33 - Should I be betting this flop?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter

BB (t2950)
UTG (t2000)
MP (t1105)
Hero (t4560)
SB (t2885)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t600</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls t400.

Flop: (t1300) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t800</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t1600</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t3700

Results below:
No showdown. BB wins t3700.

[Doc]

I think you have to bet it, I might have sized my bet a bit smaller to try to represent a Q.

Curious what other people think,

Doc

What hands will the BB just call your raise with? I think with pairs he probably re-raises or gets out of the way. He also would re-raise with AK and maybe AQ (let's assume he does so that these aren't a consideration on the flop). Maybe AJ and AT? KQ? Do you see him calling with KJ? KT? Aces worse than yours? I don't know the answers, but I think I've rephrased the question to better get at the central issue.

[patrick dicaprio]

what are you planning to do here check fold? you have to bet here for sure. if he doesnt have an A he isnt calling and you will take it down and by checking you give yourself a tough decision if faced with a bet. if you check and he called your raise with 99 or something you will not be happy. if he has this type of hand and you bet he isnt raising unless he is a very loose player in which case you know what to do when he raises.

Pat

I think the key here is that he's first to act and has checked to me. If he doesn't have an ace or queen I'm way ahead with aces up (unless he's playing Kx hearts, which isn't terribly likely, but where I'm still decently ahead). If I bet here, I give him the chance to check-raise bluff me with hands I'm beating (and which will be tough to call with a mediocre kicker), as well as hands that have me beat, and I don't see how I can tell the difference. If I check behind on the flop, I can re-evaluate on the turn, and if he leads with a worse hand I make an extra bet (potentially) when I raise without losing a lot more (necessarily) when he's got me beat.

I think these considerations are bigger because I'm raising from a steal position pre-flop, and I don't necessarily have to have anything here. A little added info, FWIW, he seemed like a decent enough player but I baited him into calling an all-in vs my BB special when I made a stealish looking all-in which is where half my current stack came from. He's also (assuming he's paying attention) seen me do all of the following in the last 20 hands or so, steal successfully, fold to a re-steal, and sniff out a semi-bluff with 2nd pair.

[ QUOTE ]
What hands will the BB just call your raise with? I think with pairs he probably re-raises or gets out of the way. He also would re-raise with AK and maybe AQ (let's assume he does so that these aren't a consideration on the flop). Maybe AJ and AT? KQ? Do you see him calling with KJ? KT? Aces worse than yours? I don't know the answers, but I think I've rephrased the question to better get at the central issue.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the stack sizes, I think he'll just call with some aces that are beating me, as well as possibly some that I beat. I think he may also call with some PP, and re-raise with some, depending on how often he thinks I'm just stealing here. If he decides I'm stealing, I think he might call with some two-broadway hands, and possibly other suited and/or connected cards (though the latter possibility is awfully loose for my impression of him).

[pokerlaw]

i like to check here and let the BB act first on the turn. no need to bet away my chip lead just yet - i want to show this down pretty cheap.

[Hendricks433]

I dont think you can really bet an amount to represent a Q. I think I check behind cause Im not comfortable calling a check raise with this hand. What hand are you afraid to give free cards to other than the flush draw? I think betting puts yourself in a tough situation.

[Slim Pickens]

Eh... Do you think he called preflop because he has a queen? I think you just folded a chop.

EDIT: but yeah, check behind on that flop. No need to give him a chance to put you on a tough decision.

[ QUOTE ]
Eh... Do you think he called preflop because he has a queen? I think you just folded a chop.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's only a chop if he's holding A9, until/unless we see the next two cards.

FWIW:

If we put villain's range as any ace, Hero's 23% to win, villain's 21%, and thery're 56% to chop. If villain's range is an ace that's currently behind, he's 1% to win, with 62% to chop (numbers obviously change based on how bad villain's ace is). If villain's range is the same or a better ace, Hero is 1% to win, and they chop 42%.