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  #1  
Old 12-24-2005, 10:24 PM
milesdyson milesdyson is offline
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Default eh

<u>the effect of someone making a "bad" call on the turn.</u>

this isn't a hand post or anything, just a very random thing i decided to do on christmas eve because i was bored. most of you will be bored to death by reading this. it is nothing new. it's simply an exercise in accounting for our opponents implied odds. to be honest, it is neither useful nor practical.

You have A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and raise UTG. CO coldcalls, button coldcalls, the small blind calls with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and the big blind folds. Four players see a flop.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(9 SB)</font>
SB checks, you bet, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(6 BB)</font>
SB checks, you bet, Button folds, SB calls (at 7:1)

he is not bad enough to pay off with a rivered 9 or 7. are you happy that he called your turn bet getting 7:1?

he has 4 outs. he will hit on the river 4/(52 - our 2 hole cards - his 2 hole cards - the 4 board cards) times, which is 4/44 or 9.1% of the time.

call X the pot size
call Z his chance to hit

when he folds the turn, we win X (the pot).

when he calls the turn, we win the pot plus his turn call when he misses and lose two bets when he hits (because he will check raise):

(1 - Z)(X + 1 BB) - Z(2 BB)

in this example, Z is 9.1%.

(1 - .091)(X + 1) - .091(2) = X tells us the pot size when his call ends up exactly the same for us as if he were to fold.

.909X + .909 - .182 = X becomes

.727 = .091X

X = just about 8 BB. so, yes. when he calls at 7:1 we are happy.

if you look at it from his side, his implied odds are 2 BB on his draw (since we're assuming we're only calling the c/r). he will hit 9.1% of the time, which is just about 10:1. so his call is neutral.

if you 3-bet the river and call a cap, he can make a neutral call at 6 BB. if this were the case, you are not happy that he calls the bet at 7:1.

whatever
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  #2  
Old 12-24-2005, 11:02 PM
Fantam Fantam is offline
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Default Re: eh

This is the 1st time that I have seen you make a mathematical post Miles !

Anyway I am impressed and I am sure that you have got your maths correct !

I think that I would have probably continued to bet or raise blindly with my set of Aces. (That does not mean that I would have been correct)

Merry Xmas [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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  #3  
Old 12-25-2005, 03:34 AM
Yerma Yerma is offline
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Default Re: eh

Hey poker nerd, happy holidays.
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  #4  
Old 12-25-2005, 04:12 AM
Redd Redd is offline
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Default Re: eh

Miles,

It seems counterintuitive that his call is +EV for you and EV-neutral for him; if this were the case, in the long run wouldn't this hand generate a net profit?

[ QUOTE ]

if you look at it from his side, his implied odds are 2 BB on his draw (since we're assuming we're only calling the c/r). he will hit 9.1% of the time, which is just about 10:1. so his call is neutral.

[/ QUOTE ]
Where is the 10:1 number coming from? It looks like SB is expecting to win the 7BB pot plus the 2BB from you on the river; his BB on the turn isn't in the pot yet when he's making his decision. Why isnt he getting 9:1 implied to call the turn here?
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  #5  
Old 12-25-2005, 12:12 PM
checkmate36 checkmate36 is offline
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Default Re: eh

Don't let donks c/r you when your trying to have a happy holiday.

Happy Christmas
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  #6  
Old 12-25-2005, 02:29 PM
milesdyson milesdyson is offline
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Default Re: eh

[ QUOTE ]
Miles,

It seems counterintuitive that his call is +EV for you and EV-neutral for him; if this were the case, in the long run wouldn't this hand generate a net profit?

[ QUOTE ]

if you look at it from his side, his implied odds are 2 BB on his draw (since we're assuming we're only calling the c/r). he will hit 9.1% of the time, which is just about 10:1. so his call is neutral.

[/ QUOTE ]
Where is the 10:1 number coming from? It looks like SB is expecting to win the 7BB pot plus the 2BB from you on the river; his BB on the turn isn't in the pot yet when he's making his decision. Why isnt he getting 9:1 implied to call the turn here?

[/ QUOTE ]
hey redd -

that was unclear, but in that section i am talking about when it becomes EV neutral for him to call, and that is when the pot is 8 BB before he calls.
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  #7  
Old 12-25-2005, 06:03 PM
nomadtla nomadtla is offline
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Default Re: eh

You should be bored on the eve's of major holidays more offten. Good stuff Miles.
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