semi bluffing, flop or turn = more fold equity?

mc1023 · #1 10-02-2005, 07:17 AM

Ok villian is pretty standard 20-40 SH player, 30-20-3 over about 400 hands. The only thing that really stands out is that he is super aggressive on the turn, from what I've seen of him he likes to do the "raise for showdown or extra bet incase ahead" move a lot.

You have very good table image and haven't gone to showdown with a bluff and have had the goods every time and the other players at the table are aware of that, giving you lots of credit for your hands.

This is a THINKING player who is capable of laying down if he gets a read.

A) Pump the flop since you have very good equity of the pot and also hoping to get weak hands to fold.
B) See the turn and get tricky by trying to represent a big hand on a scare card or what not if you miss that is.

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (6 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, SB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero .....

My thought process on the turn was that if he was raising the turn with QQ-99 or KQ KJ KT he is raising for a free showdown on the river. If he had AK he is going to capp me and I've got to hit one of my outs. But if villian has one of the hands mentioned I think I can get a fold out of him on the river or right there on the turn depending on his holdings.. Thoughts?

#2 10-02-2005, 10:50 AM

If you think that there is a chance that the villain will fold if you 3 bet the turn, then 3 betting him is better than calling his turn raise. Investing the extra bet is worth it if it gives you a chance to win the pot right there. In general you should be 3 betting the flop and leading the turn instead of making a play on the turn. Not only does 3 betting the flop and leading the turn give you a significant amount of fold equity against this type of opponent, it is also less costly in the long run since you are investing an extra small bet with 2 cards to come. Whereas if you wait to make a play on the turn, you are investing an extra big bet with one card to come. Thats a big diffence and in most cases your folding equity between the two plays will not be much different. Since you are risking much more when you wait til the turn to make a play, you should have a good read on your opponent b4 deciding to take this route. Given the way you actually played the hand I think you should reraise the turn if you think your opponent is capable of folding some of the hands he will raise the turn with in that spot.

mc1023 · #3 10-02-2005, 11:09 AM

normally my default line on this type of hand is stay aggressive on the flop, but I had a good feeling if I had 3bet the flop and lead the turn and I had missed, I am getting raised again unless he decides to fold right there on the turn. Therefore I figured to wait until the turn to checkraise if I missed, but when the ace came up it gave me a scare card and additional outs to take the line I did.