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#1
06-29-2005, 11:02 AM
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Poker is a partial information game
I don't miss the lack of action on Pokerstars, but I do miss the clock on occassion. Primary villain in this hand seems very reasonable. The other guy in the hand is unknown. What say you?
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (Full Ring, 7 handed) converter UTG ($192) MP1 ($238.4) MP2 ($263.2) Hero ($295.5) Button ($203.55) SB ($302.25) BB ($127.82) Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, Button calls $8, SB (poster) calls $7, BB calls $6, MP1 calls $6. Flop: ($40) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $30</font>, Button calls $30, SB calls $30, BB folds, MP1 folds. Turn: ($130) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets $150</font> Action's on you. 
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#2
06-29-2005, 11:06 AM
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Re: Poker is a partial information game
Do these people call 3/4 pot bets with AK on the flop?
I probably push but I don't like it. Edit: Actually, only if I'm relatively sure these two aren't idiots and are trying to push me off this pot.
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#4
06-29-2005, 11:31 AM
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Re: Poker is a partial information game
Weird, but I think I've gotta push.
Edit: I just noticed the double-gutbuster on the flop. Now I think it's closer. But I'm still probably pushing. I just can't see folding a set here without deeper stack.
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#6
06-29-2005, 11:45 AM
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Re: Poker is a partial information game
Those in favor of a call or push how do you discount these factors:
1. It is highly unlikely that SB is bluffing here (I would put it at %15 of the time max, reasonable?). So he either has a hand that beats hero, or 66. 2. Button is yet to act and was also likely on a draw, but a bigger set is also not out of the question. 3. Given 1 and 2 there's a good chance that the combination of villians hand's have you drawing dead. Is this really a time to push? 4. Just out of curiosity, if you push, what percent of the time do you think you come away with this pot? 5. What factors favor a push here? -salloch
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#7
06-29-2005, 11:48 AM
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Re: Poker is a partial information game
Crappy spot against an unknown. Its particularly crappy as there is a third person to act after you.
What does "reasonable" mean to you? Would he call a raise with 98s (flopping a double gutter, possibly a flush draw as well) out of the SB in this situation? How do you think he'd play something like AsKs? In any case, his turn bet is almost certainly not a bluff due to the fact that he'd have to push two people out who have both shown interest in the pot so far and it is so large that I think he's protecting against something (probably puts somebody on spades and wants to charge for the draw). A reasonable player could very likely be playing 98s (not spades) exactly like this. He's made his straight but made it on the less desireable end and doesn't want AA/KK/AQ or spades sticking around to outdraw him. If this is the case, I think he's resigned himself to losing his stack to AK if that's what you (as the preflop raiser) have. In the moment, I probably push and lose (or suckout) but I think a fold is better. Hopefully, button will look him up for you and you'll get some information for future hands.
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#9
06-29-2005, 11:55 AM
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Re: Poker is a partial information game
This is exactly how I play the double gutter here. However, he could also have QJs or QTs. Or a very weirdly played flush draw himself, although I would put that at 5% probably. Also bluff at 5% probably. Maybe less.
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