Can This Be Right?

[DpR]

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Wow are you good! I had to have him read me all the river stats and you're correct (except that it's +75% of the time he doesn't fold OR CHECK the river).

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Not to be a nit, but him checking doesnt enter the calculation. AF is (Bet + Raise)/Call. So when he checks the river the AF doesnt change (i.e. a check-call adds 1 to the denominator of the AF ratio and a check-raise adds 1 to the numerator)

[obi---one]

If people are paying attention, his folding will be taken advantage of. If people are playing 10 tables and just playing their cards, his aggression factors should deter them for the most part.

[Lestat]

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If people are paying attention, his folding will be taken advantage of. If people are playing 10 tables and just playing their cards, his aggression factors should deter them for the most part.

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But what we've learned is that this stat is very deceiving and he really isn't folding too much at all. Out of 100 instances, he is seeing a showdown well over 75% of the time.

[Mempho]

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If people are paying attention, his folding will be taken advantage of. If people are playing 10 tables and just playing their cards, his aggression factors should deter them for the most part.

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But what we've learned is that this stat is very deceiving and he really isn't folding too much at all. Out of 100 instances, he is seeing a showdown well over 75% of the time.

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Yes, because his turn aggression is causing free showdowns for him in position if he wants it, many people will just check-call any decent holding (therefore never trying to bet it themselves) because they fear a raise. Therefore, the river is probably not bet all that often "by the opponent" and when someone does bet, it is probably an extreme situation than when a "normal" player gets bet into on the river.

Out of curiousity, if one gets c/r or raised on the river, and they fold, does this count as a "fold to river bet" or would these be a "fold to river raise" situation?

[Lestat]

"Out of curiousity, if one gets c/r or raised on the river, and they fold, does this count as a "fold to river bet" or would these be a "fold to river raise" situation? "

I believe (although I am not 100% sure), this would count as a "fold to river bet". I'm sure someone else could provide a definite answer.

[phish]

All these stats have got my head spinning. I use pokertracker, but mainly for the hand playback feature and just to look at very high level stats. All these w$sd, etc stats, I don't quite know how to interpret or compare.

In fact, I no longer even boot up PokerAces HUD when I play since I find the statistics more distracting than helpful. Anyone else feel the same? Tho I do miss being able to see my opponent's hand without looking at 'instant hand history'.

[LearnedfromTV]

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Fold:

pf - 79.99
flop - 17.24
turn - 13.10
river - 13.57


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This doesn't seem unreasonable. He folds to a bet on the river 52% of the time, but most of the time he is putting in a bet or the hand is checked down, so the total amount of folds he makes on the river is just 14%. I would not try to push a player with these stats off a hand... but maybe I should take a closer look at how I set up my stat display, since this guy apparently would fold 50% of the time to a river donk bet.

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Not necessarily. I think the point is that he is playing the turn such that he rarely gets bet into the times he is planning to call. That is, he is so aggressive with his showdown hands on the turn that he usually gets to bet them or check them on the river, and rarely gets to call with them. This doesn't mean he'll fold when he shouldn't, just that his turn play sets things up so that he doesn't get the chance to call when he should. If that's true, there's no way to take advantage by betting into him. His stats reflect that his opponents don't bet the river enough, not that he doesn't call enough.

[Lestat]

I think you're 100% right. But I also think Ironfly was saying pretty much the same thing. That is, he needs to adjust the way he looks at his stats because it would APPEAR that donking the river would be a good play to make against him, when in fact, it would probably be a mistake.

What I learned from this thread is that it's more important to look at the "folds river %" than the "fold to a river bet" percentage.

[LearnedfromTV]

Ok. I read Ironfly as saying the reverse (that he looks at folds-on-river but thinks he is missing an opportunity that he would see if he looks at fold-to-bet-on-river). No matter.

Good thread. I don't even play much limit but I love this forum for its theory threads.

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His stats reflect that his opponents don't bet the river enough, not that he doesn't call enough.

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Good point. You did interpret my statement correctly, I was thinking of donking this guy to "take advantage" of his high fold to bet number on the river, but as Lestat said, he's not folding legitimate hands. My error.

Getting a good read through stats is often pretty tricky. I've recently been trying to get a better handle on my opponents play with stats, but its still tough. I wish I had better wisdom to offer on this subject.