At what point do I know if I'm any good? and other questions...

[primetimenole]

Ok, have been playing online for a little while now, probably about 9 months or so. I started out playing limit HE exclusively but after a while I 1) found it boring and 2) realized I didn't have the required patience for the game. I'm a gambler at heart and I just didnt have it in me to wait around for the great starting hands. I found myself moving into 6-max games that I was not prepared for just to play more hands. Anyways, I think I may have found a game online that suits my needs to play a bunch of hands and has been profitable (so far). They are heads-up NL sit n go's. I have been playing these on BoDog for a few weeks now and have been fairly successful, atleast I think I have based on not knowing anything about playing heads-up except that you need to be super agressive. My record is the following:

54-39 overall (58% win rate)

$10 buy in: 25-16 (61%)
$20 buy in: 17-14 (55%)
$30 buy in: 3-3 (50%)
$50 buy in: 9-6 (60%)

So I have the following questions, I'll go ahead and just list them because I have quite a few:

1) At what point can I consider this not a fluke and honestly tell myself that if I continue playing these that I will make money in the long run?
2) What is a sustainable win rate?
3) I have mostly been playing the $10 and $20 buy ins and based of my record have been much more successful at the $10 level. Should I stick to the $10 level for now and if so at what point do I move up?
4) Are there any books I can read about heads-up play? (right now, the only poker books I have are SSHE and King Yao's)
5) I looked through the archives and couldn't find much about the HU SnG's, can anyone point me in the right direction as far as discussions on the game or information about how to play these?

Any help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks and take care,

PTN [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Bodog.....hmmmmmm....what's your screen name....ha ha ha.
Be careful, there are HU specialists out there. I play NL cash games because I love to stack guys. I too have experimented with HU sit and goes, six and ten player sit and goes, cash games, shorthanded, etc. I can play a variety, I prefer full ring games or shorthanded cash games, I feel I profit the most in doing so. Find your niche. Although, I believe there are guys playing heads up with a higher winrate than 58%.

[primetimenole]

You wouldnt be able to guess my screenname from my handle here so dont try....lol. Anyways, I dont doubt that there are guys with higher winrates than 58%, obviously I'm looking to improve that as well but I think its a decent number for roughly my first 100 matches. Also, I would doubt that if there are HU specialists that they would waste their time at the $10 level. Who knows though....

I do know of one person who plays on UB who has a very very good track record playing heads up. I would be sure it's over 65%. He does play the lower amounts as playing $100 HU is not always available. At least, that's what he told me. I did alright myself playing HU and that was before I knew what I was doing. I haven't played HU SNGs lately, but I'm sure I would do just fine.

[PocketPaul]

Just wondering, how long does an average HU NL sit n go take to complete?

[cognito20]

Harrington's HOH2 has some good advice on starting hands for NL headsup play, including a working default strategy you can use that'll keep you above water, and such for headsup play, but while it's one of the better parts of the book it doesn't deal as much with postflop play, which is very opponent-dependent anyway so that's understandable. Although his analysis of the Ivey-D'Agostino headsup battle at the Turning Stone tournament last year is very insightful and well worth the read.

I only play Stars HU SNGs every now and then as an occasional break from 6-max and stud/8 ring game play. I consider heads-up no-limit sit and gos to be the poker equivalent of my Frank Zappa albums: I love them, but I'll play them almost exclusively for 2 or 3 days and then go back to my regular games, just to keep myself fresh. In other words, I take them in limited, but intense, doses. The variance, as you might imagine, can be rather high....although I am (slightly) overall profitable in these games (.551 on Stars $5 and $10 level, in 376 matches), I once lost 10 of them in a row and had a 24-match sample in which I went 3-21. I also once won 11 in a row, and 18 of 20. Make sure you have the bankroll to withstand the swings.

What that bankroll would be, I don't know. I'm sure there's a mathematical way to figure it out, probably in Mason's book "Gambling Theory and Other Topics", but since this is not my regular game and I play them more as a break than anything else I haven't bothered. That book is highly recommended for any bankroll questions you might have, actually.

--Scott

Depends on how fast the blinds go up and how fast you're able to trap your opponent and the type of opponent. Usually about 15-30 minutes. If you're opponent is super-aggressive and you get dealt a monster early, in can be done in five-10 hands since they can over-commit themselves quickly.

That's precisely the problem with them. For example, on UB at $10 HU SNG costs you $11. If you win one then lose one, you're now down $2, so, you have to do much better than break even to show a profit.

[cognito20]

[ QUOTE ]
That's precisely the problem with them. For example, on UB at $10 HU SNG costs you $11. If you win one then lose one, you're now down $2, so, you have to do much better than break even to show a profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. The vig causes a .500 player to be a loser. On Stars, where I play, the breakeven point is .525. At .551, I'm profitable, but slightly....which matches my assessment of my headsup skill level; good, but not great. Again, I only play them as a break from my regular grind, I'm not ever planning to specialize in them. A decent, if maybe flawed, way to think of it is to compare your winning percentage to a major league baseball team. .550 is good, .600 is great, and .700 is 1927 Yankees. I would doubt that anything above .700 would be sustainable for any long period, and even that would be iffy for all but the greatest players. Just a guess though.

--Scott