Hypothetical- Gaurenteed profit with sports betting?

[ilikebigbets]

I have a hypothetical question to pose to all and maybe someone can assist me to determine whether or not this is at all possible...

A local bookie that I know has offered me 25% of people's losses that I hook him up with as I am acting as an agent of his, bringing him new customers. So if I acted as my own customer without his knowledge and I lost 5k in week 1, i would only have to pay $3,750 of the losses (this is net losses, so if i won 6k in week 2 i would get the total of 6,000... if the following week, week 3 i lost 1000 i would have to pay it fully, etc.) . My question is: is it possible to bet opposites online at the reliable sportsbook (i.e. pinnacle) that offer -105 lines vs. the bookie's standard -110 lines and somehow guarentee myself a win? Is it possible to give myself a lot of positive ev?

Further, how does this bookie (who has tons of customers) make a consistent profit by giving his agents 25% of net losses and giving 10% to an online service that takes on all of the accounting and receiving of the bets, etc.

Seems to good to be true for me, so maybe someone might/could enlighten me.

Thank you,
ilikebigbets

[Iceman]

I assume he means 25% of net losses over a period of time. So if you make mutually cancelling bets with him and with Pinnacle, and you win 10000 and lose 11000 on his book, while you lose 10500 and win 10000 on Pinnacle, he'll rebate you 250 of that 1000 but you'll still be down 250 overall. It's like a poker site agreeing to refund part of your rake - it will improve your results but it won't guarantee that you will become a winning player.

As for how he makes a profit, it's a lot better to get 75% of the profit from someone's action than 0% of it. And only a small fraction of players can even overcome the -110 juice in the long run - if he gets square action or roughly balanced action then it's pure profit.

[junkmail3]

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So if I acted as my own customer without his knowledge ... is it possible to give myself a lot of positive ev?


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This looks like a very -EV situation.

[kdog]

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Further, how does this bookie (who has tons of customers) make a consistent profit by giving his agents 25% of net losses and giving 10% to an online service that takes on all of the accounting and receiving of the bets, etc.



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It's called "make-up" and it's fairly common. Kind of like a rake rebate for sports betting.

As for how he makes money, remember, you only make money if he does. If the action you send in wins, then you have a red figure to work off. More often than not, you are also responsible for anything your players bet, at least commission wise. If that's the case it's better that they go thru you instead of him directly so you can keep an eye on things. Somebody betting and losing a significant amount that they don't have can really suck(I know).

As for only giving the guy your own action to get back some of your losses, that's fine but unless you are betting fairly decent money I wouldn't expect the deal to last too long. Think of an affiliate who brings in no customers but himself.

If you do have people you can steer to the guy I would say 25% is a bit low. I used to get 40% but that was before internet sportsbooks became popular and there were plenty of dinosaurs around to deal with.