dazed and confused

imported_stealthcow · #1 08-05-2005, 08:01 PM

what the hell line do you take from here ?

bb is a 37/24/3.5 over 40 hands. no read on him
co is a 65/0 over 17 hands. i've been pretty tight at the table so far.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, CO calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, CO bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, CO folds, Hero...

DCWGaming · #2 08-05-2005, 08:15 PM

I put him on a Q with a low-mid kicker. But he also might be overplaying a flushdraw. With a LAG like that he could really have alot of hands.

If I was playing that hand, id probably call and fold the turn unimproved.

But thinking harder about it, I think a more interesting play would be capping the flop and taking it from there. If he leads out on the turn you know for sure to get out of the hand. If not, you can take your free river, or bet/fold it and take a free showdown.

Anybody like my idea? Its not what I would normally do but the more I think about it, the more I like it.

joker122 · #3 08-05-2005, 08:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
But thinking harder about it, I think a more interesting play would be capping the flop and taking it from there. If he leads out on the turn you know for sure to get out of the hand. If not, you can take your free river, or bet/fold it and take a free showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

what's the point of capping? the 3bet is all i need to know that i'm beat.

Catt · #4 08-05-2005, 08:34 PM

Call flop 3-bet. Call turn. Re-evaluate on river. You're getting 12:1 on the flop call with 5 outs to 2-pair or trips, and you'll be getting ~8:1 on his turn lead. Forty hands isn't much and he could just be having a good run of cards to get those stats -- I might call or fold the river UI if it is possible he plays an 8 this way. I think raising here or the turn is significantly likely to fold a losing hand and get -three bet by a better hand, and if he's behind he has like 4 outs at best (gutshot) unless he could possibly play a FD this way or would be nutsy enough to play a lone 3 this way.

This is a really weird way to play a flush draw, so I am discounting the threat of a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] FD pretty significantly. It seems a more likely approach for a weak made hand (he checks intending to C/R your flop bet to face CO with 2 and goes ahead with the plan even after CO leads). Could be a set of 3's too in which case we're in real trouble, but this feels to me like a good hand to look him up on, particularly with your decent hand and the chances to improve. Any read on his post-flop tendencies could alter my suggested line.

DCWGaming · #5 08-05-2005, 08:57 PM

The point of capping -

I think if you cap, he is very likely to check the turn to you. If he does you paid 1sb for the river, and did 1 of 2 things - You either made him slow down with a hand he was overplaying (he's 37/24, he could very easily have a bare queen), or you made him slow down with a monster and he missed the turn/river bets.

And as an added bonus, if you do hit an 8 or A on the turn or river after doing that, and end up beating his Qx or Q3 - a 37/24/3.5 is very likely to become more aggressive after realizing he made the mistake of giving away free cards like that.

And if he leads out on the turn after a cap you can be 100% sure you are beaten and lay it down easily.

Nobody likes the idea? I think i still stand by it :P

luckyharr · #6 08-05-2005, 09:09 PM

If the villain thinks you are raising light against the fishy CO, then he can three bet you here with a wider range of hands than just top pair. Without a read, I would call this down. Against a player who initially appears to be on the Laggy side, I think this remains a calldown.

Catt · #7 08-05-2005, 09:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The point of capping -

I think if you cap, he is very likely to check the turn to you. If he does you paid 1sb for the river, and did 1 of 2 things - You either made him slow down with a hand he was overplaying (he's 37/24, he could very easily have a bare queen), or you made him slow down with a monster and he missed the turn/river bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think we have any reason to believe that he won't lead the turn after a cap. If he's as aggressive as you think he is after a 40-hand statistical read, he is in fact not terribly likely to check to you on the turn. I'm also not thrilled to cap in the hopes of checking through the turn holding my pair of 8's.

[ QUOTE ]
And as an added bonus, if you do hit an 8 or A on the turn or river after doing that, and end up beating his Qx or Q3 - a 37/24/3.5 is very likely to become more aggressive after realizing he made the mistake of giving away free cards like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

This benefit requires the parlay of: (1) he doesn't lead the turn; (2) you hit; and (3) he goes nuts with a worse hand -- I think the parlay itself is very unlikely because even overaggro donks slow down when an A hits the board and you come alive or an 8 hits and you come alive and he doesn't have an 8.

[ QUOTE ]
And if he leads out on the turn after a cap you can be 100% sure you are beaten and lay it down easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you be 100% sure you're beat if this guy is as aggro as you think? And how easy is it to lay down to this apparently aggro guy getting 8.5 to 1 if you think it is likely that A/8 outs may be good?

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody likes the idea? I think i still stand by it :P

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like it at all against an unknown. I'll save my fancy moves for those players about whom I have a reasonably good idea of their likely response to an unknown.

This hand is played very strangely depending on what he's got, and his stats over a short period are a bit funny and hard to intrepret. With a small chance that I'm good, a decent chance to improve, and not unattractive effective odds to call down, I'd like to see a SD and learn what (1) he calls in the BB with; (2) ck-3bets on the flop with; and (3) takes to showdown on this board. Even if he shows 33 (which seems an almost reasonable hand to play this way) I still learn that he's willing to take a somewhat strange flop line with that hand; most other hands he's holding took a very weird route to SD here and I'd consider that valuable info at the cost of what I see to be not horrible effective odds given my hand.

Entity · #8 08-05-2005, 09:42 PM

I get myself to a [censored] showdown, unless the board gets *really* ugly.

Guy McSucker · #9 08-06-2005, 06:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]

You're getting 12:1 on the flop call with 5 outs to 2-pair or trips, and you'll be getting ~8:1 on his turn lead.

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You're only getting 6-1 on the flop. It's two more back to you. If you think you are behind you need to fold.

Guy.

wheelz · #10 08-06-2005, 06:33 AM

Hurry and edit that post before someone else notices guy... you are getting 12:1 [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]