A difficult 10/20 AA hand

[AZK]

10/20, effective stack 2k, 6max, you just sat down.

Tough player opens UTG, 2+2er calls, you raise pot from BB with AA, both call, pot is 1050

Flop J98 all clubs

You check (I think this is correct a very large percentage of the time, but I'd like to hear legit well thoughtout arguments if anyone disagrees), tough player bets pot, 2+2er folds, action?

Probable hand range for tough player is AA-88. With most likely a club draw, i.e. KcKx. Give it 70% he has a pair+club, and 30% he has a set. AcKc is possible but I don't think it would be played so quick (but I have no clue, just from what I would think).

Move in or fold?

My primary thought was the amount of money already in the pot.

~Rationale for flop cehck: very easy to get stolen from, very easy to steal on turn if flop goes check check check.

Before anyone asks he does not have the Ac

[AZK]

would this be posted if he did?

[edge]

With the stacks this shallow, there's no folding equity with a push (it would be like 300 more into a pot of 3000 or whatever). I don't think you can really mess around in this spot, but I think tough player is going to bet pot with any holding after you check to him. The problem is that most holdings a good player would open UTG and call a reraise with are either crushing you or have a good redraw. I guess you have to fold. This flop blows, and there's no room to maneuver with the stack sizes.

[Yeti]

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I think tough player is going to bet pot with any holding after you check to him.

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Not even remotely true, especially with 2+2er behind him.

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The problem is that most holdings a good player would open UTG and call a reraise with are either crushing you or have a good redraw. I guess you have to fold.

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You got this right though.

[flawless_victory]

id let it go.

[foldem]

If he won't bet this flop without a set, TcTx or a pair with a big club it adds up to a fold IMO.

[DyessMan89]

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id let it go.

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[mikech]

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Give it 70% he has a pair+club, and 30% he has a set. AcKc is possible but I don't think it would be played so quick (but I have no clue, just from what I would think).

Move in or fold?

My primary thought was the amount of money already in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
i did a quick ev calculation using your read of 70% pair+club, 30% set and found, somewhat surprisingly, that pushing would actually be +ev by about $130.

however, i just plugged in a flat 55% equity vs pair+club and 8% vs set in that calculation. i didn't assign percentages to how often you might be up against AcAx (you're drawing dead to a chop, he's 36% to scoop), or QcQx/TcTx (pair+club+gutshot/pair+club+oesd, against which your equity drops to 48% and 40% respectively). and then there has to be some percentage of the time you're actually facing a flopped flush. these other scenarios probably make pushing -ev.