Big pot poker

There's 12.5 SB in the pot

So everything getting a worse shot than 1 in 5 (am I right?) should be out.

All the hands that hit a pair (just like we did after all), are going to stay since they have 5 outs (as do we). Why is our situation different? Why would it be good for us to call 2 bets, (which is what happens if you bet-call) and not for anybody else who got a pair? Not to mention the 4flushes.

The dude behind the wheel likely as an overpair, or two overcards, and HE's the one to worry about. I don't think we're *probably* in lead, I think we're probably *behind*, so I want to see the turn cheaply, and it either hits me, or it doesn't. For now, betting is throwing money in the raiser's pocket.

But maybe I'm missing something.

[grjr]

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All these people called 2 bets cold preflop. Do you really think they're going to fold ANY kind of a draw for 2 bets now the that pot is getting that much bigger?

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Maybe they will, maybe they won't. Many of these hands are making a mistake by calling two cold, however, and I want to give them the chance to err.

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Yeah, but who is the errant money going to in this hand? On the flop we don't have the best draw for sure and since there was a raise preflop and counting 4 other crummy hands it's probably less than 50% that we're even ahead now.

If there had been no raise preflop it would make much more sense to try and get people out on the flop. I just don't see it here.

[SlantNGo]

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Just for the record, is there anybody who would NOT raise this if the PFR were on their right?

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If that were the case, it's probably a good raise. However, OP's situation is totally different. It's much more likely for overcards to bet into Hero than for overcards to raise Hero's bet.

[grjr]

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Just for the record, is there anybody who would NOT raise this if the PFR were on their right?

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That's a different situation since you don't have the option of checking to see what everyone else is doing before you commit any money. You're either in or out at that point and if you're in you might as well raise.

Here we should use our early position advantage and see what's going on first.

[car ramrod]

I think this is a spot to check and see the action first. There are probably a few draws out there that are not going any where. We have tp, but the turn can weaken our hand with a lot of different cards. I want to see the turn card for as cheap as possible. It would suck to get raised or 3 bet on the flop.

[Shillx]

Hey this is a pretty interesting spot, and it is also one that confuses a lot of players. If you decide to bet, it should usually be done by using some kind of a read. This is the basic idea in these spots...

If he views you as a LAG - Go ahead and bet. A LAG would be betting a lot of hands here including many hands that the PFR will be ahead of. If he has two strong overcards like A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], I would venture to guess that he would raise here a significant % of the time considering that we will be betting hands like T9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 96 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] here.

If he views you as a non-tricky TAG - Check. A TAG isn't going to be betting this flop with a draw (or a very strong hand like a set). He would only bet this flop with a pair or maybe two pair, so the TAG PFR isn't going to raise us here unless we are beat. He will just take cards off against us with overcards. If you are seen as tricky (which you probably aren't) then it gets more complicated. A topic that is certainly not in the scope of this discussion.

If he views you as loose passive - Check for the same reason. A LP player will not bet here without top pair or better so it makes no sense for him to raise AK or AQ.

This is my basic gameplan for these types of spots when the PFR is a TAG. If the PFR is LAG, you would obviously want to bet since he will raise AK or AJ more then a TAG. If he is a bad passive player, then you should probably check and call here since you won't be up against overcards as often as you will against a TAG/LAG.

Brad

[grjr]

Hey Brad, aren't you kind of ignoring the other players erroneously on this BPF?