Worse Pooh Bah ever...

well, well, well...

of course this has nothing to do with post-flop play.


equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.2919 % 44.06% 00.23% { K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 55.7081 % 55.47% 00.23% { A4o }

[Knoler]

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FOLD Preflop, terrible terrible play, you want to learn start there.

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How is this bad? If he's 30/20 he's going to be raising a ton of stuff on the button and Ax is way too strong to throw away HU.

If you're going to call someone's play 'terrible' at least put a sentence or two as to WHY you think so. Aren't we supposed to be thinking players?

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I agree! I really don't like when people pick apart a play without some explanation or discussion.

That said, I think this is a fold. Even with him raising 20% of his hands, we're at best a 60/40 favorite. About 30% of the time (that he's raising), we'll be toast to a pocket pair or a higher Ax. We're going to be dominated by him more often than the other way around. He's got position, so he'll be able to punish us when he's got a real hand. And we've got a guy behind us.

I think the gap concept still applies -- even to folks who are probably stealing 30% of the time. I think this is a play from the BB, but not the SB. In the SB, I'd rather have more of a hand.

One other note -- I think this is the kind of hand where you win a small pot or lose a bigger pot. I don't think that you're giving up lots of value by mucking this, and this may avoid putting you in some very difficult post flop situations.

That said, if you're going to play it, you have to 3-bet it, and if this guy has been taking shots at your blinds, it's not bad to push back for meta reasons.

I'm more inclined to bet this turn than c/r it, but I don't have anything really bad to say about it, other than I'm not generally a big fan of the c/r - fold to 3-bet line. (Because I'd often rather invest just as much money and see showdowns) However, once we get there and we've been 3-bet I don't see very many hands that we beat.

We're getting roughly 4:1 effective to call down -- I don't think we win 20% of the time here. Good fold.

I'm interested to hear other opinions. Does anyone worry he's doing this with AT or less a lot, where we've got lots of chopping outs, in addition to the hands where he has us crushed?

-Brian

[oxymoron]

Again I think it's player dependant. Against most types I'm folding this preflop. However, if someone continues to beat away at my blinds (not so much concerned about my SB as my BB though) I'll go to war with a hand like A4o. But I really mean I'll go to war. I'll cap that TAG with my A4o and normally unless they have a great hand a TAG will respect my move. I'm a tight player so they have to put me on a hand and hopefully they back off my blinds.

A4o is just too marginal of a hand to 3bet preflop against a steal. I actually think this could be a case for calling and hoping the BB comes along. If this is purely a steal the button doesn't want it to be 3 way with a marginal hand. I'll admit that I don't make this move but I can see cause for it. Normally you don't want it 3way either but this is more for metagame purposes for a button that is attempting to steal too much.

[imported_leader]

I don't like PF at all. You're OOP against a good aggressive player. So even if you're better then his range what generally is going to happen is: when he makes his hand, he going to let you lead and then make you pay on the turn or river; when you make you're hand, he's going to fold; when neither of you make a hand or when you both do, he'll make generally correct decisions on what to draw too, what to call down with, and what to bluff you with. Of course, these factors can be over come if you have a good enough hand. A4o isn't close to qualifing, IMO. FWIW, I think call pf-cr a lot of flops is much better then 3-bet and lead if you’re going to defend in this situation simply because he'll probably have more respect for the cr and you can pick your spots. For example, I wouldn't pick this flop. As for the turn, I don't like folding to a 3-bet when you screw play someone because people tend to be somewhat pissed after you pull that and might 3-bet you with air or a lower pair.

[donger]

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FOLD Preflop, terrible terrible play, you want to learn start there.

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How is this bad? If he's 30/20 he's going to be raising a ton of stuff on the button and Ax is way too strong to throw away HU.

If you're going to call someone's play 'terrible' at least put a sentence or two as to WHY you think so. Aren't we supposed to be thinking players?

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I agree! I really don't like when people pick apart a play without some explanation or discussion.

That said, I think this is a fold. Even with him raising 20% of his hands, we're at best a 60/40 favorite.

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I just wanted to say that 20% is the TOTAL number of hands he's raising, and this is going to be progressively weighted towards the button. The highest percentage of hands he raises is going to be opening on the button, and I would guess it's 40% plus here.

I misread this original thread and thought that hero was the BB. This is too thin of values to get involved with from the SB in my opinion. You can't help but play this from the BB, but from the SB your price is going to be a lot higher (you need to three-bet if you do play to try to get it HU, and this can backfire with the BB still in the pot.) You also aren't THAT big of a favorite against his range and out of position against a good player, which tips this to a fold preflop.

Postflop, (once you've made it this far) just bet the turn. This is a bad spot to try a screwplay. Villain is probably going to check a lot of hands that he would have called down with and probably bet a lot of hands you're behind.

[TomBrooks]

PREFLOP: I think I'd let this go.

FLOP: Eh, I might check/peel

TURN: I'd probably check/call or bet/call. With a draw heavy board, I'm not certain Villian wouldn't checkraise with a draw. I don't want to risk having to pay three three bets on the turn with this hand, but I'd probably like to take it to showdown.