I'm no Joe Tall, but...

[shadow29]

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I dont understand this one. Even with 4 outs you are not getting odds to call. calling 2 cold you are only getting 5:1 can you explain?

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At the time I figured that BB had a small flush. I was 100% certain that he had a flush. Like 90% sure he had a flush <J. Button was a complete donkey, he could have pretty much anything here. Including 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]x. I figured that I was WA of Button, thus I was only worrying about BB. 7 * 0.9 = 6.3

6.3 + 2 = 8.3 (assuming that Button has an A)
6.3 + 4 = 10.3 (assuming that Button does not have an A or a 4)
6.3 + 0 = 6.3 (assuming that Button has a 4)

There are 3 aces left in the deck.
There are 2 fours left in the deck.

*Here's where my math suckiness comes into play*

Thus, I have 10.3 outs (41/46) times, 8.3 outs (43/46) times and 6.3 outs (44/46) times.

This math might be wrong here. Aaron can help me out. But whatever. When we do a weighted average here we get more than 7 outs.

Getting 5:1 I need a little more than 7 outs to call profitably. Thus, I called.

Note that I didn't do this math then, but rather thought it through intuitively like this:

"I'm almost positive that I'm ahead of Button here. He could have a weak Ace. I'll keep that in mind. BB almost certainly has a flush. But how high? Fairly certain it's low, that's why he waited until the turn so he could hope to force out singleton clubs. Or maybe he was just slowplaying. Either way, I think that my club outs are worth something. But I know I beat him if I catch a Jack or a 4. But if I catch a 4 then any A beats me. Button could have an A. But I think that the times that he doesn't have an A outweigh the times he has an A. I'm also sure to get 2 bets on the river. Thus, I call." (And tell Baronzeus to stfu in the aim box)

Now my thoughts on the river, "Hm well I hit my hand. BB is almost certainly value betting a flush here. I beat BB. If I raise, Button will fold his junk. But if I raise and Button has an A, I'm getting 3-bet and BB will fold and I'll have to fold too. If I call, however, then Button's overcall = BB's call if I raised and Button did not have an A. Ok, I call. Crap. Button folded. But I win. Ship it."

Paxosmotic, hope that is a zeejustin enough analysis for you.

I hope this post helps, too. I think it's one of my better posts. I just wish that I knew how to finish the math that my intuition knew.

And yes, I am a lucksack.

[trainslayer]

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Where please.

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Ok, maybe it's cause I havin a bad nite in the trenches at work, but I'm startin to git a [censored] attitude.

This is about the 3rd or 4th post this week that has gotten 0 responses.

Maybe I aint givin this one enuf time yet but I beginning to wonder if I smell.

Was it a dumbass question? Am I not qualified to participate in the discussion? Have I done somethin to piss somebody off? [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

There, that feels better.

[baronzeus]

lol, dude, I told you at the time, before you called, and I'll tell you again, 50% of the time you're drawing to 4 or 2 outs here. Lucksack!


No, but seriously, I think this is a bad call. In all honesty. People tend to like bigger cards so a bigger flush is likely. And if it's not the dude is flushed he could have something like A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or something that puts you down to 2 outs. Ouch, right?

[baronzeus]

Oh, and one more thing.

<*(((><

[macdaddy991]

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Where please.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, maybe it's cause I havin a bad nite in the trenches at work, but I'm startin to git a [censored] attitude.

This is about the 3rd or 4th post this week that has gotten 0 responses.

Maybe I aint givin this one enuf time yet but I beginning to wonder if I smell.

Was it a dumbass question? Am I not qualified to participate in the discussion? Have I done somethin to piss somebody off? [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

There, that feels better.

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He lead the turn and was raised. His pair was no good. Should have folded the turn.

Why get pissed that no one responds to you. There are quality posts all the time that get drown in the noise. There are always unansweed questions. We are the all singing all dancing crap of the world. Let it go.

[trainslayer]

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Let it go.

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It's gone. Was soon as I finished ranting. Thanks tho.

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He lead the turn and was raised. His pair was no good. Should have folded the turn.

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But why did he raise the turn? Was it cause he sensed weakness on the flop? Would it have played out differently if he'd continued his aggression on the flop. Just tryin to learn to quit spewin chips when it aint necessary.

[macdaddy991]

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Let it go.

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It's gone. Was soon as I finished ranting. Thanks tho.

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He lead the turn and was raised. His pair was no good. Should have folded the turn.

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But why did he raise the turn? Was it cause he sensed weakness on the flop? Would it have played out differently if he'd continued his aggression on the flop. Just tryin to learn to quit spewin chips when it aint necessary.

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Villan was the agressor. OP had TP but a scary board and not being the agressor made this a bad situation. Also there were only 5 BB in the pot at this point so there is not as much of a desire to take it down. Villan showed no fear raising the turn even with 3 diamonds showing. Hero should fold.

[trainslayer]

Ok, I know I'm beatin a dead horse here, but...

Hero raised pf. Previous post he says something about gettin aggressive. What hands does villian 3bet. Two high diamonds are a possibilty as well as AA and KK. But I would think so is 99, TT, JJ, maybe even a smaller pair. AK other than diamonds also possible.

I think that the action thus far doesn't define villians hand well enuf and the stop and go on the flop might.

Am I a retard?

[shadow29]

Aaron could you help me with the math here?

Basically what it boils down to is this:


3 players, one of whom you are certain has a flush. What are the chances that your flush will be higher if you hit a club on the river?

There are only two clubs higher than yours left in the deck. But where I have trouble is coming up with the combinatorics for the lower flushes and the higher flushes.

What I'm looking for at the end is a weighted outs number.

I e-mailed a friend and basically he laughed at me and told me that he could do this in his sleep.

(So I laughed at him and told him that I could write a sonnet in my sleep. Which talent would you rather have? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img])

I'll get to the other hand later.