a semi-bluff out of position

[krishanleong]

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I prefer to pick my spots to semibluff when there is a large % of time my opponent will fold rather that having a large # of outs if he calls.

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I just got done from my workout and I was thinking about this and I think it's bloody brillant so I'm quoting myself. 90% of the turn semi-bluff check raises are with openended straight flush 13+ out draws. They aren't necessarily favorable spots from a hand reading perspective. Here is a hand that I thought was brilliant. Played by a likely 2+2er against a slightly weak tighty.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop:
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB folds.

Final Pot: 7.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
No showdown. Button wins 7.50 BB. </font>

Button showed QJo.

Krishan

[stinkypete]

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The turn cr screams I'm on a draw. Why would you blast away the field if you had a T?

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i'm not convinced... there's 2 flush draws and straight draws out there. if i have a ten i'm raising here and making the draws pay as much as possible. on the other hand, if i'm on a big draw and i don't think i have lot of fold equity, i'd much rather call and keep others in.

EDIT: i realized that you probably meant that checkraising as opposed to betting out with a ten would be retarded. you're right about that.

and also... even if the turn CR does scream draw, the fishy doesn't necessarily know that. i've been trying to work on my hand-reading at this game in the past few weeks, trying to avoid making bad bluffs/value bets, etc, but if there's one thing i've noticed, it's that these opponents don't think rationally and giving them credit for rational thought is -EV.

[krishanleong]

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giving them credit for rational thought is -EV.

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Rationalizing semi-bluffs by saying fish don't think won't make you a better player. I don't think it's a really bad turn semi-bluff. No semi-bluff is that bad when you have a gazillion outs.

Krishan

[krishanleong]

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i'm not convinced... there's 2 flush draws and straight draws out there. if i have a ten i'm raising here and making the draws pay as much as possible. on the other hand, if i'm on a big draw and i don't think i have lot of fold equity, i'd much rather call and keep others in.

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It almost sounds like you are arguing against a semi-bluff. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I know what you are saying though. A T could cr the turn here.

Krishan

[stinkypete]

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Rationalizing semi-bluffs by saying fish don't think won't make you a better player.

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if by "better player" you mean someone that will do better at higher limits against tough opponents, i agree. if by "better player" you mean someone that can extract a lot of money from bad players, i disagree.

[stinkypete]

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I prefer to pick my spots to semibluff when there is a large % of time my opponent will fold rather that having a large # of outs if he calls.

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i think the opponent folds this often enough since his bets don't necessarily mean strength. having more outs just means he doesn't have to fold as often for the play to be correct.

[krishanleong]

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Rationalizing semi-bluffs by saying fish don't think won't make you a better player.

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if by "better player" you mean someone that will do better at higher limits against tough opponents, i agree. if by "better player" you mean someone that can extract a lot of money from bad players, i disagree.

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I mostly mean the first. Once in a while you get someone who doesn't hand read well in small stakes saying stuff like, "bet because they will call" without actually putting opponents on hands. The argument is players are bad, bet.

Which is of course not a very good argument.

I reread the second and still can't understand what it means. You should never make a play because people play bad in a general way. (This was NOT the main motivation for your cr) That's all I'm saying.

Krishan

[krishanleong]

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I prefer to pick my spots to semibluff when there is a large % of time my opponent will fold rather that having a large # of outs if he calls.

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i think the opponent folds this often enough since his bets don't necessarily mean strength. having more outs just means he doesn't have to fold as often for the play to be correct.

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I agree. I took a longer more detailed look and I like it. I think Villian does fold the river often enough. I think the turn is good too. On the turn his likely hands are a draw, a t or a pair. On the river it's a draw, or pair (no T).

Krishan

[helpmeout]

semi bluffs seem to work once every blue moon in the meantime you end up betting the river and getting called by a pair of 8s or something similar

preflop call isnt even close its a suited 2 gapper easy easy call

[Danenania]

My preferred semibluff is to checkraise the flop and then fire 2 more barrels.