If this guy raises, I'm moving in...

[Jester999]

This guy hasn't been sitting long so I have no read. As I bet on the flop, I thought to myself, 'if this guy raises me and the other guy folds, I'm moving in quickly'.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, 2$ BB (9 handed) converter

BB ($266)
UTG ($202.77)
UTG+1 ($98.3)
MP1 ($198)
Hero ($293.2)
MP3 ($198.1)
CO ($147)
Button ($130.35)
SB ($151.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, MP3 calls $8, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls $6.

Flop: ($27) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to $55</font>, UTG+1 folds.

Hero insta-pushes.

Thoughts?

[imported_anacardo]

Looks good. You've got fold equity vs. practically anything but AA, KK, or an absolutely charmed 55. Overcard may be no good.

[PokerFink]

I have absolutely nothing to add to this thread except to say that Anacardo is right and that I like your aggressive play.

Uhhhh.... this is kind of lame for my 1000th post.

[xorbie]

Here's the problem. You really only win 30% of the time when he calls, because I think he folds anything less than AK, and if we add KK to his range you win even less.

So really he has to be basically min-raising you with a huge range of hands, 2/3 of which should be KQ, KJ, KT, QQ, JJ, two hearts, etc.

Honestly I think I like a call and leading turn for half pot.

[BobboFitos]

this is actually a bad board for this move vs an unknown

but if they will call a raise with KQ... and fold to a 3bet... that's good.

the point is:
the average player that will call with a dominated hand wont fold it even to this action, and if thye are an otherwise solid player a raise here means AK or trips.

if he has lower flush draw (unlikely but small %) he folds, and ythat is a hand you'd like in.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's the problem. You really only win 30% of the time when he calls, because I think he folds anything less than AK, and if we add KK to his range you win even less.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, although KK or 55 are very unlikely given preflop action (no reraise w/ KK) and bayes theorem (only 1 possible combination with 55)

so really a raise is a dominated king which he may or may not fold (which you have 45% equity) or AK / A5 type, which I think is a big %. And there you have, as xorbie says, ~1/3rd equity.

i dont understand

[ QUOTE ]

Honestly I think I like a call and leading turn for half pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

why? If he has trips he can blow you off his hand, and if raises this flop most turns wont make him not like his hand. only thing this is good is if he gets passive and just calls, but if he just calls, he probablt was going to bet less then half pot anyway, so we dont need ot set our own odds.

[Ghazban]

You seem to be saying a raise here indicates villain definitely has a king. I don't think that's the case at all. Many players will raise any pocket pair here to test the preflop raiser (as the raiser will have a tough decision with QQ-99 and will probably throw away AQ/AJ, and any sort of mixing-it-up-by-raising nonpremium hand). Limp/calling in EP could also easily be AK so I'm not sure why you're ruling that out. OP's plan to push if he gets raised is good in that most pairs below kings will fold when, by the FTOP, they should call and flip coins.

The move is not terrible against an unknown, but I'd prefer to do it against a player I already know to be capable of folding. Some players will correctly read OP's line as a big flush draw and will call with any pair and any king. Just because you don't know him doesn't mean he hasn't datamined some stats on you.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]

The move is not terrible against an unknown, but I'd prefer to do it against a player I already know to be capable of folding. Some players will correctly read OP's line as a big flush draw and will call with any pair and any king.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this.

[ QUOTE ]

You seem to be saying a raise here indicates villain definitely has a king. I don't think that's the case at all. Many players will raise any pocket pair here to test the preflop raise

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont see as much as that as you, (I see minraises as "tests") but sure, a small % of their hand range will be a small pp. Very small %

[ QUOTE ]
Limp/calling in EP could also easily be AK so I'm not sure why you're ruling that out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't... reread my post. I said I think it's a possible hand and I dont see most unknowns folding AK here, and if they dont fold AK, your overcard out isn't live, thus your pot equity is lowered. So when both your folding equity and pot equity go down... Then EV shifts down.

[ QUOTE ]
P's plan to push if he gets raised is good in that most pairs below kings will fold when, by the FTOP, they should call and flip coins.

[/ QUOTE ]

almost all will fold, really tough to see someone making that bad of a call (although technically, correct here)

my point was I intrepret a flop raise here as a king, trips, or bluff/flushdraw/test with PP. If they have a king, any king, I'd much rather (as you say, as well) like ot have folding equity vs KQ etc. Trips aren't folding. I also think since you have NFD villain having 2 hearts is somewhat optimistic. Tying this all together, a flop raise on this board generally means they have something that can (correctly, given hands) put alot of chips into the pot.

If they would fold KJ for example, (with a read, you can discern) the play becomes fantastic, because most of the time they can't call you.

What does this all mean? That this play is good on one hand, but not the ideal board (which is what my first post said) for it.

What is the best line? I think the current line given was fine, it's really a decision once you bet the flop to fold call or raise (push, as any other commits you). And I would definately bet the flop, so I would be in the same situation.

villain made about a half pot raise, (35 more into a current pot of 67) so a call is 3:1 on just 9 heart outs if he has trips or AK, 12 outs if he has a K, 15 if he has a small pair. If we somehow have the best hand he probably has 6 outs. A call is tough though because we'd be OOP, and we dont know if Ace is good... so we stand to lose and not really gain too much more (a king would freeze, a weird bluff probably would stop, only positive is the unlikely smaller flush draw if we both hit would give us their stack DD) a fold is fairly similar to above, marginal ~0 ev because you dont have odds if you have 9 outs, but if you have 12 to 15 you do...

So the question is pushing pos EV, because if it's not, calling or folding are better. And if he only raises hands he wont fold to an all in... (or, even like ~85% of the time, because sure, occaisonally he will have weird bluff) then we have somewhere from 33 to 48% pot equity.

Pushing is probably best by a small amount, just want to throw in vs an unknown this isn't routine.

[xorbie]

(a) They won't minraise and
(b) they aren't going to have that as over 50% of their hand range in all likelihood.

[Jester999]

I'm actually suprised that this generated the discussion it did. I'm going to throw out some numbers and then pick and choose quotes throughout the reply to show you how I was thinking. And I had to think quick so it wasn't in great detail. I've played so many freaking hands in my life now, it just had a lot of feel to it.

The math:

You math guys feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but these are the numbers I came up with.

I'm a 2 to 1 dog against AK
I'm a 7 to 3 dog against A5
I'm a bit worse than 7 to 3 against 6 5
I'm 56 to 44 dog against KQ off
I'm pretty damn close to even money against most pair. I'm in a bit worse shape against QQ, JJ, and 10 10.

A couple of things before I go any further. I just put the 'average' profile on this guy before I made my decision. The people who play at this level are likely to have any of the hands mentioned above. I have to say that I downgraded the likelyhood of KK or 55 because I think MOST (not all), but most people would be praying I have a big hand and just call. Finally, when I added it up after his raise there was $102 in the pot. I was risking $135 more to win that $102 or if he calls then I'm risking $135 to win $237. Once I added up the size of the pot, I moved my slider and clicked my button.

[ QUOTE ]
Uhhhh.... this is kind of lame for my 1000th post.

[/ QUOTE ] I'm honored nonetheless. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
You really only win 30% of the time when he calls, because I think he folds anything less than AK, and if we add KK to his range you win even less.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've made this play on similar boards lately and have been called by K 10 and K 9. It was my gut feel as I was pushing the button that I didn't care in the least if the guy called with a King and a good kicker. My outs would then be clean and the pot was laying me the right odds.

[ QUOTE ]
Honestly I think I like a call and leading turn for half pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's push or fold. Either a heart or an Ace might ruin my market. I've put him to a decision.

[ QUOTE ]
this is actually a bad board for this move vs an unknown

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm MUCH more frightened if the board had cards lower than a King. People love pocket pairs and if the flop was like 8 5 5 with two hearts I'm not sure I feel as good about my move. I'll again explain further in a sec.

[ QUOTE ]
the point is:
the average player that will call with a dominated hand wont fold it even to this action, and if thye are an otherwise solid player a raise here means AK or trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know what kind of player it is. If he's solid, he's probably got a hand and the money's going in. Oh well, I've got outs. If he had a weak king, then I'm glad to go. This is one of the very reasons I play no limit. Finally, maybe he's somewhere in between. He's called with KQ suited or KJ suited but he's been working on his game and now he's a mildly thinking player. He's got a tough choice. I mean where does he think I am? I'm not sure fold equity is being given enough consideration here.

[ QUOTE ]
so really a raise is a dominated king which he may or may not fold (which you have 45% equity) or AK / A5 type, which I think is a big %. And there you have, as xorbie says, ~1/3rd equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

I live and breath at this level. You're giving the 'average joe' too much credit.

[ QUOTE ]
The move is not terrible against an unknown, but I'd prefer to do it against a player I already know to be capable of folding. Some players will correctly read OP's line as a big flush draw and will call with any pair and any king. Just because you don't know him doesn't mean he hasn't datamined some stats on you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course a read would be better, but in this case I don't thinks it's necessary to make a +EV play here. I also don't think the vast majority of the players would see a big draw here. Some, but not most. Just my feel after playing a while with this caliber of player.

[ QUOTE ]
I dont see as much as that as you, (I see minraises as "tests") but sure, a small % of their hand range will be a small pp. Very small %

[/ QUOTE ]

This is where science meets art and we'll probably have to agree to disagree. I think you vastly distort his hand distribution probabilities. I think he can have a BUNCH of different hands here. Some have me in a bad shape and some I'm alright against. Again, he may just fold. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
So the question is pushing pos EV, because if it's not, calling or folding are better.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm either pushing or folding. I just don't see how calling can be good for the reasons I mentioned above. I'm undoubtedly behind in the hand and many of the cards that make me ruin my market. Okay, that's redundant.

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing is probably best by a small amount, just want to throw in vs an unknown this isn't routine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Voila. We agree. In the end, I make this play everyday and twice on Sunday and one of the reasons I play within my bankroll. It's a fundamentally sound play (I believe) and it shows people I have some gamble to me. Hey, if you push too hard we're 'fixin' to play a pot'.