I have been around

[ohnonotthat]

the world eight times and seen three world fairs but I have never seen anything like this. (Borrowed WITH permission from a dear friend who indeed has).

No, seriously - how long can it go on ?

I know the answer is - at least in theory - indefinitely but this is getting serious ! ! !

- Not quite bridge jumping time yet but if it continues much longer, well . . .

I am not getting my share of playable starting hands and we all know that at the lower limits that this alone can cause some insane downswings; it's obviously a problem at any level but at 3-6 and the like it's a major determinant of short term results since. Within a 10,000-20,000 hand run I'll take the guy/girl who gets just a few more playable starting hands over the expert who runs average every time.


That said, if I am averaging 2.8 big bets per 100 hands - a nice living for a young guy playing 3-4 tables of 3/6 (I had it THIS close to 3 bets for a long while and yes this does include rakeback) at what point does the slump become a major source of concern ?

- This is not a bankroll question; a few good runs plus an adequately funded start 2+ years ago have made it unlikely that bankroll will ever again be an issue - using the formula(s) espoused here I am likely "playing for minimum wage" to quote one of Mr. Malmuth's old adages; it's likely I could be earning more at 10-20 especially if I chose games carefully. I can and have won at this level but since the smaller games may punish but does not crucify one for the occasional (assuming they are occasional) lapses in total focus on the game I devote upwards of 75% of my playing time 3/6-5/10.

O.K. - enough backround (and enough rambling :-).

I have not allowed any of the following to occur.

*

- I do not tilt; I cannot even imagine it ever occuring.

- I have not gotten full of myself to where I now feel I can play almost any two since I can "make up ground on the later streets"; I have added a few hands to the list but the keyword here is "few".

- I have not become enamored with wildly clever plays; no FPS here.

- I have not allowed scorching beats to cause me to get timid; if the situation calls for a raise I raise. (FWIW I have always thought of this as a close relative of tilting).

- I have not become overly predictable; I have multiple accounts at all the sites I play. (For those who think this unethical, I'll stop when I am guaranteed everyone else has . . . In other words, no time soon).

*

So then, what is the consensus explanation for a 200+ big bet dive in the last month ? It is growing as we speak; 300 is right over that next hill.

*

AA every 221st hand is fine over the course of a year but we have all gone 1,000+ hands without them only to watch as they're cracked the first few times they reappear.

Ditto for flopping sets - especially to small pairs that are almost worthless without improvement. I'm sure we have all gone 100+ times without flopping a set, then flop three in a round only to think fondly of when we were missing. (Ouch)

I do realize that while [we hope] rare, 200-300 bet dives will occur - but in a month ?

When does the bleeding stop being a nuisance and begin becoming a concern ?

"Please be assured that the preceeding is not mindless whining"; I don't do mindless whining (nor mindful whining if there is such a thing).

*

I am hoping for a few thoughts from those of you who are in the 2+ bet/100 hand range relating to the length of your nastiest downswing although all replies are greatly appreciated.

*

Below, for those who enjoy reading of such things are a few of the choicer gems from this collection; be reasonably certain that if I bothered to mention it it has occurred more than once. If you want true horror tales of getting taken off by perfect-perfect you'll need to look elsewhere.

Those NEVER even out but how can they ?

If you find yourself in need of running miracles to win a hand more than once in a great while you are going to get there alot more often than I will.

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*

*

- Late poster calls with 6-4/s after everyone else folds to my UTG raise with KK or QQ and gets there.

- His call was not wrong but how often can he make that hand good against an overpair ?

- BB calls EP raise with a ragged [unsuited] Ace or King and takes off AK. (This is a major pet peeve).

- Suited trash calls a raise from two overcards in his suit and gets there. (Another pet peeve).

- Looses player at the table 3-bets and despite a huge raising range always has AA when I happen to stumble over KK.

Small PP calls when I have big overpair and rivers runner-runner to a tiny one-card flush to snap my set.

*

Note that these are not necessarily horrendous plays (though few could be called good).

Sigh - gotta run.

99 just called a cap on the flop (A-8-6) and turn (Q) to spike his set on the river and take off both my 88 and the button's 66.

He's about to tell us all how astrology was the reason he made the calls. (Yes, he is serious).

Is it a bad idea to work mention "Uranus" if he asks what I think ?

- O.K. so it's a really old (and bad) joke but the thing is . . .

*

What's this ?

Raise 88 first in from cutoff and get reraised by button.

We both check the flop of A-K-J and the off-suit running deuces on the turn/river.

I beat his 77.

For four solid weeks those 7's were 9's.

- Obviously I am gratefully acceptant of the slightest bit of good fortune as well as anything remotely resembling an omen. :-)

I look forward to any and all replies and again - thanks to all who take the time to do so.

This was hastily written - the above gratitude is not extended to those with nothing better to do than seek minor gramatical/spelling/syntactical errors.

That is MY job ! :-)

[admiralfluff]

The only thing that can help you is one hell of a limerick.

krishan?

[waffle]

Good idea. I'll copy Catt's.

[ QUOTE ]

This is a dim-witted post;
The kind that we all hate the most;
A jumble of stats,
Or downswinging “Rats!”
Like a virus in search of a host.


[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If you are a good, winning player,
As opposed to a chip-spewing brayer,
Get back to the felt,
Play the hands that you’re dealt,
And soon you’ll be doing OKer.


[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Take my advice, please, you unthinking clod,
In the form of this good-natured prod,
This won’t help your game,
But will get you flamed,
Stop posting this crap! Where’s the Mod?


[/ QUOTE ]

You keep a bad beat log? Sucks to be you. Don't spend your energy finding out if you're running bad or not, spend it finding out if you're playing optimally or not.