Playing online for a living week 26

[davidross]

New week, same results. Started Sunday night in a big hole….again. I keep reviewing my play to see if I’m on tilt to start as Homer once described it, but I don’t think that’s the case. But I seem to sit down and get 3 or 4 big hands cracked right off the bat, usually on the river. Then I miss on 3 AK’s in a row, and suddenly I’m down $150. Sunday I got down $250 before getting on a good roll. I ended up winning $160 for a decent 5 hour session. In fact it was a great session except for 1 table where I lost almost $400. I can never decide whether or not to leave a table where I’m running bad even though the game is good. Even though my gut tells me I’m snakebit, my head says “there are 3 guys here playing terribly, stick around”, so I stay, but I never got even with the suckouts. Monday afternoon was a disaster. I lost on all 4 tables and was down $450 heading into the evening. I had a good evening session winning $300 of it back but still down almost all of Sunday’s win. I’m up $12 for the week.

When I lose big like I seem to be doing every 3 or 4 days now I can’t help but think that there is no way my bad play cost me $450. The only way you lose that much in 3 hours is to get really bad cards, but how come I’m getting really bad cards every 3 days? I hope this is just the opposite end of the luck spectrum that saw me go 22 days without a loss when I started at Party. Clearly that was a bit of a positive deviation for me, but I wonder where the “norm” is? Back in my paradise 5/10 days I seemed to have one bad day a week, some weeks two, and some weeks none, but never 3 until that 3 week period where I lost big time. I haven’t had 4 winning days in a row since switching to Empire / Party full time. Although the games are tougher, I still think they are beatable. I feel that with a normal distribution of cards I will win at a decent rate, so I can’t help but think I’m getting worse cards than normal right now. Maybe I’m kidding myself, but I only have one win over $400 in October. I had 10 of them in September (granted there were some 5/10 days in there). I can’t help but fell I have a good run coming to me. We’ll see I guess.

I lost a best 2 out of 3 showdown with a maniac last night, that would have put me close to even last night with just a little better luck. It was very late and I was ready for bed, but the game was very juicy, and I was loathe to leave it. I open raised in LP with ATo and got 3 bet by the crazy man from the button. We saw a flop of A x x and I bet and got raised. Turn was a K, and I check/called. River a Q and again I check/called. He had KQ. Aaargh, A couple of hands later He raised and I called him from the blinds with 88. I flopped my set on a A 8 7 board and bet the flop and got raised (I expected him to raise), and then smooth called. Turn was a 2, he bet and I raised him. River a 5 and I bet, he raised, I 3 bet and he capped it. He had 75 and I won considerably more than I lost to him on the previous hand. Felling pretty smug we got to our 3rd and final showdown. I have QQ and I raise 2 limpers. A cold caller between us and he 3 bets from the blinds. I cap it and 5 of us see the flop of J 6 2 two clubs. He bet and I raised and he 3 bet and I capped and we were heads up going to the turn. Turn was the 7c putting a possible flush on the board. He bet and I raised and he 3 bet and I just called. I have the Qc. River is the Kd. He bet and I called. He had Ad Kh. Unreal. 4 outs and he played it like he had AA. I lost the tiebreaker and my will to play any longer. I finished the orbit and went to bed. I made notes and hope to see him again soon.

I wish I knew what he had. I have QJo in the SB. 4 limpers to me and I complete. BB checks. Flop is J 9 5 rainbow and I bet. BB raises me and there is one cold caller. I just call. Turn is a 4. I check and so does the BB. Clearly the cold call worried him too. CC bets and we both call. River is another 5. I bet by mistake. I can’t explain why, I was getting ready to check/call but I bet. They both folded. I guess I was probably good anyway, but I wish I knew.

An incorrect read that worked. I am UTG +1 with Jc Js when UTG raises. I 3 bet and we are heads up. Flop is As Jd 7s. He checks, I bet and he calls. Turn is Ts. He checks, I bet and he raises. I think the T helped him, I don’t think this is AK waiting for the turn to riase, and although he might have a flush, Ks Qs seems to be the only likely hand for that, and I still have outs if he does. I’m guessing AT or TT here so I 3 bet. He just calls. River is the awful Qd. He checks. What to do. I go with my read and I bet. I don’t think he has a K. He just calls. He has the very surprising QTo with no spades. Phew.

Tuesday I had a great afternoon session. I was up $340 for only 2 ½ hours of play. It looked good for one of those $400 days I’ve been missing, but after curling Tuesday night I came home and took another beating. Dropped $200 again to finish up only $136 to the good. Wednesday was another fantastic afternoon session. I won $575 in another 3 hour session. Wednesday night was a struggle, but I managed to win another $125 for a $602 day. Man I needed that. So up $750 for the week, but it’s going to be a short week. My wife’s birthday party is Saturday night so I won’t be playing at all on Saturday, and we have family coming to stay starting today, so my evening sessions will probably be limited too. Sure hope I can have another big day today.

The Canadian dollar is at a 10 year high against the US dollar. Yuck. It has gone up 20% since January, which means I have taken home 20% less than I would have if it had stayed where it was. Timing is everything.

I played a hand against another 2+2’er the other day where I completely misread the board and raised the river thinking I had made a straight. He just called and won with his pair of Aces. I had T8s and was on the flush draw. There was a Q and a 9 on board and when a 7 rivered for some reason I thought my 4 card straight meant something. I’m sure he’s wondering what the hell I was doing.

Changing tactics. I have As 6s in the SB and 4 people limp. I call and the BB makes it 6 to the flop. Flop is Ks 8s 4d. I check, pretty sure I’ll get a bet with the K on board. UTG bets and 1 LP call. I decide just to call here, and try to keep the BB in. I will often raise here too. BB does call. Turn is the 3s. Again I check, BB checks and UTG bets. Phew. I took a chance here because I don’t think the free card will hurt me. If the 4th spade comes on the river I won’t get any action, but I took the chance. Right now my plan is to smooth call once more and then bet the river. LP folds and I call. Now the BB raises!!! Change of plans. UTG calls. I think BB must have a smaller flush. I can raise here and he’ll call down the whole way, but what will UTG do? I decide to just call here and check raise the river unless another spade comes, then I’ll have to bet. River is 3d. Hmm. I hope BB isn’t on a set. I check, BB bets, UTG calls and finally I raise. They both call. BB did have a T high flush and UTG had the unbelievable 99.

It’s amazing too me how many times I have written something only to have it come true right away. After complaining about the lack of $400 days I had my 2nd in a row on Thursday, winning $464. Then after saying my longest winning streak at Empire was 3 days, I go and win for the 4th day in a row on Friday with a $240 win. That put me up $1,457 for the week and left me ahead $31,882 for the 6 months now complete. I took a day off on Saturday for the Party, my first day off since the end of June. The party was great, but I’m paying the price today. I’m exhausted and need to have a nap if I hope to play tonight.

I got into a stupid argument with another 2+2’er (Who didn’t know I was a 2+2’er) over one of the “Nice Chase” comments I hate so much. I don’t know why those set me off so much, I guess it’s just the arrogance of the person who seems to feel they deserve to win every hand they are ahead on going into the river. I had AKs UTG and raised. He 3 bet me from the Blind with 99. The flop was rags and he bet out. I called. Turn didn’t help he bet and I called. River brought my card (I can’t remember if it was the A or K) and he checked and called my bet. He hit me with the “nice chase” comment, and I answered with “I never know how to respond to idiots who say that”. I know I should just smile, but I knew this guy was a good player and should know better. Well now the war of words just escalated and the table tightened up almost immediately. Stupid on both our parts. Of course I’m sure he folds AK every time someone in the blinds bets into him.

Knowing your opponent. 1 MP limper to me with 99 also in MP. I limp along too. Button raises and BB calls. Now the limper 3 bets. Uh oh. I have a note on him and I read it. It has him limp-reraising with 53s. Hmmm. I 4 bet my 99. I’m not sure why, it was just an instinctive reaction. Both the button and BB call. Flop is 8s 4c 2c. MP bets out, and I raise. Both the button and BB fold. MP just calls. Turn is the Th. MP checks and calls my bet. River is the 5c. He checks and I checked behind him. He had 8h 6h. Oops, missed a river bet.

I think this was the right play, but ouch. I post in the cutoff and call an MP raise with As 9s. Button calls too, and the BB calls. Flop is Ac Qd 3c. MP bets out and I raise. 2 cold calls. Uh oh. Turn is the 9c. I check and the button bets. BB raises and MP folds. I think a long while trying to do the math. I have 4 outs, but have to pay $12 for a pot that’s currently got $60 in it. I folded thinking I would need a $120 pot to make it worth while, and of course a 9 rivered. Ouch.

I will post something next Sunday, but I think the format will be a little different. Cya at the tables.

Oh yeah, I played two people I had never seen before this week. One was nemed the Pokerbabe, and the other Babemeister. I threw out a look god play good comment to see if it was our babe but got no reply. I think she plays a lot higher than that so it's probably identity theft. THe babemeister seemd to ba a combination of Babe and Clarkmeister.

[1800GAMBLER]

Hey, still keeping updated and enjoying the posts.

Just wondering if you keep pokerstats or log these in excel? If so could you post them, or the hours played. Just wanted to ask some of the more math players what could be expected in the next 6 months from these results, seeing if we have finally hit the long term and would most likely repeat our it's possible to have longer lossing sessions and you could have a worse (or better) next 6 months. Thanks in advance to anyone who tells me.

[davidross]

I keep my daily results in Excel, separated by site and limit, and another spreadsheet for weekly totals only.

I don't know if any projections can be made because of the constantly changing quality of games. Already I've gone from 2 5/10 tables to 4 3/6 tables and several combinations of each.

[1800GAMBLER]

If you kept hours per session in these i'd be interested in running math on these, individually for sakes, site, winrate when playing number of tables. PM me if you want to and have that info.

If not, i'm interested in a weekly post including what info you have for the 6 months. I'm not doubting more interested in the swings.

Thank again, good luck.

[Bozeman]

Congratulations on a profitable half-year! (How much did you make at your last job?) (Do you know how many hours or hands you have played?)

Craig

[davidross]

Because I worked on contracts it's hard to say, but my best year was over $170,000 cdn. Unfortunately those days are gone and most of the offers I'm getting are in the 70K range, which would only clear me 40K. That 30K US works out to around 80K cdn per year and is tax free (at least for now). I would need to find a full time job paying around 140K to bring home the same. That's what makes it tough to give up the poker playing right now.

I don't have exact numbers of hours or hands, but I think 20 of those 26 weeks I played 45 hours, and 3 weeks at 35 and 3 at 20. so I guess I played 1,065 hours and made just under $30/hr. Hand sis tougher to figure out because I started playing 2 hands at a time, then went to 3 then 4. If we assume I averaged 3 tables at once and saw 60 hands per hour per table that would be 191,700 hands played. Wow. I should have gotten AA 875 times then. I wonder if I did?

[SwordFish]

David -

Add my vote for continuing the posts. They have helped many people here and I'm sure they must have helped you analyze your game as well.


[ QUOTE ]
that would be 191,700 hands played. Wow. I should have gotten AA 875 times then. I wonder if I did?


[/ QUOTE ]

If you had PokerTracker you would know [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
I know this has been discussed before, but considering how much you play, it is well worth the 7BB investment.

SF

[KemAces]

Hi, you know I've read your posts for the past few weeks (since maybe week 20) and each one sounds exactly the same. "I had an awful night, just awful, then made a bounce back and now I'm up $XXX on the week! This is hand was interesting... etc." I dont know how people can read this every week. Its bascially reading about another players profits and losses.. COOL! Maybe something a bit more exciting or helpful to other players would be nice rather than just a rant about your cash.

-KemAces [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Eihli]

You probably already thought of this, but just in case, I'll go ahead and suggest that you stop reading them.

[gonores]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi, you know I've read your posts for the past few weeks (since maybe week 20) and each one sounds exactly the same. "I had an awful night, just awful, then made a bounce back and now I'm up $XXX on the week! This is hand was interesting... etc." I dont know how people can read this every week. Its bascially reading about another players profits and losses.. COOL! Maybe something a bit more exciting or helpful to other players would be nice rather than just a rant about your cash.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi, Kem. You know I've read your posts for the past few weeks and each one sounds the same. "I was involved in this no-limit hand where I bet $XXX, and some guy called me and the river was X and I lost. What are the odds of this happening?" I don't know why people continue to read and reply to your posts, It's basically hearing about another player's bad beats....SWEET. Maybe posting something asking about why limit poker would be better for you or asking why we think you have a gambling problem would be nice rather than using this board as your own personal bad-beat forum.

Do yourself a favor and develop some interpersonal skills. If you don't like the posts, you don't have to read the damn things. Personally, I am really hoping David writes this book he is looking in to, because I will be the first in line to buy it. It is truly fascinating to watch how David's thought processes have changed at the table from the beginning of the experiment. It is also immensely helpful to me to see the fluctuations David encounters from night to night and from week to week, as previously I had no idea what a professional online poker player had to go through. The fact that you cannot appreciate the content of David's posts is just more evidence to pile on to the heap accumulated against you and your ability to become a winning player.

I've replied to many of your posts and I put a lot of effort in to them trying to help you (as many others on this forum have), and you just don't seem to be trying to get it. You are showing no progress and no intent to become better. The manhours I put into these posts could be put to use elsewhere, like playing poker for myself or asking my own questions to the board or replying to others who might take to heart the advice this board gives, so I am officially giving up on you, for whatever that is worth to you.

I hope you learn you need to change to be a winning player and a contributor to 2+2....I really do.

Doug