The lottery. The odds.

[squeek12]

My friend and I were discussing this one time when the powerball got tremendously large. He claimed that the prize had gotten so big that betting $1 to win that overinflated pot was actually +EV. We did a little research b/c we were bored and it seemed to check out.

We then decided that we could no longer claim that we were smart gamblers if we didn't buy a ticket, so we did. And of course we both lost.

[Felipe]

Ya should have bought 1000 tickets! And ya. i am a great thinker. And I like spreading the news to all 'corners' of the globe! You're bright!

[Felipe]

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I'm posting this at other forums too.

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THANK GOD. I was worried only OOT would experience the great thinker that is known as Felipe, but don't stop here spread your word until it reaches the outer corners of the world. Not doing so would be a great disservice to mankind.

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Do I know you, skanky?

[rwesty]

Powerball becomes +EV when the jackpot is around $150,000,000.

[Ulysses]

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He claimed that the prize had gotten so big that betting $1 to win that overinflated pot was actually +EV. We did a little research b/c we were bored and it seemed to check out.

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Other poster: [ QUOTE ]

Powerball becomes +EV when the jackpot is around $150,000,000.

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Please elaborate.

[mostsmooth]

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I know the odds are against winning. For each dollar one invests, mathematically and theoretically speaking, one would expect to win, say, 97cents.

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I'm pretty sure it's closer to 50 cents.

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It really depends on the size of the jackpot doesn't it?

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and how many tickets you buy

[JoshuaD]

You can't look at winning the lottery just in terms of EV. The jackpot has life-changing value, which could make it worth playing.

Someone with 100 million dollars shouldn't be playing the lottery, he wins another few million and he's gonna be the same dude when he wakes up. On the other hand, a guy who makes 30k a year won't really miss that buck or two a week, but if he happens to get lucky, his entire life will change.

[squeek12]

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He claimed that the prize had gotten so big that betting $1 to win that overinflated pot was actually +EV. We did a little research b/c we were bored and it seemed to check out.

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Other poster: [ QUOTE ]

Powerball becomes +EV when the jackpot is around $150,000,000.

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Please elaborate.

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I don't remember the exact numbers the powerball uses, but I think it's 6 balls and the balls are numbered up to let's say 50 to make the math easy. That means that you have a 1/50 shot on each ball, or to use poker terms "street."

I think the math would go like this:

(1/50)^6= .000000000064
---This is your chance of winning given my parameters.

With that number, I think you can conclude that the powerball jackpot would have to be like 1.64 billion to make it worth it. But like I said, I'm not sure about the exact parameters of the powerball.

Oh, and it's possible that I am way out of line here. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Edit: I just read that the non-powerball balls can be in any order, I think that make a big difference, but I don't know how to express it in math, as I am mathematically challenged. I knew the number I came up with had to be wayyyy too high.

[pryor15]

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We then decided that we could no longer claim that we were smart gamblers if we didn't buy a ticket, so we did. And of course we both lost.

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don't be so results oriented. just think of all the Sklansky $$ you made.

[xorbie]

So that makes it (1/50)^6*120. So the Jackpot would have to be ~ $150,000,000.