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#1
09-07-2005, 01:05 PM
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If you had $25k and needed $100k
A hypothetical question, although for a while, I was afraid it was real, so I had to put some serious thought into it....here's the scenario:
My brother was in a major car accident. He was 23, and had no insurance. My parents were able to contribute, but we were still about $100k short of what we needed to give him the proper care to save his life. I had $25k, and about three days to figure out a way to turn it into $100k. We really had no other options. If you had to take a shot like this, what would you do? Please forget for a moment that there are other options besides Vegas (we obviously figured out a way). I had to think about this a lot, and it still intrigues me from time to time. What casino game to you try...do you just go big early, or try to build? I leaned towards blackjack, as I know the game well...to the point of having learned to count cards, etc. My problem is that I am not a great card counter, and I'm not going for the long run here. This is all short term...high risk of ruin. What is the best approach? 
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#4
09-07-2005, 01:22 PM
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Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
Taking odds does not change the HA!!!
the HA is fixed and no matter how much odds you take it is still the same as it was before you took any odds!
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#5
09-07-2005, 01:30 PM
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Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
[ QUOTE ]
Taking odds does not change the HA!!! the HA is fixed and no matter how much odds you take it is still the same as it was before you took any odds! [/ QUOTE ] I suppose the wizard of odds is wrong then.
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#6
09-07-2005, 02:17 PM
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Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
I think what he means is, taking odds does not change the house advantage of the original Pass Line bet, which still remains at 1.41% no matter how much odds you place behind it.
the COMBINED house edge of the odds and pass line can be reduced by taking as much as possible, but the TOTAL EXPECTATION to the house remains the same since you have to risk a higher amount overall to lower that house edge in the first place. this is why you double down in blackjack according to basic strategy even when your chances of winning the hand are lowered. the house advantage increases but so does your expectation on that particular hand. however, in craps there is very little you can do (if anything) to alter the long-term expectation of the pass line bet. the main thing that odds do is increase volatility of outcome for both the player and the house. this is why the multipliers are capped even though mathematically it doesn't make a difference to either party.
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#8
09-07-2005, 05:43 PM
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Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
Aren't hospitals required to treat emergency cases, even if people can't pay? If I were in that situation, I'd get my treatment, then declare bankruptcy.
To quadruple up, you want to bet the lowest possible amount at the lowest possible house advantage. Specifically, you want to minimize Wager * HA. Ideally, you'd make a single $25,000 bet paying $100,000 at 3:1. Two consecutive 2:1 bets would be just as good. I'd go to the Four Queens and play blackjack switch for 1/5th of my stack per hand with a big strategy card. This is small enough that you can split and double as needed, but large enough that you won't spend a lot of time going up and down before busting out or reaching your target. This extra wagering increases HA. My intuition is that the extra wagering you would do playing bj switch would count for less than the higher HA at craps.
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#9
09-07-2005, 06:10 PM
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Re: If you had $25k and needed $100k
[ QUOTE ]
Aren't hospitals required to treat emergency cases, even if people can't pay? If I were in that situation, I'd get my treatment, then declare bankruptcy. To quadruple up, you want to bet the lowest possible amount at the lowest possible house advantage. Specifically, you want to minimize Wager * HA. Ideally, you'd make a single $25,000 bet paying $100,000 at 3:1. Two consecutive 2:1 bets would be just as good. I'd go to the Four Queens and play blackjack switch for 1/5th of my stack per hand with a big strategy card. This is small enough that you can split and double as needed, but large enough that you won't spend a lot of time going up and down before busting out or reaching your target. This extra wagering increases HA. My intuition is that the extra wagering you would do playing bj switch would count for less than the higher HA at craps. [/ QUOTE ] House edges for craps w/ full odds: 5X odds 0.326% 10X odds 0.184% 20X odds 0.099% 100X odds 0.021% House edge for blackjack varies, but I don't think you can find a game with much less than 1% house edge. This is excluding counting, of course.
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