Party 200, getting my 130BB into a 7BB pot oop.

[SlyAK]

[ QUOTE ]

If you're going to bet-3bet this flop, then raising the pot is making it $90. At that point you'd have $170 behind and $190 in the pot if your opponent just called (although who knows what he'd need to do that.) If I'm bet-3-betting, I think I'm short enough to make that 3-bet a push. I'd love to be able to bet pot and get raised pot on this flop...that makes this easier. I bet $14, get raised to $48, and pushing my last $200 is a 2x pot raise. I just don't think this opponent likes betting big - I'm working with a small sample size, but almost no one else at 200NL likes raising pot either.

[/ QUOTE ]


Even better is overbetting a little bit, say $18, then if he raises the pot he makes it $60ish and then pushing.... I think I like leading for slightly over the pot now that I think about the hand more. That just makes the 3-bet all-in not AS much of an overbet.

Sly

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
260(.45)-127 = 10BB

so if we open shove this flop and get called by AA every time the play costs 20 bucks long term.

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

This part at least I realize. I semibluff plenty, and it's great when everyone else folds. But at some point it has to become more profitable to wait until a later street to get the money in, right? Either that or your opponents are folding too much and you should bluff every scare card you can. (Again...right?) At some point your flop semibluff must be a big enough multiple of the pot that your equity versus the calling hands isn't enough to make the play even +EV, although we're a long way from this point in the posted hand. With the hand under consideration I think we're only talking about what's most +EV since something _clearly_ is, and if we accept that bet-3bet becomes -EV at some stack size I'm curious when/what other lines come into play. I'm certainly willing to accept that bet-3bet is the best line here - it's what I did, but it felt a little odd given stack/pot ratio and I started thinking about when it wouldn't be good.

How many BB do you need behind to flat-call the flop raise? Or is there always a play you prefer to a call on this flop?

[wtfsvi]

You post good.

I'm with calling the flop raise here. A crucial point is that you say you don't give him credit for competent pot control. If raising the flop with the intention of checking behind on the turn is probably an unknown concept to him, I'm flat calling this. Both because it increases my implied odds and because it makes it less likely that a (small) raise like this represents a marginal holding that he will happilly drop to a 3-bet.

Another benefit to calling is that the bets/raises you have seen from him are small, so he's likely to give you good odds to draw on the turn.

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
Another benefit to calling is that the bets/raises you have seen from him are small, so he's likely to give you good odds to draw on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yup. I ended up pushing the flop and he folded, but it didn't feel right overbetting that much. I like this hand a lot as an exercise in pot control (or lack thereof).

Thanks for the input guys.

[imported_anacardo]

[ QUOTE ]
going to bed now. hopefully sly will give you a better response. here's one part of it

260(.45)-127 = 10BB

so if we open shove this flop and get called by AA every time the play costs 20 bucks long term.

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

There's something about the term "open-shove" that's more aesthetically satisfying than "open-push."

In short, I want to bet - push this flop because I'm a frickin' baby who doesn't want to plan the turn and river.

I like your plan of two check-raise attempts if you hit on the turn, but I have no idea whatsoever for a blank turn card.

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
In short, I want to bet - push this flop because I'm a frickin' baby who doesn't want to plan the turn and river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Nooooo. Easy answers are boring [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

The interesting part of this hand, IMO, is that as we increase stack size then somewhere along the line the bet-3bet is actually -EV. (I don't know where that happens, but just to prove a point - say we have 1,000,000BB and 40% equity when a bet-3bet is called. It's going to be called often enough to make it very -EV.) Now clearly we're nowhere near the point where it's actually -EV, but I'm just wondering if there are lines that're more +EV.

[ QUOTE ]
I like your plan of two check-raise attempts if you hit on the turn, but I have no idea whatsoever for a blank turn card.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I'm going to get pushed off my hand on the turn. I do run into interesting questions if I bet-call the flop, the turn gets checked through, and I river an ace or queen. And yea, I like the two-check-raise attempt idea too. I don't often try it because it makes me nervous, but I think there's something to it.