Was Villain Right?

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to accept that a sane opponent's 3-bets means *something*, even if it is only that he can beat A6o. Yes, you should peel the flop, but what the hell are you raising for? The pot is big enough and the flop sparse enough that your opponent will almost certainly make it to the river with even just unimproved overcards, and you're drawing to 7 or so outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree the flop raise was an error.

Call>Raise>Fold

[Victor]

you are taking a lot of heat on this one but the only mistake you made was on the flop. unfortunately that mistake was compounded since you had to call the turn. luckily you hit your card and made some cach on the hand then posted it so you wont make the same mistake again.

[Victor]

another thing: the turn call is pretty simple. hero is getting 7.5:1 immediate and 9.5:1 implied for the gutshot alone. throw in that his ace outs are good often enough since villain is marked with and overpair and this is an easy call.

[tansoku]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think a guy with these stats 3 bets 55 or 44. So we're only really bad against 88, TT, and AA.

AA, TT, 88 -- 12 combos (4 outs)

99, JJ, QQ, KK -- 24 combos (7 outs)

12 * 4 = 48
24 * 7 = 168
48 + 168 = 216
216 / (12 + 24) = 6 outs

We have on average close to 6 outs on the turn -- even more if SB might be going a little nuts with AK or AQ or something. Plus when we are behind a set, we usually collect 2 bets on the river when we hit. Even if you only get 1 bet on average against AA, the turn call has to be correct.

Folding the turn is an error.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very nice.
I can't remember seeing this technique to average outs before, maybe I did but it just didn't register...

[QTip]

Obviously villain lost the hand. He had 99 and left shortly thereafter.

[B Dids]

The preflop raise is fine (I wouldn't do it every or most times, but I'd do it some times depending on the lineup) if you're not going to spew postflop. You're spewing post flop though.

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The way to do this is to say againt TT-KK I have 7 outs. Against Big unpaired aces I have 7 outs because if I pair my kicker I'm good

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this leaves us in an interesting position if we hit an Ace, or particularly a 6, and are bet into.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are we really paying off the river with a 6?

[/ QUOTE ]

...

[ QUOTE ]
Villain may also have AK/AQ, I don't think we're giving these hands enough credit

[/ QUOTE ]

[Jeff W]

Bueno.

[luckyharr]

The preflop raise is standard 4 handed.

The turn call is not close given that six small bets went in on the flop. The villain was wrong. It's common that strange hands draw out in 6 max because of aggression bloating pots on the flop.

If you had just called the flop, the turn decision would have been close, but I think you would call getting 5.5-1 figuring you have about 6 outs on average and expecting to make around 1.5 BB depending on which of your outs hits on the river.

[TheDelChop]

haha...
I don't post often, but I'll respond to this one.

Villain in this hand was me, (btw i didn't and never would call you stupid, but I will confess to the "how did you even see the river" comment) and I can't see how Q-tip made any right plays in this hand expect for raising the nuts on the river.

When I 3-bet in the SB, he can't possibily be ahead PF with A-6o, and since his hand didn't improve on the flop he still can't be ahead. I can't possibly see the point in raising the flop, he is just putting in an extra BB when he is way behind.

Calling the turn against what he knew to be a 22/14/2.8 seems -EV to me too, since he can't even be sure that his A is good. I think we could say that his ace is good for maybe 2 outs. So he is calling a 7.5-1 when he is about an 8-1 dog. Where is the EV in this play? I don't get it.

FWIW, what do you think of my river play? Should I be c/c? I am damn sure I have the best hand on the turn when he just calls, and i can't put the PF raiser on a hand with a 6 except for 66 and I cna't see him getting to the river with 66. I am not sure whether or not I should pay him off on the river, I am inclined to say no.