A few 5 Card Draw Questions

[HizayGizirlz]

Hi, i have just recently started playing low-limit draw at one of my sports betting sites, and have a couple of questions. The site i play at is max 5-handed.

1. A situation came up where i was in the BB and all four of my opponents limped in. i had QQxxx w/ four hearts. Do i draw three here in hopes of improving the queens or do i take the 1 card to the flush getting 5-0 or 4-1 on my call i dont know how u look at the situation from the BB.

2. Another BB situation in which i had KKxxx, button limps and SB completes, should i raise here? generally i do, but the button is the type of player who limpes w/ all his hands Pre-draw, big pairs, two pair trips etc, the type of player i never call w/out a huge hand post draw if he bets b/c he always shows Aces-up or better. i guess my question is given his post draw betting requirments, would check folding if i don't improve my kings be my best play?

3. In General what are the swings and BB/100 expectations of playing this game online regularly (fairly often), i read in aonther post the swings aren't as big as hold'em b/c there is less betting rounds, is this the case? As far as the BB/100 can you expect in the area of 3.5/4/100 BB, b/c your opponents are given more of an opportunity to make mistakes, bad draws w/ low pairs, and improper odds on st8's and flushes

Thanks in advance for the advice.

[Moneyline]

1) This is a close decision, IMO. I would usually draw 3, but I think this is a case where you, or someone on this board (hint, hint [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ) would have to figure out the math to make the correct play. A case where I would draw to the flush would be if a couple tight players had limped, meaning I'd probably need a bigger hand after the draw to win the pot.

2) I would generally raise here before the draw, but it would depend on how tight the button is. If the button is ultra-passive like you say, but only plays solid hands like JJ or better, then I would probably check. However, if this player will limp with small pairs and draws then this is an easy raise. After the draw, you have an easy check/fold if you know your opponent will only bet a big hand after the draw. Just make sure your opponent is as big a rock as you think he is, or he'll start picking on you with bluffs. Also, if the SB is a calling station, seriously consider value betting in this spot as long as the button isn't ultra tight.

3) The swings are lower. Against poor players I think you can win in 75%-80% of your sessions. Calculating BB/100 would be rather time-consuming because there is no software (that I know of) that would make those calculations for you. Also, BB/100 wouldn't be a very effective means of comparison between a game like hold 'em for determining your overall earn. This is because you get a lot more hands in per hour playing draw than you do playing even 6 max hold 'em. BB/hour is a more effective measurement IMO, and I don't think 3 BB/hour online is unreasonable for a good player against poor oposition.

[timprov]

[ QUOTE ]
1) This is a close decision, IMO. I would usually draw 3, but I think this is a case where you, or someone on this board (hint, hint [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ) would have to figure out the math to make the correct play. A case where I would draw to the flush would be if a couple tight players had limped, meaning I'd probably need a bigger hand after the draw to win the pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not going to do out the math specifically, but the ability to value-bet after the draw strongly suggests drawing to the flush, presuming they'll pay you off when you hit it. If you keep the queens you're more likely to be the one paying off in hopes your 2 pair is good.

When making decisions in small pots, it's a good idea to concentrate on winning postdraw bets. You probably have a better chance of winning the pot with the QQ, but will win less money.

[BadPenguin]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm not going to do out the math specifically, but the ability to value-bet after the draw strongly suggests drawing to the flush, presuming they'll pay you off when you hit it. If you keep the queens you're more likely to be the one paying off in hopes your 2 pair is good.

When making decisions in small pots, it's a good idea to concentrate on winning postdraw bets. You probably have a better chance of winning the pot with the QQ, but will win less money.

[/ QUOTE ]

I ran this through a Java draw simulator that I've been working on to see how the numbers would turn out. Since you have to make some kind of estimate for what the limpers have I put the first two on anything from a draw (flush or open-end straight) to a pair of kings, the button on a draw to a pair of aces, and the SB on a draw to eights-up. Giving you QQT62 with four hearts gives the following when drawing three to the queens, where the first percentage after each rank of hand is how often you'll end up with that hand, and the second what percent of those you'll win:

Player selection: Qd Qh 6h(-) Th(-) 2h(-)
Player wins = 28.7045 %
Details:
a pair of queens: 70.22%, 14.21% wins
two pair, queens-up: 12.92%, 43.29% wins
Other two pair: 3.285%, 53.50% wins
three-of-a-kind, queens: 12.15%, 82.17% wins
full house: 1.097%, 97.49% wins
four-of-a-kind: 0.314%, 99.68% wins

Drawing to the flush gives:

Player selection: Qd(-) Qh 6h Th 2h
Player wins = 19.2565 %
Player details:
high card queen: 43.47%, 0.0% wins
high card king: 6.351%, 0.0% wins
high card ace: 7.086%, 0.0% wins
a pair of deuces: 6.486%, 0.015% wins
a pair of sixes: 6.270%, 0.606% wins
a pair of tens: 6.441%, 7.125% wins
a pair of queens: 4.511%, 14.33% wins
queen-high flush: 14.82%, 93.19% wins
king-high flush: 2.195%, 94.12% wins
ace-high flush: 2.358%, 94.67% wins

So as timprov says, your chances of winning are better by keeping the queens, but your ability to value bet with some confidence if you improve is much better with the flush. Your most likely improvement with the queens is to 2-pair, which will be the best hand just less than half the time.

Giving you a higher flush draw (change the deuce for an ace) actually increases your chances of winning slightly whichever way you draw, but helps the flush a little more. (Your chance of pairing the ace, plus less chance - albeit small to begin with - of being beaten by a better flush.)

This depends heavily on what you think your opponents might have. The better hands you put them on the more inclined you should be to draw to the flush, obviously.

[HizayGizirlz]

Thanks to everyone for their advice so far its been helpful. The kicker was i busted my QQ to draw 1 and have a flush i could bet for value w/ confidence as a few people have stated so far, and the one card i draw was a Q, which kind of sucked especailly when the winning hand was JJJxx and he bet out.