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#1
10-31-2005, 02:45 AM
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Phantom Out
UTG in this hand is pretty tight. 14/8/1.7. Have played a decent amount of hands with him (so much so I am not going to mention level or site.. possible 2+2 or at least a bonus whore). Does not get out of line, and seems to exercise appropriate aggression. The tight passive stats could be a byproduct of the tight passive nature of this particular game. So think maybe a bit too stright forward but thinking.
PF: UTG Villian limps, very loose passive Hi-jack calls, I raise with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] from the CO, Average BB calls, UTG calls, Hi-jack calls. Flop: (4-players) (8.6SB) 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Checked to me I bet, BB folds, UTG raises, Hi-jack folds, I call Turn: (2-players) (6bb) K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG bets, I raise Obviously no more bets are leaving my stack. 
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#2
10-31-2005, 03:25 AM
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Re: Phantom Out
What does a 14/8 player limp with UTG? Range is likely a decent A (AJ, or good Axs), KQ, good suited broadway or a mid pocket pair. Mid pair seems likely after the flop c/r (doesnt sound like the shot taking type).
I think there is a decent chance 14/8 ABC player lets go of that pair when you (assuming tight image) represent the K on the turn. Certainly if the turn was an A, less likely if turn was a Q,J, or T. Even if he doesnt lay it down you likely have 6 outs and a free showdown.
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#3
10-31-2005, 04:20 AM
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Re: Phantom Out
I think that, against the right opponent, this is a good play. (And against the right opponent, you could represent an overpair with a flop 3-bet or turn raise and make this bluff even if a king didn't fall.)
Of course, if he knows you know he might lay down a pocket pair in this spot, then that might give him reason to call down. He also might tell himself that if you actually had a king, you'd just call. Maybe he'll wonder if you turned a flush draw. Anyway, the more he's playing his standard lines, the more inclined I suspect he'll be to fold. It's possible I should make plays like this more often than I do. The problem is (for me) that since many TAGs don't take bet-fold lines as often as 2+2ers and I'm usually more focused on the looser spots at the table, I don't trust my read on the TAG enough.
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#4
10-31-2005, 04:59 AM
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Re: Phantom Out
if this is like 5/10 or 10/20 i'd say it's a great play. against any tight, thinking player who wont call down with AQ, TT, 99 etc it's a great play. against a random player with no stats i'd say it's a waste.
did it work?
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