Posting in the cutoff

[mperich]

-EV or no? How -EV? The consensus for full ring on this forum seems to be CO is best, but obviously posting 3-4 spots earlier changes it a bit. Discuss

-Mike

[duk]

I think you're fine posting in the CO. If your normal positional stats look something like (11, 9, 7, 5, -15, -5) BB/100 for (button, CO, ..., BB, SB) then you should post in the CO as long as you expect to lose less than 12 BB/100 there. Seems like a reasonable expectation to me.

Of course, if you expect to win less, you might be better off waiting. Someone should please correct me if any of my assumptions seem unreasonable.

[Rubeskies]

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-EV

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[Grisgra]

I vote -EV. As Kiddo was saying, this seems like a cheap way to get people to think you're a dolt, but I don't know that anyone keeps that in mind or remembers it an orbit from then. In and of itself, it's -EV, and I don't think the table image impact makes it +EV. Could be wrong, though.

[cjx]

I usually make a quick note on people who post utg/utg+1 in a 6 or less handed game.

Although it will become readily apparent if they're seeing every flop or not and that's primarily what that sort of posting indicates.

I also like to note if they post and fold to a preflop raise.

cjx

[J.R.]

Paying the blinds is payment for the right to be able to play x hands (an orbit), while posting in the CO is payment for the right to play 3 hands from the CO, hijack, and them utg or 3 off the button in a 6 handed game.

Paying $5 to play 3 hands (without the right to play from the best position) is not as profitable as paying $7 to play 6 hands, one of which is from the best position.

But since its not an either or approach, you shouldn't merely chose the most profitable option, as there is a opportunity cost of waiting for the BB; the ev of paying $5 to play the CO, Hijack and UTG.

[ QUOTE ]
If your normal positional stats look something like (11, 9, 7, 5, -15, -5) BB/100 for (button, CO, ..., BB, SB) then you should post in the CO as long as you expect to lose less than 12 BB/100 there. Seems like a reasonable expectation to me.

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Interesting, not sure if its what you are getting at but waiting for the BB has an opportunity cost, the expected value of posting in the CO and playing the hijack and UTG, as if you elect to wait for the BB you sit out for three hands and forgo that expectation, be it positive or negative.

If your expectation from the CO, hijack and UTG is greater than the $5 you must pay to play these three hands, you should post. However, posting in the CO has to be -ev (much like you lose money overall form the BB). How much your loss form the CO would be I dunno for sure, but its likely less than from the BB because of your positional advantage, so does your positional earn from the hijack and utg exceed your positional loss from posting in the CO?

For example, if utg and the hijack are worth .14 BB/100 combined (seems plausible for a good player), and posting in the CO only costs you -.12 BB/100 (including posted blinds), you should post, as the overall earn from posting is .02.

As the loss from the BB should be higher than the loss from posting in the CO and many good players can show a loss of around -.15 BB/100 from the BB, a loss form posting in the CO may be as low as -.1 or less (especially given the steal equity you have as you should be raising any 2 if folded to your post) posting in the CO could be (probably is?) the more profitable move for an good player, not even considering any metagame/image benefit posting might impart (assuming a loose/reckless/fishy image is desirable.

So a good player should post.

Hmmm.. what am I missing/overlooking?

[NotReady]

Mathematically, you should post in the first position that, when added to the profits in the remaining positions before the BB, is equal to or higher than your BB results. However, it might be +EV to post UTG, even though slightly -EV, if it will help your table image.

Say you make .13 BB/hand in MP, .10 UTG and -.15 BB. Seems +EV to post MP. But UTG is only -.05(it might not be quite that bad because position is slightly better than BB) so if posting there will help your image, it might be worth it.

This is the first time I've considered this, I've been posting in CO only, but might rethink my approach.