Flop top set in a huge multi-way pot. When do I hit the brakes?

paperboyNC · #1 06-27-2005, 05:20 PM

I just sat down at the table and posted. Only read is the average pot is 8BB.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, Hero (poster) raises, MP3 3-bets, 4 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero caps, MP3 calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (17.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, MP3 calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero caps, MP3 calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (14.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises, UTG+1 calls, Hero 3-bets, MP3 caps, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

River: (26.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises, UTG+1 calls, Hero ?

What am I up against? 

- Does either player have the spade flush?
- Did the ace give MP3 a bigger set?
- The river seems to be a blank

Should I raise?

The most I can lose by raising is 2BB. If I have the best hand I win 4BB. Am I beat more than a third of the time here?

SeaEagle · #2 06-27-2005, 05:35 PM

FWIW, I'm not a fan of your PF cap. But I know there's mixed opinions here on that.

Do you have any reads at all? I'm pretty sure you're ahead of UTG+1 since his play is completely consistent with a set. But I can't, for the life of me, figure out what MP3 has. Did he 3-bet PF with 2 spades less than an A? Could he really be playing a set so strong with a flush on board?

In any case, I can't put MP3 on a hand you beat. I'd have quit betting/raising well before you did and certainly wouldn't 3-bet the river.

nolanfan34 · #3 06-27-2005, 05:36 PM

I think you played this OK.

On the flop, well played. MP3's cold calls would make me wonder what's up for sure. If UTG+1 is anything reasonable at all, I'd have to think that 88 and 55 are likely possibilities, based on the PF limp, and cold-call of the raise.

On the turn, when MP3 wakes up, you have a tougher decision. Hard to tell whether he could really be holding AA, KQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], or just something like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Something smells fishy though, and part of me would want to call the turn raise, and then bet/call the river.

As it played out, the way MP3 woke up on the turn, I just don't think another raise makes sense. I'd probably just call.

stillbr · #4 06-27-2005, 05:43 PM

geeze... KQs is the only thing that makes sense for MP3 by the way he played the whole hand. I guess a slight chance of AA for him aswell--although he played the flop pretty weird if he had that.

Looks like UTG=1 is a bad player with a 10 or maybe hit a set of 5's or 8's.

I play the hand the exact same way...and call the river bet hoping MP3 has somthing stupid

smartalecc5 · #5 06-27-2005, 06:06 PM

what about 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]? That plays pretty much the same as KQs

imported_leader · #6 06-27-2005, 06:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
what about 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]? That plays pretty much the same as KQs

[/ QUOTE ]

People comonly 3-bet preflop with 67s?

Moneyline · #7 06-27-2005, 06:27 PM

Pre Flop: I think you are better off calling the 3bet instead of capping it.

Flop: I like the raise. Even though the bet is coming from your right the pot is so big I don't think raising will drive many people out.

Turn: I like betting out, but I'd slow down once raised. Given the action, this player looks like he caught a flush. By reraising you could be putting in a lot of chips when you are behind, and you may knock out UTG+1 who is almost drawing dead.

River: I would check/call.

I think you are a dog to win this pot, but folding is clearly out of the question considering all your outs and the huge size of the pot. My guess is that one of your opponents has a flush.

paperboyNC · #8 06-27-2005, 07:26 PM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, Hero (poster) raises, MP3 3-bets, 4 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero caps, MP3 calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (17.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, MP3 calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero caps, MP3 calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (14.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises, UTG+1 calls, Hero 3-bets, MP3 caps, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

River: (26.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 32.75 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG+1 has 8d 8s (three of a kind, eights).
Hero has Tc Th (three of a kind, tens).
MP3 has Ah Qc (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Hero wins 32.75 BB.

nolanfan34 · #9 06-27-2005, 07:30 PM

Nice hand, and you can make a nice note on MP3. Without reads though, I still think the river is a call, like you did.

Klepton · #10 06-27-2005, 07:43 PM

before you put the results, i was going to tell you that you should just call on the river.

if UTG did not call, it looked to me like MP3 was an idiot, and i would have told you to 3-bet.