$10+$1 Rebuy AK hand

[Lloyd]

You're not accounting for any possibility of a pure bluff and there is certainly some liklihood of that.

[kslghost]

Yes I understand that, but I'd put it at the very minimum, if even that (the Harrington 10%). However, I'd lean on the side of conservative because of the fact that I've already *assumed* that this guy would play a hand like KTs or KQo in this manner. If I really want to be tight and add the 10% bluff to it, I might have to say that I don't have a real read on him, so I might have to assume he's a bit tighter than to play KQo or KTs UTG limp. I might even say he won't play AK because he wouldn't limp-call with it, and therefore I'd skew the statistics even more towards folding (in fact it might be more correct to do that).

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Great first post.

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I would reraise him all-in.

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He pushed.

Yes but if you reraise with all your chips it looks more assertive and you still get your chips back.

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He's trying to steal.

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How do can you be so sure?

Gut feeling. And I guess trying to steal is the wrong word. He's trying to steal, but he still has a decent hand. He's a got a medium to top hand, and he's looking to win without a fight. He's hoping you don't call and he takes the pot, but he's also thinking he has a pretty good chance of winning (because the Ks were slowplayed) with his hand. He may have QQ or AJ.

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Also I would have bet 5xBB after the flop and found out what he had then.

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Say he calls. What does he have?

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That means he had something decent right after the flop. If he called then it probably means he had the AJ. If he had the QQ he would have raised thinking he had top pair. If he only called, then you would be in luck, because you'd see the K on the turn and be ready to fight some more knowing you probably had the best hand. Instead of just guessing on what he has at the river.

[kslghost]

He could also have a monster, like 22 55 or JJ. Calls are scary. AJ would likely not call in this situation. Neither would QQ. They should both raise, at least to find out where they are. A call indicates something along the lines of a set or a draw. Your king helps you not against any of these hands.

I think the most likeliest calling hands that are weaker are JT-JQ(s), a flush draw, or a sad hand like A5 or even A2. Anything else that calls on the flop is dangerous.

AND BESIDES, this is a sidenote to the real hand!

He should raise, yes, but I don't understand why everyone usually thinks that their villian is the perfect poker player. Also people tend to play tighter to their disadvantage in MTT.

Still though, the bet earlier in the hand would make you much more aware of your position with AK.

[kslghost]

I certainly agree pip. The only reason I would say that this villain here raises is because of the incredible agressiveness shown on the river. I see him to be agressive, not as passive as perhaps if he had just called on the river in our given post. (I'm using what very limited information we have).

[durron597]

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He should raise, yes, but I don't understand why everyone usually thinks that their villian is the perfect poker player. Also people tend to play tighter to their disadvantage in MTT.

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If this is true it makes it even MORE likely we should fold the river!

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He should raise, yes, but I don't understand why everyone usually thinks that their villian is the perfect poker player. Also people tend to play tighter to their disadvantage in MTT.

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If this is true it makes it even MORE likely we should fold the river!

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It's true but he is using the [fact that people play tighter] to take advantage of the hero... not the other way around like the hero should have done earlier in the hand!

But if I'm wrong go ahead and reveal!

[kslghost]

The chance that the villain is attempting to steal a very mediocre sized pot with this bet is not very high.

He is unlikely to be trying to take advantage of the tightness of another player on the river. If he was, he would have done it much much earlier.

[binions]

The problem with checking the flop and turn is that you have not defined your hand.

The guy could literally have anything. He may have interpreted your checking as weakness, as 2 scared Tens or Nines that will fold to a raise with 2 Kings on the board. He could make that bet on a scare board with a busted flush draw. Or he could have the nuts.

With so little information and only 12 possible hands ahead of you (3 ways to make 3 sets + 3 ways to make KJ -- discounting K5 and K2), there is no way I fold.