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#21
11-07-2005, 03:20 PM
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Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
[ QUOTE ]
Indy allowing 4.5 yds/rush. While their pass D is clearly elite, keep in mind almost no team has been able to run to stay in the game against Indy so has turned immeidately to the pass. [/ QUOTE ] Playing this prop tonight, Corey Dillon total rushing yards under 80.5 He's not %100 and hopefully the "trend" will continue and the Pats will have to turn to Brady to keep em in the game. 
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#22
11-07-2005, 03:27 PM
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Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Indy allowing 4.5 yds/rush. While their pass D is clearly elite, keep in mind almost no team has been able to run to stay in the game against Indy so has turned immeidately to the pass. [/ QUOTE ] Playing this prop tonight, Corey Dillon total rushing yards under 80.5 He's not %100 and hopefully the "trend" will continue and the Pats will have to turn to Brady to keep em in the game. [/ QUOTE ] If the Colts go up early, this is a fantastic bet. However, Dillon has been held out of practices and even games, to an extent, to be ready to play tonight. If the Pats hold a lead or keep it close throughout, I expect Corey to get 81+. I might hedge Pats ML with Corey minus 80.5.
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#24
11-07-2005, 04:55 PM
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Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
[ QUOTE ]
Okay I got 2 units on Indy -3 and over 46. The line is now -4.5 and 49. Should I middle this? Or should I put more units on Indy before the line moves more. [/ QUOTE ] There is no value in trying to middle the 4. Especially if you laid -110 on the 3 side. And you definitely don't want to bet more IND at -4.5. That is a big 1.5 point difference. craig
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#25
11-07-2005, 04:58 PM
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Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
[ QUOTE ]
Okay I got 2 units on Indy -3 and over 46. The line is now -4.5 and 49. Should I middle this? Or should I put more units on Indy before the line moves more. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah...Just have a beer and watch the game...and enjoy a whipping!
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#26
11-07-2005, 05:24 PM
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Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Okay I got 2 units on Indy -3 and over 46. The line is now -4.5 and 49. Should I middle this? Or should I put more units on Indy before the line moves more. [/ QUOTE ] There is no value in trying to middle the 4. Especially if you laid -110 on the 3 side. And you definitely don't want to bet more IND at -4.5. That is a big 1.5 point difference. craig [/ QUOTE ] Technically it's a soft middle because you'll push one side while winning the other if the game lands on 3. Personally I would do it but that's because I like the Pats.
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#27
11-07-2005, 06:14 PM
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Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Okay I got 2 units on Indy -3 and over 46. The line is now -4.5 and 49. Should I middle this? Or should I put more units on Indy before the line moves more. [/ QUOTE ] There is no value in trying to middle the 4. Especially if you laid -110 on the 3 side. And you definitely don't want to bet more IND at -4.5. That is a big 1.5 point difference. craig [/ QUOTE ] Technically it's a soft middle because you'll push one side while winning the other if the game lands on 3. Personally I would do it but that's because I like the Pats. [/ QUOTE ] If he is laying -110 though there can't be very much value there. craig
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#28
11-07-2005, 06:20 PM
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Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Okay I got 2 units on Indy -3 and over 46. The line is now -4.5 and 49. Should I middle this? Or should I put more units on Indy before the line moves more. [/ QUOTE ] There is no value in trying to middle the 4. Especially if you laid -110 on the 3 side. And you definitely don't want to bet more IND at -4.5. That is a big 1.5 point difference. craig [/ QUOTE ] Technically it's a soft middle because you'll push one side while winning the other if the game lands on 3. Personally I would do it but that's because I like the Pats. [/ QUOTE ] If he is laying -110 though there can't be very much value there. craig [/ QUOTE ] You can get Pats +3.5 +115/120 on Pinny/Matchbook...harmless +EV flier on a nice number.
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#29
11-07-2005, 07:43 PM
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Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
someone do this math quickly please, im cooking dinner and dont have time to invest [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
i want to 'outside' branch's recieving yardage Under 66.5 +146 Over 75.5 -125 If his recieving yardage is 67-75 yards I lose two units, otherwise I gain +0.21.. I know these are bad plays but I really want to try one. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] Unit will be small I promise Anyways, where should I 'outside' this.. even money leaning under and over as I have no favorite. thanks! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#30
11-07-2005, 08:06 PM
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Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
[ QUOTE ]
someone do this math quickly please, im cooking dinner and dont have time to invest [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] i want to 'outside' branch's recieving yardage Under 66.5 +146 Over 75.5 -125 If his recieving yardage is 67-75 yards I lose two units, otherwise I gain +0.21.. I know these are bad plays but I really want to try one. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] Unit will be small I promise Anyways, where should I 'outside' this.. even money leaning under and over as I have no favorite. thanks! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] This is REALLY a lousy bet. The math points towards a risk of $237 to win a little over $9. i.e: Bet $137 on over 75.5 Bet $100 on under 66.5 If it is under 66.5, you win $9. If it is over 75.5, you win $9.60. 67-75, you lose $237. Stay far far away.
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