ]
why? I think he raises a good point.

The edge is so thin, and the blinds are relatively low. Why not wait for a better spot? If he really is a donk, you will be way over 50/50 elsewhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

He may have a valid point but he came off as a bit of a tool. Basically we should listen to him because he's won x tourneys and gone to y final tables...no one cares.

However, like I said, his point may be valid. But I question whether I will have (better) opportunities to get his stack. It's not like we're heads up, there are other people trying to get it too. If I win this hand, I'm in a dominant position, with over 7k at 25/50 blinds and having everyone at the table easily covered. Losing, in a word, sucks. Conclusion, I don't know what the better play is.

Steve

[runout_mick]

You MUST call when you believe you're the favourite, EVERY time. You are going to take a bad beat every now and again, but by consistently getting your chips in as a favourite you will accumulate enough chips to absorb a percentage of bad beats.

IMO even WITHOUT the dead money this is a push (unless you know villain very well), and factoring the chips already in the pot, this becomes a no-brainer.

Hey, I certainly don't think that Im one of the best players on 2+2, or even one of the better ones. I just meant that I'm not some total newb whose really out of line.

As for Toms post:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

636,977,088 games 1.171 secs 543,959,938 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.4808 % 40.38% 05.10% { 55+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 2: 54.5192 % 49.42% 05.10% { AKs }

To me this is a little more realistic, but that's just quibbling over a small 4% EV difference. The real issue is whether or not it's worth it in a tournament to put your whole stack at risk with only small edges in your favor.

Mike, your line is 100% right in money games, I just feel that in tournies since you only have 1 shot and can't rebuy, protecting your chips becomes more important. For example, if you had the chance to put your money allin as a 51% favorite in the first hand of the tourney, would you take it? I feel that you have more equity waiting for a better spot. Obviously there is a line somewhere, and often somewhere later on in the tourney I will make this call. Usually only when The blinds force me to do so, though. It's tough to win more than 1-2 coinflips in any given tourney.