What's More Important In PT: win % or net won?

banditdad · #1 07-04-2005, 03:28 PM

Based on a sample size of 20K hands at 6 max AP 1/2 I'm trying to determine which is the most important stat? Should I be more concerned with win % of a starting hand or net amount won? Interesting anomaloy: KQs wins 47.54% of the time but I have a net loss of $14.13.

If looking at win % how low a percentage do you use? Do you play hands where you have a win % of 40% or less?

Conversely I have "junk" hands where I have low win% but positive win amounts in dollars.

How do you correlate all this info into a a usable strategy?

bobdibble · #2 07-04-2005, 03:46 PM

Sounds like you need to read or re-read SSHE.

You should care about BB/100 for a hand to see how well you are playing it.

And as for hands that win 40% of the time, those are monsters. If you are going to win 40% of the time, you make money anytime the pot is 3 handed or more.

That being said, your PT database is surely not large enough to determine the equity of a particular hand. So, don't use your own stats for determining equity.

excession · #3 07-04-2005, 06:41 PM

I think once you get 25k+ hands in your DB PT is pretty good for determining YOUR EQ with a particular hand in the environment that you play in - far better than just following book advice IMHO

- it may not tell you exactly how much you ought to win with each hand, but by comparing your performance with one hand to similar hands it's pretty good at telling you where you can improve

RedManPlus · #4 07-04-2005, 10:55 PM

Win% can be very misleading...
For example, you can be winning pots with monsters...
But not getting maximum value because of your betting profile.

All that matters is money won.

For each category of hole cards...
You should be doing 1.0 to 1.5 BB/hour higher...
Than the "average player" EV.

Measure your winnings against...
The Poker Room average EV stats:

Poker Room Historical EV Stats

As for KQs...
The "average player" wins 0.39 BB/hour.

If you are not doing 1.5 BB/hour...
Then you are not playing that hand expertly...
Probably overplaying it.

rm+

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

jackdaniels · #5 07-04-2005, 11:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
As for KQs...
The "average player" wins 0.39 BB/hour.

[/ QUOTE ]

I saw that chart and was wondering why you say that the "average player" wins that amount. And why do you use 1.5BB more than the EV listed there, what is the logic? Also, how many hands do you think it really takes before you can "trust" your numbers are representative?

TIA

banditdad · #6 07-05-2005, 02:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Win% can be very misleading...
For example, you can be winning pots with monsters...
But not getting maximum value because of your betting profile.

All that matters is money won.

For each category of hole cards...
You should be doing 1.0 to 1.5 BB/hour higher...
Than the "average player" EV.

Measure your winnings against...
The Poker Room average EV stats:

Poker Room Historical EV Stats

As for KQs...
The "average player" wins 0.39 BB/hour.

If you are not doing 1.5 BB/hour...
Then you are not playing that hand expertly...
Probably overplaying it.

rm+

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the Poker Room link. I suspect I don't have a large enough DB at this point. There are some oddities that I can only chalk up to small sample size. For example: TT I'm winning at a rate of 4BB/Hand with 105 hands dealt and JJ I'm at 2.34BB/Hand over 86 hands. This could be a case of great flops against bad players.

excession · #7 07-05-2005, 08:13 AM

When I last looked at the PR EV stats they were for all hands (and therefore mostly limit and full ring) across all stakes (and therefore weighted to lower stakes games).
If you could break em down (for example) to all 6-max $200NL hands played that would be different.

I did put the link (and point out this flaw) in my BTP PT articles.

illunious · #8 07-05-2005, 09:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you are not doing 1.5 BB/hour...
Then you are not playing that hand expertly...
Probably overplaying it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you're a smart guy, RedMan, but reading anything into a single (suited) hands EV (or Win%) after 20k hands is absurd.

And PR EV stats are not /hour, but /hand.

jackdaniels · #9 07-05-2005, 09:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you are not doing 1.5 BB/hour...
Then you are not playing that hand expertly...
Probably overplaying it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you're a smart guy, RedMan, but reading anything into a single (suited) hands EV (or Win%) after 20k hands is absurd.

And PR EV stats are not /hour, but /hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was wondering if this was the case. You should average that per hand. But rm+ argues that in addition to the number at PR, an expertly played hand should yield an additional 1.5BB.

Thoughts?

illunious · #10 07-05-2005, 09:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you are not doing 1.5 BB/hour...
Then you are not playing that hand expertly...
Probably overplaying it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you're a smart guy, RedMan, but reading anything into a single (suited) hands EV (or Win%) after 20k hands is absurd.

And PR EV stats are not /hour, but /hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was wondering if this was the case. You should average that per hand. But rm+ argues that in addition to the number at PR, an expertly played hand should yield an additional 1.5BB.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's saying categories/hour, which might be true... obviously an expert isn't going to get +1.2 EV on 23o (which averages like -.16 BB/hand IIRC on the PR page)