4HANDED. PARTY20. 57TP .

[jason_t]

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That does not change my EV calculation because I assumed you put in no more bets on the river when behind.

But, intuitively, don't you see putting in extra bets while 75% likely to be a 2-out dog must be wrong?

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yes, i do. but we are seeing a showdown. and id rather put in bets on the turn when i have at least 2 outs than on the river when i am drawing dead.

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And open yourself up to paying a 5th bet on the river?

[baronzeus]

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I see your perspective better now, but I still disagree because I think we can correctly fold on some river cards such as A's and 3's. In fact I think it's very unlikely he bluffs a worse hand unimproved on the river, so we should be seeing a lot of free showdowns against his AK/AQ whatever when he has it. No need to put in the 4th bet on the turn.

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i think im underestimating how often we get sucked out on here.

but im looking over the hand again and i really think we are ahead more than 25% now. (thanks partygirl [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]) this is given the description of the player, fv's image, and the board. i really think he can 3bet with any ace here. so im rethinking.

[flawless_victory]

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I see your perspective better now, but I still disagree because I think we can correctly fold on some river cards such as A's and 3's. In fact I think it's very unlikely he bluffs a worse hand unimproved on the river, so we should be seeing a lot of free showdowns against his AK/AQ whatever when he has it. No need to put in the 4th bet on the turn.

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given the description of the player, fv's image, and the board. i really think he can 3bet with any two cards here

[/ QUOTE ]no doubt.

[wheelz]

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so you're saying if he bets the river and you don't improve you're folding??

[/ QUOTE ]depends on timing/card... i dont decide this stuff in advance, generally.

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so you're taking a line against a guy on tilt where you put in 4 bets no matter what and sometimes fold to a 5th bet, when you could just call down and see a showdown guaranteed for 4 bets. how can that be better?

[joker122]

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That does not change my EV calculation because I assumed you put in no more bets on the river when behind.

But, intuitively, don't you see putting in extra bets while 75% likely to be a 2-out dog must be wrong?

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yes, i do. but we are seeing a showdown. and id rather put in bets on the turn when i have at least 2 outs than on the river when i am drawing dead.



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here's the big problem with this - he will still bet the river with an overpair at least some of the time. even if it's a miniscule percent of the time it still cuts into our EV that much.

[flawless_victory]

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so you're saying if he bets the river and you don't improve you're folding??

[/ QUOTE ]depends on timing/card... i dont decide this stuff in advance, generally.

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so you're taking a line against a guy on tilt where you put in 4 bets no matter what and sometimes fold to a 5th bet, when you could just call down and see a showdown guaranteed for 4 bets. how can that be better?

[/ QUOTE ]obviously i dont believe he will bluff the river after i fourbet the turn.. that would be a bit insane... i didnt say he was on full blown tilt, i said " may be a little tilty," or something...
note that i dont have a big problem putting in five bets here.. i wouldve likely bet the river myself if a 9 had come (depends on timing tells), but i thought that 6 would likely prevent Ahigh from calling.
basically being bet into on the end is just not gonna happen often... if he bet an utter blank, id most likely pay it off.

[wheelz]

i can't believe how much you rely on timing tells... i was taught to ignore them.

[ALL1N]

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river 6.
checkcheck.

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note that i dont have a big problem putting in five bets here.. i wouldve likely bet the river myself if a 9 had come

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so you're saying if he bets the river and you don't improve you're folding??

[/ QUOTE ]depends on timing/card... i dont decide this stuff in advance, generally.

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So you're capping the turn but you're ahead at a frequency where the river bet is fairly marginal?? It has the feel of a live hand in that you're using a play which relies on the tells it creates in the opponent's reaction to gauge what to do next. I can't say I like capping the turn without a strong sense of how I'm going to play the river - it's online and I reckon you're probably overvaluing the timing tell you'll get here.

Anyway, given what you think of your ability to read him on the river, it seems fine. I wouldn't like the play if you were never value betting the river.

[flawless_victory]

he rolled QJo, i busted out laughing.