Pot Equity

[Gregg777]

I have read all the threads on 2+2 regarding pot equity, and have read the Sklansky’s section in SSHE, but I still do not have a clear answer. I have posted similar inquiries in both the heads up and beginners sections and not received any replies. So if you could help me out, I would greatly appreciate it.

I understand pot equity is the bet amount equivalent to the percentage of the pot you expect to win. I also understand that if you have a 35% equity and 4 opponents, you have an equity edge and should bet for value. But I play primarily heads up and most hands do not have a 50% equity, so I want to further define exactly how to use pot equity in less than optimal situations.

Assume that on the flop there is already $10 in the pot, and my hand equity is approximately 40%. I am on the button and my opponent checks to me.

Is it a bad strategy to bet 50% the pot ($5), even though my equity is only 40%? If you account for the money already in the pot, after my bet is called, technically my bet only represented 25% of the total pot. Or do I have to stick to the actual percentage amounts at the time of the bet?

I know the answer is partially player dependent, as there might be some fold equity involved, but I am just looking for a specific answer regarding only the equity formula.

In short, do you take into account the money already in the pot when you bet? Or do you disregard the amount in the pot, and always base your betting decisions on the fact that you are contributing 50% because you are heads up, and therefore any betting with less than a 50% hand equity is –EV?

Thanks

[Villain]

If the ONE thing you are considering is pot equity, never bet heads-up unless you have greater than 50%. Obviously in real life there are a number of other factors to consider.

[Gregg777]

Villian,

I understand there are other factors, type of opponent, opponent's betting patterns, table image, folding equity, etc. I am just inquiring specifically about the equity aspect.

Thanks for your answer, it helps. If only considering equity, and you are heads up, then it must be at least 50%, regardless of the amount already in the pot. Correct?

So to put it a different way. If you were only going to consider equity, if you bet with less than a 50% hand equity, it would be -EV because your expected win rate is less than 50%. Therefore you are contributing 50% to win less than 50%.

Got it. But I still don't understand why you shouldn't factor in the pot amount at all.

For example, back to the $10 pot. If I bet $5 with only a 40% equity, that means I will win the pot only 40% of the time.

However, assuming I have a 40% equity, if I bet $5 into a $10 pot ten times and won only four, my results would be that I invested $50 ($5 x 10), and won $80 ($20 x 4).

So I would be plus $30. Correct?

Where am I going wrong with my math???

[Villain]

Pot doesn't matter in your example of only looking at PE.

$10 pot, HU. You have 40% equity.

1) You are checked to and bet $5, oppenent calls: pot=$20. Your share = $8. Net = $8-$5=$3


2) You are checked to and check: pot=$10. Your share = $4. Net = $4-$0 = $4

$4 > $3

[edit] So in your example where you got a $30 profit, you need to compre that to the $40 you could have had by checking 10 times.

[Gregg777]

Thank you very much Villian!

My existing equity was missing in my equation.

One last question regarding equity. If my aggressive opponent bets into me, and I have 40% equity, and there is at least a 15% chance he is bluffing, does this make it correct to call?

I understand you should rely more on pot odds for calling, just curious.