67s on the button, 8 to the flop, i flop top pair

[Entity]

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Our equity against 7 completely random hands is ~18.2%. The random hands equity is ~11.7%. A 'fair share' would be 12.5%. Notice that we are actually likely to improve and still lose, our showdown equity is significantly lower than our chance to improve.

If we are sure that 6 people will call our bet we can treat a bet like pumping a draw, actually we want to be fairly certain all 7 will call as atleast 4 of them hold a non-random hand.

If for some bizarre reason we were sure our opponents were so tight that a bet would cut it down to 1-2 villains we could bet for that reason. The problem is that we are going to end up somewhere between those extremities.

Betting to avoid giving infinite odds is a good point though. (And I retract the likeness to 2OP hands) It's pretty much the only point really.

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Our opponents won't have random hands when they call our bets. Randomness is weighting the odds of AA and 82o equally likely as calling bets on this board and that's bad from what I can see.

As I said to a friend, you're not going to win this pot as often as you'd like, but you'll win it more than often enough to justify putting bets -- be it one or multiple -- in on the flop.

Rob

[Nick Royale]

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Notice that we are actually likely to improve and still lose, our showdown equity is significantly lower than our chance to improve.


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Hitting a 7 or our straight won't likely lose the hand, so we have 6 pretty clean outs. Hitting a 6 would be dangerous, but not devasting. Plus we're likely to already hold the best hand.

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If we are sure that 6 people will call our bet we can treat a bet like pumping a draw, actually we want to be fairly certain all 7 will call as atleast 4 of them hold a non-random hand.


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You have to realise we're not up against random hands here. Eliminate AA-77 and 55/33 would give a better estimation of our equity.

This is an easy bet.

Where in Sweden do you live?

[Rudbaeck]

Good thing I took my own advice and started participating here again, I obviously picked up some bad thinking during my absence.

Nick, I live in Uppsala, a real university town. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[TheHip41]

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The flop bet is correct and necessary, so is the flop call.

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I understand that the call is automatic when it's check/raised, but I take exception to the bet being obviously correct.

This bet does nothing to defend our hand. Anyone with any hint of a draw, even two overcards, is correct to call.

The bet does nothing to protect our hand, our equity will change dramatically on the turn, either up or down. I see this is a pretty clear check actually.

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I think alot of hands will fold to a flop bet. If someone limped in with K9o, they might fold, if someone has 22, they might fold.

As the hand went, I'm checking the river, seeing as you are losing to everything he would c/r the flop with except hands like A3. If he has a 5 or a 7, or 88, you lose

[Nick Royale]

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Nick, I live in Uppsala, a real university town. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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Oh, I was thinking about studying there, but the only living I seemed to be able to get was in a bunker half way to stockholm. I have a couple of friends studying there though.

[7stud]

I'm having a hard time following discussions like this in the Small Stakes HE forum. General statements like:

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..you have a fair amount of equity.

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or

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Not to mention that we easily have enough equity on the flop to put a bet in and grow the pot a little.

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are totally unsupported. If another poster says, "..you don't have much equity" then who wins the argument?

At least this poster tried to quantify it:

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Our equity against 7 completely random hands is ~18.2%. The random hands equity is ~11.7%.

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but what does that mean? Is the equity against 7 random hands 18.2% or 11.7%?

As for this statement:

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Our opponents won't have random hands when they call our bets.

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it seems to me if the opponents don't have random hands, then the hero's equity is even less. So, how does making that statement support the argument that the hero has plenty of equity to bet/raise?

Confuzzled.

[Nick Royale]

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it seems to me if the opponents don't have random hands, then the hero's equity is even less. So, how does making that statement support the argument that the hero has plenty of equity to bet/raise?

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If our 7 opponents have random hands that will include AA-77 and 55/33. In this case it's not likely that anyone of the 7 opponents holds these hands which means we're in better shape than being up against 7 random hands. When they call they won't have hold a hand like T2o or AA, but we still have top pair and a gut-shot meaning we'll be ahead most of the time and have a nice re-draw when we don't.

Those facts make this an easy bet imo.

[mack848]

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This bet does nothing to defend our hand. Anyone with any hint of a draw, even two overcards, is correct to call.

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When overcard hands fold to our flop bet - we gain A LOT! (Not to mention that we easily have enough equity on the flop to put a bet in and grow the pot a little)

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Well, hoping that big fields of small stakes fish all will make incorrect lay downs is stretching it a bit.

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It is potentially a coup if 2 or 3 opponents fold overcards. If the turn is a J, you'll be happy that JT folded.

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This bet does nothing to defend our hand. Anyone with any hint of a draw, even two overcards, is correct to call.

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When overcard hands fold to our flop bet - we gain A LOT! (Not to mention that we easily have enough equity on the flop to put a bet in and grow the pot a little)

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Well, hoping that big fields of small stakes fish all will make incorrect lay downs is stretching it a bit.

This hand is similar to the TT example in 'Two Overpair Hands' in SSH. I'll happily claim that Ed would agree to wait for the turn. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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I think the difference between this hand and Ed's TT example is that we have more redraws to improve here. I don't see the flop bet as a protection bet, I see it as a value bet - we have 7-9 outs to get better here.

I think we should pop the turn but I am in the "over aggro" stage of my transformation from weak-tightie to 2+2er LOL. I agree with the consensus check down on the river.

[7stud]

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it seems to me if the opponents don't have random hands, then the hero's equity is even less. So, how does making that statement support the argument that the hero has plenty of equity to bet/raise?

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If our 7 opponents have random hands that will include AA-77 and 55/33. In this case it's not likely that anyone of the 7 opponents holds these hands which means we're in better shape than being up against 7 random hands. When they call they won't have hold a hand like T2o or AA...

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I'm not following that argument. If you throw out a bad hand like T2o and a good hand like AA as potential hands for your opponents, why does that necessarily change the hero's random hand equity? In other words, won't those two hands offset each other?

In addition, it seems to me that people entering the pot are, on average, going to have better than random hands, which would serve to reduce the hero's equity versus the random hand equity.