AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday

[AceHiStation]

This is an easy decision for me depending on my mood. I was 90% sure of his holdings(mid PP) when reading the post and would fold this 90% of the time. Only reason I consider a call here is if I end up saying "I'll double up or I'll play cash games". I've made this call before, but usually I like a fold here.

[woodguy]

When figuring out your edge you need to look at the odds of winning the hand vs. the price the pot is giving you.

In this case:

If we assume that UTG+1,UTG+2 and the blinds fold the pot will have 3735 in it and it will cost you 3060 to call, so the pot is laying you 1.22 -1.

If you put the raiser squarely on JJ, you are a 46-54 dog or 1.17 against to win.

Because 1.22>1.17 , basically the pot is laying you a small edge IF you put the raiser squarely on a pair.

You have to allow some other hands in your range, which makes it a very easy call.

So yes, if there is a significant edge, it lies in the villian doing this without a pair, which is not unheard of since there is 525 when the pot gets to the villian, he may be making a move to pick up the dead $$$ with a squeeze play. Those who say he absolutely has to have a pair here haven't played enough poker.

Others will also argue that you will significantly outstack the rest of the table if you win, so that is worth taking "coin flip" for.

Regards,
Woodguy