Given enough time ...

judgesmails · #1 09-08-2005, 07:42 PM

Can you find a side you like in any game? Like tonight's NFL game for example - say at first glance you did not see anything in this game/line where you wanted to bet it.

But because it is the only game and you have all day to read, listen, and think about it - could you find a side/total to bet on and feel confident you have an edge? Or would you just be betting to have action?

lorinda · #2 09-08-2005, 08:26 PM

If the lines are set correctly, it would be impossible for you to ever win*
*see note.

Even if the bookies don't know exactly where to put the line they would get close enough to accidentally have it correct* on a large number of occasions.

*note: I'm using correct to mean an accurate representation of each sides' chances. This is not exactly how a book works as it is often more in the interest of the bookmaker to have an equal amount of money on both sides of the line to minimize their risk.

Lori

tech · #3 09-08-2005, 08:37 PM

Basically what Lori said, but just to add ... sure you can always find a side to bet, but that doesn't mean it is +EV. In my experience, you generally don't have to look too hard when you find a really good bet. They pretty much jump out at you.

Mr_J · #4 09-08-2005, 10:06 PM

"This is not exactly how a book works as it is often more in the interest of the bookmaker to have an equal amount of money on both sides of the line to minimize their risk."

This actually isn't true for the most part. They set lines that will give them the most EV for the risk they're willing to take, which generally doesn't mean balancing action.

zipo · #5 09-08-2005, 10:42 PM

>>Can you find a side you like in any game? Like tonight's NFL game for example...Or would you just be betting to have action?<<

I'm a Raider fan.

Any other questions?

thomastem · #6 09-09-2005, 01:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Can you find a side you like in any game? Like tonight's NFL game for example - say at first glance you did not see anything in this game/line where you wanted to bet it.

But because it is the only game and you have all day to read, listen, and think about it - could you find a side/total to bet on and feel confident you have an edge? Or would you just be betting to have action?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to try to add to what has already been said.

#1.
If a game's lines seem to be inline but you research and find a trend or statistic that changes your handicap of the game then yes. Keep in mind that I am talking about actual data not a gut call.

#2.

Big changing lines or finding a middle between 2 sportbooks can create opportunities that were not there at the beginning of the day.

#3

You are betting for fun and want action.

1 other important point is the incorrect assumtion that Book makers want even action for both sides of the line. Like sharps if they see a bigger profit with the public betting lopsided action on a bad line they will take it. It is +EV for them to do so.

scalf · #7 09-09-2005, 09:08 AM

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

..action babeeee; lol

ACTION

gl

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

RunDownHouse · #8 09-09-2005, 10:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
"This is not exactly how a book works as it is often more in the interest of the bookmaker to have an equal amount of money on both sides of the line to minimize their risk."

This actually isn't true for the most part. They set lines that will give them the most EV for the risk they're willing to take, which generally doesn't mean balancing action.

[/ QUOTE ]
In fact, most of the time it means deliberately unbalanced action.