Fold overpair on the turn?

[Philuva]

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (5 handed) converter

No read on SB, but BB is a loose losing passive player.

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, Hero ?????.

And what is you plan for the river if you continue?

[esspo]

The line your opponent took is my favorite line heads up out of posistion against a pre-flop raiser who has even a hint of agressiveness. You get 5.5 BB out of him/her instead of 3.5 BB by check-raising the turn and I always, I mean always, get paid off. Especially when there are other players in the pot who you can trap for multiple bets on the istallment plan. Yum Yum.

That said, against a PP unknown I am LOATHE to lay down an over pair.

So it all comes down to math.

[Insert math calc here].

In conclusion, I think I call the 3-bet and fold the river unimproved, which would include the board pairing.

[Philuva]

My thoughts.

When he bets out on the flop and just calls, I put him on on a pair or a draw. When he bets out agains on the turn, it looks like he picked up a draw again and decided to bet it, with a hand like T9, 89, As8s. I figure with a 2 pair hand, he gos for a CR. When he 3 bets it, now I think he has J9 as he was betting his open ender on the flop and decided to bet, 3bet on the turn.

So I laid it down on the turn.

Anyone else?

[Kevin J]

I've found that it can sometimes prove very costly trying to get inside the head of a Party 15-30 player. The problem is, if you're even a little off on what he'd play and how he'd play it, you could be making a huge mistake by folding.

Btw- Is it THAT wrong to just call the turn and avoid such a precarious decision?

[roy_miami]

I would never fold an overpair in this situation. At least try to improve to 2 pair on the river and make a decision from there. Short handed game I call down almost 100%.

[elindauer]

Hi Phil,

Although I think you may be drawing thin, I believe you should call down. You have lots of outs against 2 pair. Your opponent may be overplaying a pair + draw hand. Your opponent may be an idiot. None of these things is quite enough individually, but taken together they add up to a showdown.

my 2 cents.
Eric