Downsing or just leveling out?

[QTip]

I've recently hit a downswing of 75BB over 1500 hands.

Here's my question. I was at 3.8 BB/100 for 3/6 over about 7K hands. I felt this was pretty high given my skill level...

I had 400BB to move to 5/10 and did so. The games I played at were very soft indeed; however, I've seen enough runner/runners to start a frickin NY city marathon, and my big pps are running at about -3.5BB each

So, over the last 2000 5/10 and 3/6 hands, I've lost 75BB; however, this puts my overall win rate for 3/6 and 5/10 at 2.5, which is they type of player I would say I am...

Could a swing like this just be something to level you off statistically, theoretically.....am I smoking weed or does this making any sense at all?

I do not think the 5/10 level has anything to do with my swing...the players have actually been worse at the tables I've been at than the 3/6 tables I played.

[DMBFan23]

my first ~750 3/6 hands: +123 BB
my next 1500 3/6 hands: -20 BB

for a still sweet winrate over a pretty meaningless sample.

the moral: I knew I wasnt a 23 BB/100 player, so I'm not really surprised it happened now as opposed to later [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Frequitude]

QTip, my guess would be that it is a downswing that has the effect of leveling your winrate out. How's that for an answer! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

But seriously, if -75 BB over 2000 hands moved your winrate from 3.8 to 2.5, you're definitely still in the very short term (no math, just seems like it). While you may actually be a 2.5 BB/100 player, I would still expect to see your winrate fluctuate quite a bit on either side of this until you get a couple ten thousand more hands under your belt!

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I've recently hit a downswing of 75BB over 1500 hands.

Here's my question. I was at 3.8 BB/100 for 3/6 over about 7K hands. I felt this was pretty high given my skill level...

I had 400BB to move to 5/10 and did so. The games I played at were very soft indeed; however, I've seen enough runner/runners to start a frickin NY city marathon, and my big pps are running at about -3.5BB each

So, over the last 2000 5/10 and 3/6 hands, I've lost 75BB; however, this puts my overall win rate for 3/6 and 5/10 at 2.5, which is they type of player I would say I am...

Could a swing like this just be something to level you off statistically, theoretically.....am I smoking weed or does this making any sense at all?

I do not think the 5/10 level has anything to do with my swing...the players have actually been worse at the tables I've been at than the 3/6 tables I played.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this has got to be leveling off, but it is indeed a downswing. I think it is tough psychologically because of the past success you've had, at least it was for me. (I was +2.7bb/100 for my first 20K at 3/6 and then POP! Now through 33K at 3/6 my bb/100 is 1.03. Meh.) After reading what everyone had written in my whine thread, I've come to grips with (or at least tried to) the fact that I ran hot, and now I'm running cold, and eventually I'll run hot again. IMO the key is to soften the edges. Lose the least when you are losing and win the most when you are winning. The best way to do both of those is to play well, and you do. I am rambling.

[QTip]

Well, that's the thing.....the several tens of thousands of hands I do have under my belt (in PT - got it only a couple months ago) put my at about 2.8, and I always felt that was about right for my skill level coupled with my picky table selection criteria...

I didn't see why I would be better at a higher level.

The interesting thing is that this downswing has been mostly comprised of amazing suckouts...however, I was at 6BB/100 for about 4000 hands where I was running hot..so that's my thought process of leveling out.

Unfortunately for my BR, the vast majority of the -75BB swing happened at 5/10 [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]....back to 3/6 with my tight a$$

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Lose the least when you are losing

[/ QUOTE ]

I need to make a large post made up of my big pps that are getting hammered, and have you guys review them to see if I'm really losing the least I can. I'll have to do that tonight as my database is not here.

[sfer]

I read the first line and stopped. 75 BBs is nothing.

[QTip]

So I'm told. The chief just told me I'm a statistical freak. This is my worst downswing over at least 80K hands (conservative estimate).

However, sfer, I'm more interested in the conceptual thought I had not so much the size of the downswing.

[sfer]

Your results shouldn't mean-revert since each hand is independent of the prior hands.

[Frequitude]

I'm definitely not doubting your number of hands, I've been following the ridiculous number of your posts in the past couple months! I think I just misunderstood you. I didn't realize the winrate shift was over ýour entire 3/6 and 5/10 history.

Either way though, this is definitely just a minor blip along the way. It had such a magnified effect on your WR because of the higher limits.

The exact same thing happened to me when I tried to move up to 2/4 two weeks ago. Over 15000 hands at 1/2 I was running at 5BB/100. Then I got hit by a bus and was -125BB over 1200 hands at 2/4. That REALLY magnified the shift in my winrate. So many times I almost posted a thread saying "I'm good, what's wrong", but resisted the urge. I knew AA would eventually hold up again. I have since moved back down to 1/2 6max, am running normal again, and will take another stab when I hit 500BB for 2/4.