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  #11  
Old 12-19-2005, 08:29 PM
splashpot splashpot is offline
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Default Re: Odds of a major downswing?

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I'm just wondering what the odds are that a long term 15% ROI player could lose 11 buy-ins over a 300 SNG stretch.

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Using the ROI simulator, I ran 10,000 simulations of 300 games each for a 15% ROI player. The largest drop out of the 10,000 was 57 buyins. 20% of the 10,000 had a drop larger than 11 buyins.
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  #12  
Old 12-19-2005, 08:32 PM
bluefeet bluefeet is offline
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Default Re: Odds of a major downswing?

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cool link, how come u have a .com domain?

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It's the fine work of "rvg72" of course...

I host a couple sites for my kids sports/school. I had one not in use and had visions of creating a blog of some sorts...just haven't gotten around to it yet.
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  #13  
Old 12-19-2005, 08:40 PM
PartySNGer PartySNGer is offline
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Default Re: Odds of a major downswing?

Results:

For a 15% ROI player, there's a 96.2% chance that you will be breakeven or better over 300 SNGs.

As for my question, there's about a 1.2% chance of that drop occurring over 300 SNGs.
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  #14  
Old 12-19-2005, 08:52 PM
pergesu pergesu is offline
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Default Re: Odds of a major downswing?

[ QUOTE ]
cool link, how come u have a .com domain?

[/ QUOTE ]

Cause he's a [censored] OG double OG ya heard?
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  #15  
Old 12-19-2005, 08:56 PM
Mr_J Mr_J is offline
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Default Re: Odds of a major downswing?

I think you should be calculating the chance that a 15% player has a -10 buyin 300 sng run within 1800 sngs.
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  #16  
Old 12-19-2005, 08:58 PM
PartySNGer PartySNGer is offline
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Default Re: Odds of a major downswing?

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should be calculating the chance that a 15% player has a -10 buyin 300 sng run within 1800 sngs.

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No, I shouldn't. That would tell me my % chance of having a 10 buyin drop, which would obviously be higher than my chances of being down 10 buyins over any 300 SNG stretch. I wanted to know the chances of myself having a 10 buyin drop over 300 SNGs, and now I know the answer. Thanks bluefeet!
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  #17  
Old 12-19-2005, 09:13 PM
bones bones is offline
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Default Re: Odds of a major downswing?

The chances of having a 10 buyin drop over 300 is pretty close to 100%, if not 100%.
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  #18  
Old 12-19-2005, 09:21 PM
Mr_J Mr_J is offline
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Default Re: Odds of a major downswing?

[ QUOTE ]
That would tell me my % chance of having a 10 buyin drop,

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You didn't understand me. I was suggesting you calculate the odds that a 15% player will have a -10 buyin drop over 300 sngs, within his 1800-1900 sng sample. You might be 1% or 5% to experience -10 buyins over 300 sngs, but you have played 1800-1900 and not 300, which makes this much more likely.
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  #19  
Old 12-19-2005, 09:32 PM
Pokerscott Pokerscott is offline
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Default Re: Odds of a major downswing?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That would tell me my % chance of having a 10 buyin drop,

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You didn't understand me. I was suggesting you calculate the odds that a 15% player will have a -10 buyin drop over 300 sngs, within his 1800-1900 sng sample. You might be 1% or 5% to experience -10 buyins over 300 sngs, but you have played 1800-1900 and not 300, which makes this much more likely.

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Exactly.

Flip a coin 6 times. Chance you get six straight tails is 1/64.

Flip a coin 100 times and the chance you stop somewhere along the line and post "Hey! I just got 6 tails in a row!" much much higher.

Here is a link to a post where I put some tables that answer your question if you are a 10% ROI or 20% ROI. I didn't do the 15% case though.

ROI variance tables

Pokerscott
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  #20  
Old 12-19-2005, 09:32 PM
rvg72 rvg72 is offline
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Default Re: Odds of a major downswing?

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[ QUOTE ]
Search for the ROI simulator. It will run simulations that will tell you this.

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ROISimulator Hosted

Original Thread

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Thanks for mentioning the app - glad it is getting some use.

rvg
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